Three Essays In Asset Bubbles Banking And Macroeconomics

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Three Essays In Asset Bubbles Banking And Macroeconomics

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015

Three Essays In Asset Bubbles Banking And Macroeconomics written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.

Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Banking

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Author : Lulei Song
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Banking written by Lulei Song and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.

My dissertation covers three loosely connected topics in Macroeconomics and Banking. The first chapter, titled Effect of Failed Bank Mergers During the Crisis on Cost Efficiency, examines the effect of merging with failed banks during the crisis period on the acquiring banks' cost X-efficiency. Between December 31, 2006, and Decem- ber 31, 2010, the number of U.S. commercial banks and savings institutions declined significantly because of failures. The majority of failed banks were acquired by the existing banks. I utilize the Fourier flexible cost function form to estimate the cost X-efficiency, and find out that merging with failed banks does negatively affect the cost X-efficiency of the acquiring bank. Although the local market concentration does not change much after the merger, the decrease in cost X-efficiency may still indicate the increase of market power for acquiring banks. With the evolving technology, the cost of obtaining banking service from distant providers fell a lot compared with 30 or 40 years ago. Local market concentration may no longer be a good measure of market competitiveness, and the FDIC may need to develop other more relevant measures regarding merger regulations. The second chapter, titled Financial Regulation and Stability of the Banking System, builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes both regulated and unregulated banks to study the effect of the capital requirement, which is imposed only on regulated banks, on the stability of the financial system. One of the most distinctive features of the recent financial crisis is the turmoil of the financial market. Financial institutions with high leverage were the first to bear the brunt, and the chain effect caused by their bankruptcy led the economy into a prolonged depression. In order to stabilize the financial market and prevent financial institutions from taking excessive risks, the government imposed capital requirements on the regulated banks. However, a large number of financial institutions, which perform similar functions as regulated banks, are not under government regulation. In this paper, I build a model which includes both regulated banks, referred to as commercial banks, and unregulated banks, referred to as shadow banks, to study and quantify the effects of capital requirements on the stability of the financial system. I find that when the capital requirement is high enough to help commercial banks to survive the bank runs, it does help to alleviate the negative impact of the crisis. However, if the capital requirement is not high enough, increasing capital requirements only causes decreased net output but does not help to stabilize consumption and capital price during the crisis. The third chapter is titled The Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Price Volatility: Evidence from Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach. The great financial recession in 2007 - 2009 reactivated the discussion of the effect and the focus of monetary policies. Some researchers argue that whether the monetary authority should take action to fight against the asset price bubbles prior to 2007 aside from targeting inflation and GDP gap. However, one important fact that often get ne- glected is that the volatility of the financial market is also closely related to monetary policy shocks, and it has an important impact on economic output and unemployment in the economy. This paper utilizes two empirical methods, constant parameter structural vector auto-regression and time-varying parameter vector auto-regression, to study the relationship between monetary policy and financial market volatility. I find that under these two different methods, the financial market volatility responds differently to the monetary policy shocks.

Three Essays On Asset Bubbles And Contagion Over Financial Networks

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Author : YUE. Shen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015

Three Essays On Asset Bubbles And Contagion Over Financial Networks written by YUE. Shen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.

Three Essays On Public Money Creation Endogenous Bank Credit Creation And Remaining Empirical Issues

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Author : Hongkil Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Three Essays On Public Money Creation Endogenous Bank Credit Creation And Remaining Empirical Issues written by Hongkil Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Credit categories.

This dissertation examines the interconnectedness between money/credit creation and its empirical relevance to macroeconomic variables. It takes the position that the amount of money/credit created for GDP-related transactions inevitably influences the business cycle and inflation while the money/credit extension for non-GDP based transactions (mainly for purchasing financial assets) helps explain movements of interest rates, exchange rates, and an asset bubble/crash. With this approach, the main objectives of this dissertation is to demonstrate that 1) excess bank credit creation/depletion for households' spending is crucial in explaining US inflation, 2) the European Central Bank could successfully contain pressures in struggling sovereign bond markets, relying on its unique power to create its currency (the Euro) and 3) interest rate exogeneity is, if not theoretically impossible, difficult to attain due to market psychology and endogenous credit creation. Having recognized effects of money/credit creation on a macroeconomic environment, the dissertation naturally proceeds to suggest policy proposals that guide credit creation and allocation of credit for productive purposes and assign a proper role for public money creation to counter ebb and flow of private credit creation.

