Uncertainties In Environmental Modelling And Consequences For Policy Making
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Uncertainties In Environmental Modelling And Consequences For Policy Making
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Author : Philippe Baveye
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-05-14
Uncertainties In Environmental Modelling And Consequences For Policy Making written by Philippe Baveye and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-05-14 with Science categories.
Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.
Environmental Modelling
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Author : Keith Beven
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-02-25
Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-25 with Science categories.
Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Advances In Hydroinformatics
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Author : Philippe Gourbesville
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-02-26
Advances In Hydroinformatics written by Philippe Gourbesville and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-26 with Science categories.
This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
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Author : Karin Riley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-12-12
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-12 with Science categories.
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Climate Change 2001 Mitigation
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Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III.
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2001-07-12
Climate Change 2001 Mitigation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III. and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
IPCC assessment of the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change.
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk
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Author : Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk written by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Science categories.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Risk And Crisis Communication During The Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Martin N. Ndlela
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2023-10-13
Risk And Crisis Communication During The Covid 19 Pandemic written by Martin N. Ndlela and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-13 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
This book examines the challenges of communicating messages during the COVID-19 pandemic and provides recommendations for managing future global health crises. Given that outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics are global crises that require global solutions, the book suggests that the world community needs to build resilient crisis management institutions and message management systems. Through international case studies, in-depth interviews, and textual, content, narrative, and document analysis, the book provides comprehensive accounts of how normative risk communication strategies were invoked, applied, disrupted, questioned, and changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores themes including crisis preparedness, outbreak communication, lockdown messages, communication uncertainty, risk message strategies, and the challenges of information disorders. It argues that trust in supranational and national institutions is crucial for the effective management of future global public health crises. A thorough assessment of the multiple challenges faced by public health authorities and audiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, this book will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and students in the field of Risk, Crisis and Health Communication and Public Health and Disaster Management.
Risk And Uncertainty In Dam Safety
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Author : Desmond N. D. Hartford
language : en
Publisher: Thomas Telford
Release Date : 2004
Risk And Uncertainty In Dam Safety written by Desmond N. D. Hartford and has been published by Thomas Telford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Social Science categories.
Intends to assist the dam owner in evaluating the needs for dam safety improvement, selecting and prioritizing remedial and corrective actions, and improving the operation, maintenance and surveillance procedures. This book is intended not only for industry specialists but also for readers outside the dam engineering community.
Environmental Modelling Software And Decision Support
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Author : Anthony J. Jakeman
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2008-09-11
Environmental Modelling Software And Decision Support written by Anthony J. Jakeman and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-11 with Science categories.
The complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental problems requires that they are dealt with in an integrated manner. Modeling and software have become key instruments used to promote sustainability and improve environmental decision processes, especially through systematic integration of various knowledge and data and their ability to foster learning and help make predictions. This book presents the current state-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software and identifies the future challenges in the field. - State-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software theory and practice for integrated assessment and management serves as a starting point for researchers - Identifies the areas of research and practice required for advancing the requisite knowledge base and tools, and their wider usage - Best practices of environmental modeling enables the reader to select appropriate software and gives the reader tools to integrate natural system dynamics with human dimensions