Uncertainty And Public Investment Multipliers The Role Of Economic Confidence
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Uncertainty And Public Investment Multipliers The Role Of Economic Confidence
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Author : William Gbohoui
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
Uncertainty And Public Investment Multipliers The Role Of Economic Confidence written by William Gbohoui and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment
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Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-05-04
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Is The Public Investment Multiplier Higher In Developing Countries An Empirical Exploration
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Author : Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20
Is The Public Investment Multiplier Higher In Developing Countries An Empirical Exploration written by Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity
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Author : Richard Hemming
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2002-12
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Oecd Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 1
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2019-05-21
Oecd Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 1 written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-21 with categories.
This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the effects of digitalisation on productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Fiscal Multipliers
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Author : Nicoletta Batini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-02
Fiscal Multipliers written by Nicoletta Batini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Building Back Better How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-19
Building Back Better How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
G20 Note On Environmentally Sustainable Investment For The Recovery
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-29
G20 Note On Environmentally Sustainable Investment For The Recovery written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Note prepared for the G20 Infrastructure Working Group summarizes the main finding of the IMF flagships regarding the role of environmentally sustainable investment for the recovery. It emphasizes that environmentally sustainable investment is an important enabler for a resilient greener, and inclusive recovery—it creates jobs, spurs economic growth, addresses climate change, and improves the quality of life. It can also stimulate much needed private sector greener and resilient investment.
Making Public Investment More Efficient
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2015-01-05
Making Public Investment More Efficient written by and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Public investment supports the delivery of key public services, connects citizens and firms to economic opportunities, and can serve as an important catalyst for economic growth. After three decades of decline, public investment has begun to recover as a share of GDP in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), but remains at historic lows in advanced economies (AEs). The increase in public investment in EMs and LIDCs has led to some convergence between richer and poorer countries in the quality of and access to social infrastructure (e.g., schools and hospitals), and, to a lesser extent, economic infrastructure (e.g., roads and electricity). However, the economic and social impact of public investment critically depends on its efficiency. Comparing the value of public capital (input) and measures of infrastructure coverage and quality (output) across countries reveals average inefficiencies in public investment processes of around 30 percent. The economic dividends from closing this efficiency gap are substantial: the most efficient public investors get twice the growth “bang” for their public investment “buck” than the least efficient.