Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom
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Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-02-15
Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
Commodity Terms Of Trade
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-09-01
Commodity Terms Of Trade written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Commodity Price Cycles
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Author : Gustavo Adler
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-12-01
Commodity Price Cycles written by Gustavo Adler and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."
Commodity Terms Of Trade
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-24
Commodity Terms Of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-23
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.
World Economic Outlook October 2015
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-06
World Economic Outlook October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
World Economic Outlook April 2012
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-04-17
World Economic Outlook April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Currencies Commodities And Consumption
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Author : Kenneth W. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-31
Currencies Commodities And Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
Indonesia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-15
Indonesia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses key issues related to the Indonesian economy. Indonesia has weathered challenging economic conditions well. The economy has safely navigated the commodity price shocks, tightening financial conditions, and repeated bouts of turbulence in global financial markets, assisted by broadly appropriate macroeconomic policies. The Indonesian economy, however, is still facing headwinds. Against this backdrop, the 2015 Article IV consultation is focused on the need to manage short-term vulnerabilities and to boost potential growth in the medium-term. The challenge for Indonesia will be to follow through on the reforms that the government has already launched and undertake further macrocritical reforms to boost productivity and diversify growth, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability.
Commodity Cycles Inequality And Poverty In Latin America
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Author : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-26
Commodity Cycles Inequality And Poverty In Latin America written by Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.