Uncertainty And Expectation

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Uncertainty And Expectation

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Author : Gerald Ashley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2005-08-05

Uncertainty And Expectation written by Gerald Ashley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-08-05 with Business & Economics categories.

In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.

Uncertainty Expectations And Asset Price Dynamics

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Author : Fredj Jawadi
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-11-30

Uncertainty Expectations And Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-30 with Business & Economics categories.

Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Uncertainty Expectations And Financial Instability

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Author : Eric Barthalon
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2014-11-11

Uncertainty Expectations And Financial Instability written by Eric Barthalon and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.

Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel PrizeÐwinning economist Maurice Allais (1911Ð2010) to model investorsÕ psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, AllaisÕs theory proves economic agents perceive the flow of clocksÕ time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts AllaisÕs work as a general theory of ÒexpectationsÓ under uncertainty, closing the gap between economic theory and investorsÕ behavior. Barthalon extends AllaisÕs theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in KindlebergerÕs model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Nonlinear Expectations And Stochastic Calculus Under Uncertainty

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Author : Shige Peng
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-09-09

Nonlinear Expectations And Stochastic Calculus Under Uncertainty written by Shige Peng and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-09 with Mathematics categories.

This book is focused on the recent developments on problems of probability model uncertainty by using the notion of nonlinear expectations and, in particular, sublinear expectations. It provides a gentle coverage of the theory of nonlinear expectations and related stochastic analysis. Many notions and results, for example, G-normal distribution, G-Brownian motion, G-Martingale representation theorem, and related stochastic calculus are first introduced or obtained by the author. This book is based on Shige Peng’s lecture notes for a series of lectures given at summer schools and universities worldwide. It starts with basic definitions of nonlinear expectations and their relation to coherent measures of risk, law of large numbers and central limit theorems under nonlinear expectations, and develops into stochastic integral and stochastic calculus under G-expectations. It ends with recent research topic on G-Martingale representation theorem and G-stochastic integral for locally integrable processes. With exercises to practice at the end of each chapter, this book can be used as a graduate textbook for students in probability theory and mathematical finance. Each chapter also concludes with a section Notes and Comments, which gives history and further references on the material covered in that chapter. Researchers and graduate students interested in probability theory and mathematical finance will find this book very useful.

Uncertainty

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Author : Millett Granger Morgan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990

Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.

A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.

The Behavioral Economics Of Inflation Expectations

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Author : Tobias F. Rötheli
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2020-08-13

The Behavioral Economics Of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-13 with Business & Economics categories.

A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.

Post Keynesian Economics

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Author : T. Palley
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 1996-06-19

Post Keynesian Economics written by T. Palley and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-06-19 with Business & Economics categories.

Fluctuations in the level of debt service burdens give rise to fluctuations in aggregate demand which can then cause business cycles.

Probability Via Expectation

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Author : Peter Whittle
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-01

Probability Via Expectation written by Peter Whittle and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-01 with Mathematics categories.

This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text rather than the author should persuade, and left the text to speak for itself. It has, indeed, stimulated a steady interest, to the point that Springer-Verlag has now commissioned this complete reworking.

The Inflation Mechanism And Expectations

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Author : Laya Li
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-10-19

The Inflation Mechanism And Expectations written by Laya Li and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-19 with Political Science categories.

This book reflects China's experience, model and theory of successful inflation control. The idea of Stabilization of Expectations emphasized by the Chinese government was primarily proposed in this book with systematic theoretical support. The theory framework initiated in this book has been about 10 years earlier than that of the European and American economists. The core theory of this work is Sticky Expectation Theory, which breaks through the framework of neoclassical economic theory, denies the fundamental preconditions of neoclassical economic theory to establish a new theoretical framework so as to understand people's economic behavior and explain the operating mechanism of economy. This book establishes the Chinese version of flexible inflation targeting system, policy transparency, policy rules, and expectation management as the means to prevent and manage inflation and macro-control. Readers will gain a better understanding of the research achievements of Chinese scholars in the field of inflation management as well as the theory of expectations. Readers can further understand the Chinese approach in tackling inflation issue and other macro-economic control measures proposed by this book.

Uncertainty In Economics And Other Reflections

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Author : G. L. S. Shackle
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-08-26

Uncertainty In Economics And Other Reflections written by G. L. S. Shackle and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.

This book is a collection of some of Professor Shackle's papers written between 1939 and 1953 is largely concerned with the problems of 'expectation' and 'uncertainty' and with reducing these universal factors to some sort of plausible rules. Also included are essays on interest rates, on investment and employment, and on the philosophy of economics. This book, by one of the finest economic writers of his time, will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics.