Uncertain Outcomes
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Uncertain Outcomes
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Author : Clifford Richard Bell
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1979
Uncertain Outcomes written by Clifford Richard Bell and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
Extraordinary Outcomes
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Author : Iris R. Firstenberg
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2014-08-15
Extraordinary Outcomes written by Iris R. Firstenberg and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Steel your team against the unexpected by planning for uncertainty Extraordinary Outcomes presents an innovative approach to thinking and planning, giving leaders a playbook for dealing with uncertainty. Written by internationally recognized authorities on problem solving and creativity in organizations, this book provides an alternative outlook on business strategy and people management for leaders navigating uncertain waters, where the future is anything but guaranteed. The framework is the result of research in multiple fields and the authors' experiences with individuals, teams, and organizations, with examples from real-world situations that illustrate the concepts and dynamics at work to give readers deeper insight. The focus is on conquering uncertainty – eliminating it where possible, reducing it where it can be reduced, and embracing it when it's inevitable. Traditional ways of thinking and planning do not work in the face of an uncertain future. Frequently there are just no guarantees, nothing written in stone, and even a fortune-teller couldn't accurately predict the outcome. Extraordinary Outcomes helps leaders prepare for that, with strategies geared toward preparedness and embracing uncertainty. Learn why skills and talent are only two pieces of a bigger puzzle Discover how to better galvanize the team, and keep them motivated long-term Connect to a purpose that inspires enthusiastic engagement Conquer uncertainty, and develop a strategy for dealing with mistakes No one likes to be caught off guard, and the consequences can be severe at the organizational level. Leaders can't be psychic, but they can plan for possible outcomes and always have a solution at the ready. For those who like to have an answer for everything, Extraordinary Outcomes provides a roadmap toward an uncertainty-proof strategy for doing business.
Uncertainty
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Author : Jean Walrand
language : en
Publisher: Independently Published
Release Date : 2019-04-11
Uncertainty written by Jean Walrand and has been published by Independently Published this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-11 with categories.
Uncertainty is prevalent in our life. It is both exciting and scary. How do you think about risks? How do you make decisions with uncertain outcomes? How do you evaluate the credibility of studies? This book explores how to think rationally about uncertainty. The ideas are presented with simple accessible examples.
Cognitive Strategies For Coping With Uncertain Outcomes
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Author : Thomas A. Pyszczynski
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1980
Cognitive Strategies For Coping With Uncertain Outcomes written by Thomas A. Pyszczynski and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Affect (Psychology) categories.
Probabilistic Choice Models For Uncertain Outcomes
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Author : John K. Dagsvik
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Probabilistic Choice Models For Uncertain Outcomes written by John K. Dagsvik and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with categories.
Essays On The Uncertainty Of Continuous Outcomes
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Author : David Zimmerman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Essays On The Uncertainty Of Continuous Outcomes written by David Zimmerman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
People are continually faced with decisions that have uncertain outcomes. Often there are many different uncertainties within each of the options available. This research focuses on uncertainty that is continuous, such as the amount of time it will take for a person to commute home or their monthly grocery expenses. When making choices with uncertain outcomes people must (1) construct judgments about the nature of the uncertainty and then (2) form a preference about these uncertainties. Chapter 1 looks at the impacts of different elicitations metrics on uncertainty judgments. Specifically, how do different, but equivalent metrics, impact the amount and shape of the uncertainty estimated. This research relies on three empirical regularities from the cognitive psychology literature: uncertainty perceptions scale with magnitude, a tendency to neglect units, and a strong prior that uncertainty distributions are symmetric. Capitalizing on these empirical regularities, we find striking inconsistencies in judgments of uncertainty, both the amount and the symmetry, depending on the elicitation metric used. In Chapter 2, we find a robust preference for positively correlated uncertainty over negatively correlated uncertainty in the domain of gains. Based on the stimuli used, only someone with risk-seeking preferences would be expected to choose the option with positively correlated uncertainty. Two common decision heuristics, two different display formats, and three different outcomes all result in the same general preference for positively correlated uncertainty. A third display format, similar to a histogram, was the only manipulation that appeared to align single attribute risk preferences and multi-attribute choice. Both chapters offer new phenomena to be accounted for in future models of uncertainty.
Choosing Among Alternatives With Uncertain Outcomes
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Author : Rice University. Psychology Department
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
Choosing Among Alternatives With Uncertain Outcomes written by Rice University. Psychology Department and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with categories.
Choosing Among Alternatives With Uncertain Outcomes Effect Of Prior Cuing And Estimation Requirements
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Author : Shanta P. Kerkar
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
Choosing Among Alternatives With Uncertain Outcomes Effect Of Prior Cuing And Estimation Requirements written by Shanta P. Kerkar and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with categories.
Previous investigations by the authors have shown that judgments of frequency or probability have a facilitatory influence on subsequent predictive choice performance. The present study examined both these judgement processes more closely in an attempt to understand how they affect choices. Five groups of subjects served as emergency vehicle dispatchers for a hypothetical city. The experimental design involved a 2 x 2 factorial combination of response set and estimation task. More specifically, response set, defined as expectation of a frequency or probability response requirement, was crossed with actual response requirement, either frequency or probability estimation, in a between-groups design. (Author).
Understanding Uncertainty
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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-08-28
Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-08-28 with Mathematics categories.
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Discrete Proportional Hazards Models For Uncertain Outcomes
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Author : Amalia Sophia Meier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
Discrete Proportional Hazards Models For Uncertain Outcomes written by Amalia Sophia Meier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.