Three Essays On Economic Forecasting And Theory Examination
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Three Essays On Economic Forecasting And Theory Examination
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Author : Dong Yan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Three Essays On Economic Forecasting And Theory Examination written by Dong Yan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with categories.
In the first chapter, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap methods are used to compare the actual and nominal coverage probabilities of prediction intervals constructed using the Prais-Winsten modified weighted symmetric least squares (PW-MWSLS) estimation method. The evidence suggests that the PW-MWSLS estimator, the best point predictor, for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors also leads to prediction intervals with the most accurate coverage rates for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors. The second chapter employs an innovative methodology to construct inflation expectations by incorporating information in the commodity futures market. The empirical results from the vector dynamic system show that the constructed expected rate of inflation series provides the best in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts over the sample period under investigation. Chapter three applies the constructed time series of inflation expectations in the second chapter to examine two broadly debated topics in the field of economics, the Fisher effect and the Phillips curve. The findings provide support for the existence of the short-run Fisher effect; and for the examination of the two main alternative specifications of the Phillips curve, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, the empirical evidence is in favor of the former.
An Essay On The Theory Of Economic Prediction
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Author : Lawrence Robert Klein
language : en
Publisher: Chicago : Markham Publishing Company
Release Date : 1970
An Essay On The Theory Of Economic Prediction written by Lawrence Robert Klein and has been published by Chicago : Markham Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1970 with Business & Economics categories.
Three Essays In Development Economics
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Author : David Russell Hansen
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University
Release Date : 2011
Three Essays In Development Economics written by David Russell Hansen and has been published by Stanford University this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
This dissertation is composed of three chapters. All three deal with topics in development economics. The first chapter examines the effects on village institutions of introducing formal financial institution options into the village. The second addresses the effects of government policy on educational investment and crime. The third tests the explanatory power of various explanations of the gender gap in math test scores. The first chapter examines the effects of a transition from a ``traditional'' economy based on an uncertain source of income, with risk fully insured away by one's neighbors in a social network through costly network ties, to a ``modern'' economy in which some agents have access to partial insurance at a lower cost. A theoretical model is used to show that village social networks can break down as some members of the village no longer need the insurance the social network provides, producing a reduction in welfare (if the costs of reducing moral hazard are not too high) for at least some individuals and possibly the village as a whole. This loss of welfare can occur even when networks provide other benefits to those belonging to them and is likely to be heterogeneous, depending on the opportunities and networks available to individuals. This paper tests these predictions using Indonesian data to examine the effect of a change in the banking institutions available to a community on the strength of social networks (measured by community participation) and welfare (measured by household expenditure and by child health). The analysis finds that changing financial institution availability in general does not influence community participation or welfare, but that financial institutions that primarily serve certain groups do relatively reduce the welfare of households not in those groups, which is consistent with the hypotheses generated by the model. Crime is an important feature of economic life in many countries, especially in the developing world. Crime distorts many economic decisions because it acts like an unpredictable tax on earnings. In particular, the threat of crime may influence people's willingness to invest in schooling or physical capital. The second chapter explores the questions "What influence do crime rates and levels of investment have on one another?" and "How do government policies affect the relationship between investment and crime?" by creating a simple structural model of crime and educational investment and attempting to fit this model to Mexican data. A method of simulated moments procedure is used to estimate parameters of the model and the estimated parameters are then used to carry out policy simulations. The simulations show that increasing spending on police or increasing the severity of punishment reduces crime but has little effect on educational investment. Increased educational subsidies increase educational investment but reduce crime only slightly. Thus, one type of policy is insufficient to accomplish the goals of both reducing crime and increasing education. The third chapter is joint work with Prashant Bharadwaj, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Christopher Neilson. Boys tend to have better performances than girls in mathematical testing; in particular, there are significantly more boys than girls among high achievers and the score distribution appears to have a longer right tail for boys. We confirm such results on several low- and middle-income countries. In particular we find that the gender gap is already present by age 10 and substantially increases by age 14 and 15. We propose and try to test a series of explanations for such a gap: (i) parental investment, (ii) ability, (iii) school resources, (iv) individual investment and effort (not tested directly), (v) competitive environment, and (vi) cultural norms. We conclude that none of our proposed explanations can account for a substantial portion of the gap.
The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions
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Author : Martin Shubik
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1999
The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Dissertation Abstracts International
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Dissertation Abstracts International written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Dissertations, Academic categories.
Amartya Sen
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Author : Christopher W. Morris
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010
Amartya Sen written by Christopher W. Morris and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
A volume of essays on aspects of Amartya Sen's hugely influential and multi-disciplinary work.
Three Essays In Labor Economics
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Author : Cristóbal Huneeus
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Three Essays In Labor Economics written by Cristóbal Huneeus and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
Three Essays Examining The Health Economics Of Women And Their Children
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Author : Bradley Gray
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Three Essays Examining The Health Economics Of Women And Their Children written by Bradley Gray and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with categories.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-08-23
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Growth Theory Nonlinear Dynamics And Economic Modelling
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Author : William A. Brock
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2001-01-01
Growth Theory Nonlinear Dynamics And Economic Modelling written by William A. Brock and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.