Three Essays On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Target Interest Rates On Bank Distress And Systemic Risk

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Author : Mustafa Akcay
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Three Essays On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Target Interest Rates On Bank Distress And Systemic Risk written by Mustafa Akcay and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.

My dissertation topic is on the impact of changes in the monetary policy interest rate target on bank distress and systemic risk in the U.S. banking system. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 had devastating effects on the banking system worldwide. The feeble performance of financial institutions during the crisis heightened the necessity of understanding systemic risk exhibited the critical role of monitoring the banking system, and strongly necessitated quantification of the risks to which banks are exposed, for incorporation in policy formulation. In the aftermath of the crisis, US bank regulators focused on overhauling the then existing regulatory framework in order to provide comprehensive capital buffers against bank losses. In this context, the Basel Committee proposed in 2011, the Basel III framework in order to strengthen the regulatory capital structure as a buffer against bank losses. The reform under Basel III framework aimed at raising the quality and the quantity of regulatory capital base and enhancing the risk coverage of the capital structure. Separately, US bank regulators adopted the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) to implement stress tests on systemically important bank holding companies (SIBs). Concerns about system-wide distress have broadened the debate on banking regulation towards a macro prudential approach. In this context, limiting bank risk and systemic risk has become a prolific research field at the crossroads of banking, macroeconomics, econometrics, and network theory over the last decade (Kuritzkes et al., 2005; Goodhart and Sergoviano, 2008; Geluk et al., 2009; Acharya et al., 2010, 2017; Tarashev et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2012; Browless and Engle, 2012, 2017 and Cummins, 2014). The European Central Bank (ECB) (2010) defines systemic risk as a risk of financial instability "so widespread that it impairs the functioning of a financial system to the point where economic growth and welfare suffer materially." While US bank regulators and policy-makers have moved to strengthen the regulatory framework in the post-crisis period in order to prevent another financial crisis, a growing recent line of research has suggested that there is a significant link between monetary policy and bank distress (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist, 1999; Borio and Zhu, 2008; Gertler and Kiyotaki, 2010; Delis and Kouretas, 2010; Gertler and Karadi, 2011; Delis et al., 2017). In my research, I examine the link between the monetary policy and bank distress. In the first chapter, I investigate the impact of the federal funds rate (FFR) changes on the banking system distress between 2001 and 2013 within an unrestricted vector auto-regression model. The Fed used FFR as a primary policy tool before the financial crisis of 2007-2009, but focused on quantitative easing (QE) during the crisis and post-crisis periods when the FFR hit the zero bound. I use the Taylor rule rate (TRR, 1993) as an "implied policy rate", instead of the FFR, to account for the impact of QE on the economy. The base model of distress includes three macroeconomic indicators-real GDP growth, inflation, and TRR-and a systemic risk indicator (Expected capital shortfall (ES)). I consider two model extensions; (i) I include a measure of bank lending standards to account for the changes in the systemic risk due to credit tightening, (ii) I replace inflation with house price growth rate to see if the results remain robust. Three main results can be drawn. First, the impulse response functions (IRFs) show that raising the monetary policy rate contributed to insolvency problems for the U.S. banks, with a one percentage point increase in the rate raising the banking systemic stress by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, in the base and extend models. Second, variance decomposition (VDs) analysis shows that up to ten percent of error variation in systemic risk indicator can be attributed to innovations in the policy rate in the extended model. Third, my results supplement the view that policy rate hikes led to housing bubble burst and contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This is an example for how monetary policy-making gets more complex and must be conducted with utmost caution if there is a bubble in the economy. In the second chapter, I examine the prevalence and asymmetry of the effects on bank distress from positive and negative shocks to the target fed fund rate (FFR) in the period leading to the financial crisis (2001-2008). A panel model with three blocks of control variables is used. The blocks include: positive/negative FFR shocks, macroeconomic drivers, and bank balance sheet indicators. A distress indicator similar to Texas Ratio is used to proxy distress. Shocks to FFR are defined along the lines suggested by Morgan (1993). Three main results are obtained. First, FFR shocks, either positive or negative, raise bank distress over the following year. Second, the magnitudes of the effects from positive and negative shocks are unequal (asymmetric); a 100 bps positive (negative) shock raises the bank distress indicator (scaled from 0 to 1) by 9 bps (3 bps) over the next year. Put differently, after a 100 bps positive (negative) shock, the probability of bankruptcy rises from 10% to 19% (13%). Third, expanding operations into non-banking activities by FHCs does not benefit them in terms of distress due to unanticipated changes in the FFR as FFR shocks (positive or negative) create similar levels of distress for BHCs and FHCs. In the third chapter, I explore the systemic risk contributions of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from 2001 to 2015 by using the expected shortfall approach. Developed by analogy with the component expected shortfall concept, I decompose the aggregate systemic risk, as measured by expected shortfall, into several subgroups of banks by using publicly available balance sheet data to define the probability of bank default. The risk measure, thus, encompasses the entire universe of banks. I find that concentration of assets in a smaller number of larger banks raises systemic risk. The systemic risk contribution of banks designated as SIFIs increased sharply during the financial crisis and reached 74% at the end of 2015. Two-thirds of this risk contribution is attributed to the four largest banks in the U.S.: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. I also find that diversifying business operations by expanding into nontraditional operations does not reduce the systemic risk contribution of financial holding companies (FHCs). In general, FHCs are individually riskier than BHCs despite their more diversified basket of products; FHCs contribute a disproportionate amount to systemic risk given their size, all else being equal. I believe monetary policy-making in the last decade carries many lessons for policy makers. Particularly, the link between the monetary policy target rate and bank distress and systemic risk is an interesting topic by all accounts due to its implications and challenges (explained in more detail in first and second chapters). The literature studying the relation between bank distress and monetary policy is fairly small but developing fast. The models I investigate in my work are simple in many ways but they may serve as a basis for more sophisticated models.

