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Understanding Uncertainty

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Understanding Uncertainty

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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-11-26

Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-26 with Mathematics categories.

Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Understanding Uncertainty

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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-08-28

A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Statistics

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Author : Frank P. Soler
language : en
Publisher: Kendall Hunt Publishing Company
Release Date : 2002

Statistics written by Frank P. Soler and has been published by Kendall Hunt Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business & Economics categories.

Uncertainty Deconstructed

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Author : Bruce Garvey
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-08-26

Uncertainty Deconstructed written by Bruce Garvey and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.

This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant

Uncertainty And Surprise In Complex Systems

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Author : Reuben R. McDaniel
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2005-03-11

Uncertainty And Surprise In Complex Systems written by Reuben R. McDaniel and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-03-11 with Science categories.

Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Representing Scientific Knowledge

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Author : Chaomei Chen
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-25

Representing Scientific Knowledge written by Chaomei Chen and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-25 with Computers categories.

This book is written for anyone who is interested in how a field of research evolves and the fundamental role of understanding uncertainties involved in different levels of analysis, ranging from macroscopic views to meso- and microscopic ones. We introduce a series of computational and visual analytic techniques, from research areas such as text mining, deep learning, information visualization and science mapping, such that readers can apply these tools to the study of a subject matter of their choice. In addition, we set the diverse set of methods in an integrative context, that draws upon insights from philosophical, sociological, and evolutionary theories of what drives the advances of science, such that the readers of the book can guide their own research with their enriched theoretical foundations. Scientific knowledge is complex. A subject matter is typically built on its own set of concepts, theories, methodologies and findings, discovered by generations of researchers and practitioners. Scientific knowledge, as known to the scientific community as a whole, experiences constant changes. Some changes are long-lasting, whereas others may be short lived. How can we keep abreast of the state of the art as science advances? How can we effectively and precisely convey the status of the current science to the general public as well as scientists across different disciplines? The study of scientific knowledge in general has been overwhelmingly focused on scientific knowledge per se. In contrast, the status of scientific knowledge at various levels of granularity has been largely overlooked. This book aims to highlight the role of uncertainties, in developing a better understanding of the status of scientific knowledge at a particular time, and how its status evolves over the course of the development of research. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the knowledge of the types of uncertainties associated with scientific claims serves as an integral and critical part of our domain expertise.

Uncertainty Advantage

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Author : Gary S. Lynch
language : en
Publisher: Archway Publishing
Release Date : 2017-01-12

Uncertainty Advantage written by Gary S. Lynch and has been published by Archway Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-12 with Business & Economics categories.

Risk and uncertainty may sound scary, but todays best business leaders are navigating both to gain strategic advantage over competitorsand you can, too. This guide for business leaders examines risk and opportunity through the lens of some of the worlds most respected visionaries, including Howard Schultz, Andy Grove, Peter Huntsman, John Krafcik, Peter Leibinger, Doug Hepper, and many more. These visionaries looked beyond financial performance to see opportunitiesand they did so by understanding uncertainty. Then, they decisively acted to create measurable results that coincided with the future they envisioned. Find out how they did it, and learn how to: identify, define, and convert uncertainty into value; become more opportunistic when facing uncertainty; develop the skill to spot where advantages are likely to emerge; and create an environment where managers and leaders complement each other. Filled with case studies on companies such as Hyundai, Starbucks, Roche, and Intel, this guide delivers proven ways to create value and leverage uncertainty. It is the culmination of a decade of research and interaction with dozens of companies and growth leaders who prove that pursuing a market driven strategy to navigating uncertainty will gain measurable market advantage.

Uncertainty In Remote Sensing And Gis

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Author : Giles M. Foody
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2003-07-11

Uncertainty In Remote Sensing And Gis written by Giles M. Foody and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Remote sensing and geographical information science (GIS) have advanced considerably in recent years. However, the potential of remote sensing and GIS within the environmental sciences is limited by uncertainty, especially in connection with the data sets and methods used. In many studies, the issue of uncertainty has been incompletely addressed. The situation has arisen in part from a lack of appreciation of uncertainty and the problems it can cause as well as of the techniques that may be used to accommodate it. This book provides general overviews on uncertainty in remote sensing and GIS that illustrate the range of uncertainties that may occur, in addition to describing the means of measuring uncertainty and the impacts of uncertainty on analyses and interpretations made. Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS provides readers with comprehensive coverage of this largely undocumented subject: * Relevant to a broad variety of disciplines including geography, environmental science, electrical engineering and statistics * Covers range of material from base overviews to specific applications * Focuses on issues connected with uncertainty at various points along typical data analysis chains used in remote sensing and GIS Written by an international team of researchers drawn from a variety of disciplines, Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS provides focussed discussions on topics of considerable importance to a broad research and user community. The book is invaluable reading for researchers, advanced students and practitioners who want to understand the nature of uncertainty in remote sensing and GIS, its limitations and methods of accommodating it.

Uncertainty And Risk

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Author : Gabriele Bammer
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2012-05-04

Uncertainty And Risk written by Gabriele Bammer and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.

This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.

Doubt Free Uncertainty In Measurement

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Author : Colin Ratcliffe
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-11-17

Doubt Free Uncertainty In Measurement written by Colin Ratcliffe and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This volume presents measurement uncertainty and uncertainty budgets in a form accessible to practicing engineers and engineering students from across a wide range of disciplines. The book gives a detailed explanation of the methods presented by NIST in the “GUM” – Guide to Uncertainty of Measurement. Emphasis is placed on explaining the background and meaning of the topics, while keeping the level of mathematics at the minimum level necessary. Dr. Colin Ratcliffe, USNA, and Bridget Ratcliffe, Johns Hopkins, develop uncertainty budgets and explain their use. In some examples, the budget may show a process is already adequate and where costs can be saved. In other examples, the budget may show the process is inadequate and needs improvement. The book demonstrates how uncertainty budgets help identify the most cost effective place to make changes. In addition, an extensive fully-worked case study leads readers through all issues related to an uncertainty analysis, including a variety of different types of uncertainty budgets. The book is ideal for professional engineers and students concerned with a broad range of measurement assurance challenges in applied sciences. This book also: Facilitates practicing engineers’ understanding of uncertainty budgets, essential to calculating cost-effective savings to a wide variety of processes contingent on measurement Presents uncertainty budgets in an accessible style suitable for all undergraduate STEM courses that include a laboratory component Provides a highly adaptable supplement to graduate textbooks for courses where students’ work includes reporting on experimental results Includes an expanded case study developing uncertainty from transducers though measurands and propagated to the final measurement that can be used as a template for the analysis of many processes Stands as a useful pocket reference for all engineers and experimental scientists

Understanding Uncertainty

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