Three Essays On Agricultural And Catastrophic Risk Management
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Three Essays On Agricultural And Catastrophic Risk Management
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Author : Shu-Ling Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Three Essays On Agricultural And Catastrophic Risk Management written by Shu-Ling Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
In this dissertation, I examine three issues related to agricultural and catastrophic risk management. In my first essay, "Modeling Yield Distribution in High Risk Counties: Application to Texas Upland Cotton", I develop models of yield distributions for crops and regions whose yields exhibit irregular behavior. Specifically, I undertake a statistical case study of Texas upland cotton, which in recent years has exhibited poor actuarial performance under the U.S. crop insurance program, and propose an alternative mixture distribution model in which the conditional distribution of yield depends upon an observable drought index. The results indicate that the mixture distribution model provides a better fit to the data than conventional parametric distributions and, for more than two-thirds of the Texas counties examined, implies Group Risk Plan insurance premium rates that are greater than those currently published by the U.S. Department of Agricultural Risk Management Agency.
Three Essays On Complex Contractual Networks Of Farmers
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Author : Min Su Jun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Three Essays On Complex Contractual Networks Of Farmers written by Min Su Jun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
In Essay 1, I examine the effects of systemic weather shocks on agricultural producers, agricultural lenders, and rural communities in the northern Malawi and the potential benefits of using weather index insurance as a catastrophic risk management tool. To this end, I develop an agent-based model (ABM) of a hypothetical rural community and the model is calibrated to study the northern Malawi area. I simulate the system-wide impacts of catastrophic weather events and how weather index insurance can be used to mitigate adverse impacts of these events. The model generates results that are consistent with the theoretical and empirical findings that have been published to date on the impacts of weather index insurance when used to support agricultural credit. My simulations also generate novel findings regarding the system-wide impacts of catastrophic weather shocks and the potential benefits of index insurance. In particular, I find that if financial institutions purchase index insurance, they will be able to supply significant extra credit only when the area faces a similar or more severe drought that occurs one in fifty years according to the historical record. In Essay 2, I examine the potential benefits of index insurance by answering more detailed questions. The first question addressed is whether financial institutions have economic motivation to supply additional credit to households if they insure their portfolios using weather index insurance. I find that financial institutions can expect higher profits when utilizing indemnities to supply additional credit than when just holding them. The second question addressed is whether insurance can increase financial inclusion of marginal smallholder households. Specifically, I test whether insuring loan portfolios against weather catastrophes can promote reduction of interest rates offered by banks to smallholder farmers. I find that meso-index insurance could promote reduction of the interest rates for the borrower classes that have the lowest credit rating. Lastly, I test whether a counter-cyclical capital requirement can boost the systemic benefits of meso-index insurance. Due to the pressure on credit supply from the capital requirement and the higher interest rates needed to cover insurance premiums, synergies between insurance and counter-cyclic capital requirement policies do not appear to exist. In Essay 3, I estimate oligopolistic power of major U.S. grain companies which might originate from their oligopsonistic positions to farmers. By extending the linear-quadratic model developed by Karp and Perloff (1989, 1993a, 1993b), the market conduct parameter is estimated in the open loop and the feedback equilibria. In the grain-processing sector, firms’ oligopoly power originates from the oligopolistic power exerted by firms over farmers. Thus, unlike the existing literature, an output quantity is expressed with the input (grain) quantity variable under assumption of CRS production technology. Each firm’s share of storage capacity is taken as a proxy of the firm’s input procurement. Although my result reject the hypothesis of perfect collusion, the do not reject the hypotheses of price taking behavior and the existence of a Nash-Cournot equilibrium.
Three Essays In Agricultural Insurance
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Author : Xianglin Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Three Essays In Agricultural Insurance written by Xianglin Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
In this dissertation, I present three essays studying agricultural insurance in both developing and developed countries. Farmers face numerous risks including production, price, financial, etc. In response, farmers may seek agricultural insurance to cover some of these risks. Different questions of rainfall insurance and crop insurance are considered in this dissertation, and natural experiment and Propensity Score Matching method are applied in measuring the impact a “treatment” on insurance participation rates for farmers. Chapter 1 is an extensive review of China’s agricultural insurance market. I first summarize the history of the market for agricultural insurance in China, which between 2007 and 2013 grew an average of 30% annually and is now the second largest market in the world. I then review major agricultural insurance programs introduced by the Chinese government during this period. I also identify the major challenges that have to be overcome to further develop agricultural insurance in China, and discuss reforms that have been proposed to address them. In Chapter 2, I estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical rainfall index insurance product, with a special interest in whether recent experience with a natural disaster increases the WTP. My findings are based on a survey of small farm households in China’s Heilongjiang Province, which suffered a large flood in the summer of 2013. I find a significantly higher propensity to purchase rainfall index insurance for farmers who experienced the flood in 2013 than farmers who did not. I also find a much higher WTP for rainfall index insurance for farmers affected by the flood. My findings imply that past experience in major disasters could alter farmers’ risk perception and lead to a higher demand for risk management tools such as crop insurance. In Chapter 3, I examine whether U.S. farmers using fixed-cash lease are more likely to purchase federal crop insurance (FCI). Farmland rental lease choice plays a significant role in farm management decision making. Fixed-cash agreement has become the most widely used leasing contract in the United States, despite the fact that it is riskier than other types of farmland leasing contracts. A propensity score matching method is used to compare FCI participation rate between farmers under fixed-cash rental contract and farmers under other types of leasing arrangement. By analyzing a farm-level national survey data, the results show that using fixed-cash rental agreement significantly increases FCI participation rate, providing evidence that FCI is adopted by farmers as an effective risk management tool to reduce production risks.
