Trade Inflation And The Dollar
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Trade Inflation And The Dollar
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Author : Thibaut De Saint-Phalle
language : en
Publisher: Greenwood
Release Date : 1984
Trade Inflation And The Dollar written by Thibaut De Saint-Phalle and has been published by Greenwood this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1984 with Business & Economics categories.
Trade Inflation And The Dollar
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Author : Thibaut De Saint-Phalle
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
Trade Inflation And The Dollar written by Thibaut De Saint-Phalle and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Balance of payments categories.
Global Trade And The Dollar
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Author : Ms.Emine Boz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-13
Global Trade And The Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
The Way Of The Dollar
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Author : John Percival
language : en
Publisher: BookRix
Release Date : 2020-08-25
The Way Of The Dollar written by John Percival and has been published by BookRix this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
THE WAY OF THE DOLLAR TRADING CURRENCIES FOR PROFIT As readers know, my approach to analysing the currencies – its method – is essentially anti-crowd. We look where the crowd is not looking for an underlying rationale for the direction of the main trend. And we use a series of contrarian* sentiment indicators designed to orient us in the opposite direction to the crowd. This method has worked well, and it is timeless so it should always work. The method is OK. If we can have confidence in it and can apply it, we shall win. "My all-time favourite currency guy is John Percival (now retired and living comfortably in the French countryside I understand). My respect for his insights over the years is immense." "I have been a reader of John’s newsletter for over 20-years. I have learned a great deal from him, through his writings. There is a wealth of insights which I took from a very beaten up copy of his book, The Way of the Dollar, published back in 1991." "Mr. Percival doesn’t know this, but he was the only mentor I had in this market. I read his book from cover to cover to cover ... pages are falling out ... highlighted and notes everywhere. His book provides more insight every time you go back to it. And I go back to it often." "John Percival made a key point in the book that struck me – my belief in what matters when it comes to markets has little to do with trading success. I believed I was well armed given my freshly-minted MBA in finance and economics. I had already worked as a financial analyst and even did a stint in the never-never land of corporate strategic planning (talk about being paid to do absolutely nothing of value). Anyway, Mr. Percival’s book opened my eyes, but at the time I still didn’t understand just how valuable his advice was." "After years of trading and barking up all kinds of analytical trees, with major failure and moderate success in currencies, I went back to Mr. Percival’s book. This time I appreciated what was right there in the introduction:" Finally one had to see if there were other relationships which had any predictive value for currencies like inflation, trade, money supply, oil prices, economic growth, et al. So far, the conclusion is that few such relationships and none of the relationships that most observers seem to rely on are useful for predicting the dollar. "Say what? I thought to myself. Heck, I have all these so-called analytical skills and education and now I’m effectively being told by John Percival if you want to trade currencies and make money, you better pack up that degree and see the market for what it is, not what you think it is with your left brain dominance. John Percival argues in his introduction to The Way of the Dollar:" Because the systems constituent parts are mostly based on human behaviour which doesn’t change, not on fashion, we can be confident it will continue to work. The financial markets, as anyone familiar with them knows, are deeply paradoxical. They have a logic of their own which is why in a way the opposite of normal logic. Hence the market adage “sell on the news” applies to good news not bad news. Hence other bits of market lore like “a bull market climbs a wall of worry: a bear market flows down a river of hope.” Markets do whatever they need to do to confound the greatest number of people. This happens because prices reflect expectations. If everyone expects unemployment to rise, or a trade balance to fall, or inflation to remain steady, there is no intrinsic reason why they should be wrong: the expectation doesn’t affect the outcome. But if everyone expects shares to fall, or the dollar to rise, there is every reason why they should be wrong: because current share price levels already reflect the expectations of lower prices, and the current level of the dollar already discounts a rise. In other words, the expectation vitiates the outcome. "You can see why John Percival is an excellent mentor." "When I first got started focusing on currencies, I did my best to think only about what John Percival talked about in his book and push out all the smart rational analytical skills I was confident I had already learned. I didn’t realize the quality of this little book I stumbled upon; it was a true gem in the world of investment book wasteland where most reside, or should. I went on to do extremely well with my first real trading account." Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Copyright Notice and Disclaimer THE WAY OF THE DOLLAR Copyright © John W H Percival 1991
Global Trade And The Dollar
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Author : Gita Gopinath
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Global Trade And The Dollar written by Gita Gopinath and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Understanding The Dollar Crisis
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Author : Percy L. Greaves
language : en
Publisher: Ludwig von Mises Institute
Release Date : 1973
Understanding The Dollar Crisis written by Percy L. Greaves and has been published by Ludwig von Mises Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with Economics categories.
General Economics Monetary Policy
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Author : Manfred Damsch
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2011-02
General Economics Monetary Policy written by Manfred Damsch and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02 with categories.