Essays On Macroeconomic Effects Of Credit Market Fluctuations

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Author : Jagdish Tripathy
language : ca
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

Essays On Macroeconomic Effects Of Credit Market Fluctuations written by Jagdish Tripathy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.

This dissertation includes three chapters on the macroeconomic effects of the financial system, particularly the credit market. In the first chapter, I show a causal link between household credit supply and economic activity using an exogenous shock to household credit supply by Spanish banks in Mexico resulting from macroprudential regulations in Spain. I use the variation in exposure to this shock across Mexican municipalities as a natural experiment and measure the elasticity of lending to the non-tradable sector to changes in household credit ranging from 1.6-3.5. In the second chapter, I show that the Spanish regulations did not affect lending to Mexican firms by Spanish banks. I use firm-level data to show that firms with multiple bank relationships did not experience a change in loan-terms (in levels and interest rates) of marginal credit offered by Spanish banks vis-a-vis the terms offered by non-Spanish banks. I write a theoretical model that accounts for the asymmetric effect of the Spanish regulations on lending to firms and households based on the relationship rents earned by banks depending upon the proprietary information held by them on a given borrower. In the third chapter, I study the effect of asset bubbles in the presence of financial frictions and heterogeneous projects. I consider an economy with two sectors - a productive, financially constrained sector and an unproductive sector with lower levels of financial constraints. Financial constraints create conditions for the existence of asset bubbles. Asset bubbles, in turn, raise interest rates and lower investment productivity by directing financial resources away from the financially constrained, productive sector to the less constrained, unproductive sector. Such bubbles guide the economy to steady states with low levels of consumption that I call bubbly growth traps.

Three Essays On Growth And Development With Financial Market

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Author : Inka Brahmantyo Yusgiantoro
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013

Three Essays On Growth And Development With Financial Market written by Inka Brahmantyo Yusgiantoro and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.

