Trade Diversion Effects From Global Tensions Higher Than We Think
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Trade Diversion Effects From Global Tensions Higher Than We Think
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Author : Mengqi Wang
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-10
Trade Diversion Effects From Global Tensions Higher Than We Think written by Mengqi Wang and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper builds a unique industry-level dataset by combining Mexico’s nationally sourced inputoutput data (INEGI) with cross-country sources (WIOD, UN Comtrade). Using this dataset to exploit higher supply linkages across a larger number of industries than what is available in cross-country sources, the paper estimates the trade diversion effect on Mexico’s exports to the U.S. from two episodes, with a focus on the first: the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018 and the U.S. sanctions on Russia in 2014. Difference-in-differences, local projections and few other empirical methodologies are used. For the first episode, the paper finds higher trade diversion effects than estimates in literature. Output tariff plays an important role, and there is some evidence of a positive impact through downstream tariffs. The effects are stronger when nationally sourced input-output data is used compared to those derived from cross-country sources. Importantly, the magnitude of trade diversion across industries does not depend on Mexico’s industry-level trade exposure to the U.S., but rather on the U.S. tariff changes on Chinese goods, the decrease in imports from China, product substitutability with Chinese products, and (weakly) on Mexico’s GVC integration. Similarly, for the second episode, the paper finds positive trade diversion effects. Overall, the findings suggest that trade diversion effect might be higher than previously thought and the proper accounting of dataset and supply linkages makes a difference.
World Economic Outlook April 2024
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-16
World Economic Outlook April 2024 written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-16 with Business & Economics categories.
The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Global Trends 2040
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Author : National Intelligence Council
language : en
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Release Date : 2021-03
Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and has been published by Cosimo Reports this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03 with categories.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Methodology For Impact Assessment Of Free Trade Agreements
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Author : Michael G. Plummer
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2011-02-01
Methodology For Impact Assessment Of Free Trade Agreements written by Michael G. Plummer and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Political Science categories.
This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
Globalization And Armed Conflict
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Author : Gerald Schneider
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2003
Globalization And Armed Conflict written by Gerald Schneider and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business & Economics categories.
Shows that expanding commercial ties between states pacifies some, but not necessarily all, political relationships.
Global Economic Prospects January 2019
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-12
Global Economic Prospects January 2019 written by World Bank Group and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The outlook for the global economy has darkened. Global financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, trade tensions have intensified, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced significant financial market stress. Faced with these headwinds, the recovery in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum. Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes. Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased. More frequent severe weather events would raise the possibility of large swings in international food prices, which could deepen poverty. In this difficult environment, it is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing economies to rebuild policy buffers while laying a stronger foundation for future growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing the challenges associated with informality,
War With China
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Author : David C. Gompert
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2016-07-05
War With China written by David C. Gompert and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-05 with History categories.
A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
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Author : Klaus Schwab
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2017-01-03
The Fourth Industrial Revolution written by Klaus Schwab and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum on how the impending technological revolution will change our lives We are on the brink of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And this one will be unlike any other in human history. Characterized by new technologies fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will impact all disciplines, economies and industries - and it will do so at an unprecedented rate. World Economic Forum data predicts that by 2025 we will see: commercial use of nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than human hair; the first transplant of a 3D-printed liver; 10% of all cars on US roads being driverless; and much more besides. In The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Schwab outlines the key technologies driving this revolution, discusses the major impacts on governments, businesses, civil society and individuals, and offers bold ideas for what can be done to shape a better future for all.
Nafta At 20
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Author : Michael J. Boskin
language : en
Publisher: Hoover Institution Press
Release Date : 2014-10-01
Nafta At 20 written by Michael J. Boskin and has been published by Hoover Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-01 with History categories.
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was bold and controversial from the start. When first conceived, it was far from obvious that it would be possible given the circumstances of the times. Drawing from a December 2013 Hoover Institution conference on "NAFTA at 20," this book brings together distinguished academics who have studied the effects of NAFTA with high-level policy makers to present a comprehensive view of the North American Free Trade Agreement. It looks at the conception, creation, outcomes so far, and the future of NAFTA from the perspective of economists, historians, and the aforementioned policy makers in the words of those who actually participated in the negotiations and research. In the context of the fundamental economic and political transformation of North America, they discuss the trade, real wage, and welfare gains that NAFTA has produced for the United States, Mexico, and Canada, along with a review of the major energy markets within and among the three countries. They include lessons from NAFTA for the future, both for NAFTA itself and for other trade agreements, and stress the importance of political leadership and providing information on the benefits of trade liberalization to voters and potentially ill-informed politicians who hear most loudly from the opponents.
The Liberal Illusion
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Author : Katherine Barbieri
language : en
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
Release Date : 2009-12-18
The Liberal Illusion written by Katherine Barbieri and has been published by University of Michigan Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-18 with Political Science categories.
"A very important and long-awaited major contribution to the debate . . . Her work cannot be ignored." --Nils Petter Gleditsch, Journal of Peace Research "Barbieri builds on a solid foundation of work on trade and conflict and specifies the conditions under which trade reduces and increases conflict. . . . The bottom line is that this is an important book in the study of trade and conflict because of its comprehensive approach." --Kathy L. Powers, Perspectives on Politics "Barbieri's analysis reveals the fundamental and intellectual weaknesses of the various arguments on this topic. [A] solid and timely contribution to the literature" --Choice The Liberal Illusion sheds light on an increasingly important question in international relations scholarship and the domain of policy making-whether international trade promotes peace. By examining a broad range of theories about trade's impact on interstate relations and undertaking a set of empirical analyses of the trade-conflict puzzle, Katherine Barbieri provides a comprehensive assessment of the liberal view that trade promotes peace. Barbieri's stunning conclusions depart from conventional wisdom in international relations. Consequently, The Liberal Illusion serves as an important counterargument and a warning call to policymakers who rely upon trade-based strategies to promote peace, strategies that appear to offer little hope of achieving their goals.