Three Essays On Agricultural Production And Household Income Risk Management In Uganda
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Author : Michael Mukembo Kidoido
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Three Essays On Agricultural Production And Household Income Risk Management In Uganda written by Michael Mukembo Kidoido and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Abstract: Poor soil fertility and unreliable rainfall are associated with crop failures in Uganda. However, adoption of technologies in Uganda is among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The first essay examines the impact of production risk on farmers' simultaneous use of high yielding maize varieties (HYM) and fertilizers. The study is implemented in two steps: the first step uses the flexible moments based approach to generate lagged output moments as proxy measures of production risk, the second step incorporates the lagged output moments in a technology adoption model. Simultaneous technology adoption decisions are estimated using a multinomial probit estimator. Results show that the expected output, the variance, and the probability of crop failure (skewness) are important factors affecting the adoption of the technology package. Other important factors include scale of production, access to extension services, access to credit, household assets, and access to output markets.
Three Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture
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Author : Nicholas D. Paulson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Three Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture written by Nicholas D. Paulson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Three Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture
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Author : Nicholas David Paulson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Three Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture written by Nicholas David Paulson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
The general theme of this dissertation is risk and uncertainty in agriculture, with each chapter addressing a specific topic related to agricultural risk and uncertainty. Chapter 2 examines the effects of production uncertainty on the types of contract structures used in specialty grain markets. A theoretical model of a contractual relationship between a monopsonistic processor and risk-neutral producers is presented. Two common contract structures, and their resulting effects on the sharing of production risk between buyer and seller, are compared. The spatial structure of yields and farm-level yield volatility are shown to have significant impacts on the processor's preferred choice of contract structure and expected profits of both the processor and farmers in the resulting equilibrium. Chapter 3 provides a critical look at a classic definition regarding the relationship between input use and risk, and attempts to reconcile an apparent paradox in the production literature. Experimental corn yield response data is used to estimate a stochastic production relationship between applied fertilizer, soil nutrient availability, and corn output. Optimal fertilizer application rates for risk-averse and risk-neutral producers are found using numerical methods. In addition to the empirical analysis, primary data collected through a farmer survey instrument, designed to elicit information from farmers regarding their risk attitudes and subjective beliefs regarding the relationship between risk and fertilizer use, is presented and compared with the results of the empirical analysis. Chapter 4 turns to the opportunities for managing weather risk using weather derivative markets. Developing regions are areas in which weather based risk management tools show significant potential. However, the success and long-term viability of insurance programs depends heavily on the availability of accurate and reliable historical data. The lack of this type of historical data for developing regions is one of the largest obstacles to insurance program development in these regions. A framework which utilizes statistical methods to estimate unbiased rainfall histories from sparse data is developed. To validate the methodology's usefulness, a drought insurance example is presented using a rich data set of historical rainfall at weather stations across the state of Iowa.
Dissertation Abstracts International
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Dissertation Abstracts International written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Dissertations, Academic categories.
Drought Risk Management A Strategic Approach
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Author : Speed, Robert
language : en
Publisher: UNESCO Publishing
Release Date : 2016-09-19
Drought Risk Management A Strategic Approach written by Speed, Robert and has been published by UNESCO Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-19 with categories.
Ecosystems Livelihoods And Disasters
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Author : Karen Sudmeier-Rieux
language : en
Publisher: IUCN
Release Date : 2006
Ecosystems Livelihoods And Disasters written by Karen Sudmeier-Rieux and has been published by IUCN this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Nature categories.
Vulnerability to natural disasters continues to increase, severely compromising the achievement of poverty alleviation goals in many developing countries. A more effective approach is needed to reduce the impacts of these disasters. This publication proposes an approach that integrates ecosystem management, development planning and risk reduction strategies to reduce disaster impacts and improve both livelihoods and biodiversity outcomes.
The Impact Of Disasters And Crises On Agriculture And Food Security 2021
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Author : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
language : en
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
Release Date : 2021-03-17
The Impact Of Disasters And Crises On Agriculture And Food Security 2021 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and has been published by Food & Agriculture Org. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-17 with Nature categories.
On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.