The objective of this dissertation is to understand the role of financial market in economic development, particularly its economy-wide impact on income inequality, poverty, and employment. To accomplish this task, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (FCGE) model with linkage to the financial market is constructed, which conforms to the specific developing economy analyzed in this dissertation. In the first chapter, I construct the model to evaluate the distribution and poverty impact of saving and investment imbalances. I apply the model framework to a financial social accounting matrix data from Indonesia, an open market economy that has experienced persistent trend of excessive domestic savings since the 1997 East Asia financial crisis. The model is calibrated for 2006-10 such that the equilibrium solutions reproduce benchmark data on key macroeconomic indicators. Counterfactual scenarios are simulated to derive conclusions about the implication of excess saving on macroeconomic performances and welfare. The results indicate that when banks increase their portfolio share of risk-free financial assets, credit channeled to private sector's investment is reduced, which leads to higher income inequality, slower pace of poverty reduction, and higher rate of unemployment. I conclude that an expansionary monetary policy offers an effective way to respond an excess saving trend in order to achieve sustainable and equitable growth. The second chapter examines rebalancing strategies for sustainable and inclusive growth in Indonesia. It has been revealed in the previous chapter that excess saving trend in the aftermath of the 1997 financial crisis has ripple effects on income distribution, poverty reduction, and employment creation. Therefore, policy options that emphasize the quality and growth of both private and public investment should be of utmost importance to improve saving and investment imbalances in the economy. Further rebalancing efforts should also include promoting more public spending in rural areas, enhancing good governance on public outlays, increasing economic efficiency and productivity, sharpening comparative advantage, and expanding intra-regional trade. Finally, counterfactual scenarios are experimented with the use of dynamic FCGE model to highlight the significance of developing Indonesia's capital goods industries in order to reduce reliance on imports and increase employment in productive sectors. In the third chapter, an extended version of the dynamic FCGE model is employed to examine asset price bubble and evaluate its policy implication. Using general equilibrium as a basis for analysis, I generate an endogenous stock price bubble in the model economy through balance sheet adjustments. If corporate sector were to limit its leverage activities, excessive asset growth could be avoided and stability of the macroeconomic performances would be maintained. However, such case does not typically apply to low interest rate condition and strong business cycle trend, so I investigate policy simulations for fiscal restriction, monetary contraction, and policy mix to mitigate the impact of potential repercussions that stock price bubble can generate in the economy. The results indicate that standalone monetary policy is the most favorable option to implement corrective measures in preserving the natural growth of output, consumption and investment while minimizing the deteriorating welfare impact of policy enactment.

Essays On International Macroeconomics And Policy

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Author : Tian Xia
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Essays On International Macroeconomics And Policy written by Tian Xia and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.

As the world economy becomes rapidly integrated through the globalization of markets for goods and services, it is crucial to understand how cross-country linkages through goods and financial markets explain observed business cycles in data. Furthermore, interdependent open economies imply that optimal policy is unlikely to be responding to domestic shocks only. This dissertation studies various aspects of open economies from a macroeconomic perspective and discusses related theoretical policy implications. Chapter 1 investigates the implication of intermediate goods on optimal monetary policy in open economies, and in particular, focusing on the welfare gains from monetary cooperation. In a relatively standard two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with input-output relations, I demonstrate that introducing intermediate goods can amplify the welfare gains caused by cost-push shocks by an order of magnitude larger. A detailed analysis on the equilibrium dynamics highlights a new channel that is absent in the previous literature: non-cooperative central banks respond differently to shocks in the intermediate goods market versus shocks in the final goods market, even if these shocks generate the same distortions when the two central banks cooperate. Furthermore, I find that increasing the degree of openness in the intermediate goods market can reduce the welfare gains from monetary cooperation. This casts doubt on whether the recent trend in international economic integration may justify the potential need for international monetary cooperation. Chapter 2 develops a simple framework for computing equilibrium shares of trade currency invoicing in open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The solution method follows closely to Devereux and Sutherland (2011)'s method in solving portfolio choice by applying information from second-order approximations of equilibrium conditions to solving zero-order portfolio shares. The framework is flexible enough to be extended to a Rotemberg sticky price model. To illustrate the approach, I use a simple symmetric two-country model and show that the results are consistent with existing theoretical findings on how monetary policy affects exchange rate pass-through. Chapter 3 investigates the interaction between inequality and financial development in determining the condition for rational asset bubbles to emerge in general equilibrium. I develop a simple overlapping generations model (OLG) with a production economy and financial frictions, which shows that wage inequality can cause dynamic inefficiency in an economy with an underdeveloped financial sector. Furthermore, the model developed in the chapter indicates that trade integration can create asset bubbles through the channel of increasing inequality. The result is consistent with observations where developing countries with export-led growth seem to experience episodes of bubble-like asset price booms and busts in the last three decades.

Asset Price Bubbles

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Author : William Curt Hunter
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2005

Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.

A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.

Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications

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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-30

Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.