Three Essays On Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomic Models
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Three Essays On Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomic Models
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Three Essays On Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomic Models written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Decision making categories.
Three Essays On Adaptive Learning In Monetary Economics
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Author : Suleyman Cem Karaman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Three Essays On Adaptive Learning In Monetary Economics written by Suleyman Cem Karaman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Essays On Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomics And Finance
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Author : Martin Lettau
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Essays On Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomics And Finance written by Martin Lettau and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with categories.
Three Essays On Adaptive Learning Institutions And Multiple Equilibria
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Author : Laura Christina Steiger
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Three Essays On Adaptive Learning Institutions And Multiple Equilibria written by Laura Christina Steiger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business cycles categories.
Three Essays On The Solution And Estimation Of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
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Author : Anthony Alan Smith
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Three Essays On The Solution And Estimation Of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models written by Anthony Alan Smith and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Equilibrium (Economics) categories.
Three Essays In The Estimation Of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
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Author : Taeyoung Doh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Three Essays In The Estimation Of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models written by Taeyoung Doh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
On The Initialization Of Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomic Models
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Author : Michele Berardi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
On The Initialization Of Adaptive Learning In Macroeconomic Models written by Michele Berardi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Three Essays On Non Linear Effects In Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
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Author : Sara Alizadeh Miyandoab
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Three Essays On Non Linear Effects In Dynamic Macroeconomic Models written by Sara Alizadeh Miyandoab and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Essay On Beliefs And The Macroeconomy
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Author : Pooya Molavi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essay On Beliefs And The Macroeconomy written by Pooya Molavi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This thesis consists of three essays. The first essay explores a form of bounded rationality where agents learn about the economy with possibly misspecified models. I consider a recursive general-equilibrium framework that nests a large class of macroeconomic models. Misspecification is represented as a constraint on the set of beliefs agents can entertain. I introduce the solution concept of constrained-rational-expectations equilibrium (CREE), in which each agent selects the belief from her constrained set that is closest to the endogenous distribution of observables in the Kullback-Leibler divergence. If the set of permissible beliefs contains the rational-expectations equilibria (REE), then the REE are CREE; otherwise, they are not. I show that a CREE exists, that it arises naturally as the limit of adaptive and Bayesian learning, and that it incorporates a version of the Lucas critique. I then apply CREE to a particular novel form of bounded rationality where beliefs are constrained to factor models with a small number of endogenously chosen factors. Misspecification leads to amplification or dampening of shocks and history dependence. The calibrated economy exhibits hump-shaped impulse responses and co-movements in consumption, output, hours, and investment that resemble business-cycle fluctuations. In the second essay, I ask the following question: What are the testable restrictions imposed on the dynamics of an agent's belief by the hypothesis of Bayesian rationality, which do not rely on the additional assumption that the agent has an objectively correct prior? In this paper, I argue that there are essentially no such restrictions. I consider an agent who chooses a sequence of actions and an econometrician who observes the agent's actions and is interested in testing the hypothesis that the agent is Bayesian. I argue that--absent a priori knowledge on the part of the econometrician on the set of models considered by the agent--there are almost no observations that would lead the econometrician to conclude that the agent is not Bayesian. This result holds even if the set of actions is sufficiently rich that the agent's action fully reveals her belief about the payoff-relevant state and even if the econometrician observes a large number of identical agents facing the same sequence of decision problems. In the third essay, I propose an equilibrium search and matching model with permanent worker heterogeneity, asymmetric information, and endogenous separations and study the dynamics of adverse selection in the labor market. The interaction between asymmetric information and endogenous separations leads to a cyclical adverse selection problem that has testable predictions both for the aggregate variables and for individual workers' outcomes. First, a deterioration in the distribution of ability in the pool of the unemployed leads firms to raise their hiring standards, thus resulting in shifting out of the Beveridge curve. Second, if the separation rate is log-supermodular (log-submodular) in productivity and ability, the pool of the unemployed becomes more (less) adversely selected in downturns. Third, firms rationally discriminate against the long-term unemployed by demanding more unequivocally positive signals of their ability before hiring them. Fourth, this scarring effect is more (less) severe for lower-ability workers and after deeper recessions if the separation rate is log-supermodular (log-submodular). I conclude by providing conditions on the fundamentals of the economy that lead to log-supermodular and log-submodular separation rates.
Essays On Granularity And Machine Learning In Macroeconomics
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Author : Maximilian Jochen Vogler
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Essays On Granularity And Machine Learning In Macroeconomics written by Maximilian Jochen Vogler and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three independent chapters on granularity in macroeconomics and machine learning methods designed to solve the methodological challenges imposed by granular models, i.e. models with many different individual agents, firms or countries.In the first chapter, which is co-authored with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Galo Nuno and George Sorg-Langhans, we develop a deep-learning algorithm to globally solve high-dimensional dynamic programming problems that result from granular macroeconomic models. We evaluate our methodology in a standard neoclassical growth model and then demonstrate its power in two high-dimensional granular applications - a model of dynamic capital allocation and a model of migration and labor mobility.In the second chapter, which is co-authored with Cecile Gaubert and Oleg Itskhoki, we focus on the importance of considering a granular firm distribution for government policy in an international trade setting, highlighting three implications: (i) In antitrust regulation, governments face an incentive to be overly lenient towards domestic mergers in comparative advantage sectors. (ii) In trade policy, targeting individual foreign exporters shifts the burden of tariffs from domestic consumers towards foreign producers. (iii) In industrial policy, while generally suboptimal in a closed economy subsidizing 'national champions' can be unilaterally welfare improving in an open economy.In the third chapter, I demonstrate the importance of considering granularity at the country level by demonstrating that economic crises drive cross-country migration. I show in an event study setting that net migration caused by the Euro crisis accounts for roughly 21% of all migration from EU countries into Germany between 2010-2019. In addition I highlight three salient facts: (i) This increase is mostly due to inflows rather than outflows. (ii) The migration response evolves gradually and achieves its maximum size only after five years. (iii) There is strong evidence for hysteresis.