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: keine, University of applied sciences, Munich, language: English, abstract: For now more than 6 years, starting in 2002, the US-Dollar continuously depreciates in relation to the Euro but also in relation to other strong currencies in the world. The European System of Central Bank can help the dollar but not without affecting the Euro. A stable Euro with low and constant inflation of 2% is the main objective of the ECB and fixed in their statutes. The depreciation of the dollar can be blended by depreciating the Euro in the same relation but that won't help for long. The impacts on the domestic economy which consists of a range of multicultural states within the Euro Area would be unpredictable. At least high Inflation to the Euro would follow - with negative side effects to the European countries. Even if a weaker Euro (or stronger Dollar) would help the German exporters the problem of the Dollar is not caused by the strong Euro. Germany is still leading in foreign trade and increases its net-export even though the Euro gets stronger. Since more than 20 years the USA have increased their trade-deficit year on year. The solution for the weak dollar is not a weak Euro. Beside the trade-deficit the enormous costs for military interventions also charge the government budget and lately the population by inflation tax.
Real Adjustment Processes Under Floating Exchange Rates
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Author : Franz Gehrels
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Real Adjustment Processes Under Floating Exchange Rates written by Franz Gehrels and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Helmut Schneider 1. The Formulation of the Research Programme 1. In the late sixties the acceleration of US inflation revived the discussion of the fifties about the superiority of flexible exchange rates: The US balance of payments deteriorated since 1965, the dollar shortage after World War II changed to a dollar surplus. The import of US inflation by their main trading partners intensified political pressures so that at the beginning of the seventies most leading countries decided, contrary to the rules of the Bretton Woods agreement, to stop their intervention in the market for foreign exchange and to let the exchange rates be determined by market forces. It is worthwhile recalling that at that time one had only very limited experience with the regime of flexible exchange rates: The most important case, the floating of Canadian against the US dollar, could not be generalized to a world where nearly all important countries adhered to the regime of flexible exchange rates. ! - But one really had rich experience with destabilizing capital flows (or "hot money") that forced monetary authorities to adjust exchange rates in a system of managed flexibility to the expecta tions of "speculators".
The Unloved Dollar Standard From Bretton Woods To The Rise Of China
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Author : Ronald I. McKinnon
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2012-11-28
The Unloved Dollar Standard From Bretton Woods To The Rise Of China written by Ronald I. McKinnon and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-28 with Business & Economics categories.
The world dollar standard is an accident of history that greatly facilitates international trade and exchange-even trade not directly involving the United States. Since 1945, the dollar has been the key currency for clearing international payments among banks including interventions by governments to set exchange rates, the dominant currency for invoicing trade in primary commodities, and the principal currency in official exchange reserves. Although the strong network effects of the dollar standard greatly increases the financial efficiency of multilateral trade, nobody loves it. Erratic U.S. monetary and exchange rate policies have continually made foreigners unhappy. A weak and falling dollar led to the worldwide price inflations of the 1970s and contributed to the disastrous asset bubbles and global credit crisis of the noughties -- including the global credit crunch of 2008-09. Dollar weakness aggravated the postwar world's three great oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 2007-08. After 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's policy of keeping short-term interest rates near zero and out of alignment with emerging markets on the dollar standard's periphery, makes the international monetary system vulnerable to 'carry' trades: hot money inflows into the periphery that cause a loss of monetary control, commodity bubbles, and worldwide inflation . When these carry-trade bubbles suddenly unwind, they can result in huge swings in exchange rates and credit crunches. The asymmetrical nature of the dollar standard also makes many Americans unhappy because they cannot control their own exchange rate. Under the rules of the dollar standard game as explained in chapters 2 and 3 of this book, foreign governments may opt to set their exchange rates against the dollar while, to prevent conflict, the U.S. government typically does not intervene. Nevertheless, Americans often complain about how foreigners set their dollar exchange rates unfairly. Japan bashing in the late 1970s to the mid-1990s over the alleged under valuation of the yen, and China bashing in the new millennium over the alleged undervaluation of the renminbi, are two cases in point. Thus, while nobody loves the dollar standard, the revealed preference of both governments and private participants in the foreign exchange markets since 1945 is to continue to use it. As the principal monetary mechanism ensuring that international trade remains robustly multilateral rather than narrowly bilateral, it is a remarkable survivor that is too valuable to lose and too difficult to replace. This book provides historical and analytical perspectives on the different phases of the postwar dollar standard in order to better understand its resilience in spite of the great volatility in today's global monetary system.
The Dollar Abroad Inflation At Home
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Author : John Charles Daly
language : en
Publisher: Institute
Release Date : 1978
The Dollar Abroad Inflation At Home written by John Charles Daly and has been published by Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Business & Economics categories.