Uncertainty Financial Frictions And Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation
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Uncertainty Financial Frictions And Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation
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Author : Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-29
Uncertainty Financial Frictions And Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.
Uncertainty Financial Frictions And Investment Dynamics
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Author : Simon Gilchrist
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Uncertainty Financial Frictions And Investment Dynamics written by Simon Gilchrist and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Economics categories.
Micro- and macro-level evidence indicates that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty have a large effect on investment; the impact of uncertainty on investment occurs primarily through changes in credit spreads; and innovations in credit spreads have a strong effect on investment, irrespective of the level of uncertainty. These findings raise a question regarding the economic significance of the traditional "wait-and-see" effect of uncertainty shocks and point to financial distortions as the main mechanism through which fluctuations in uncertainty affect macroeconomic outcomes. The relative importance of these two mechanisms is analyzed within a quantitative general equilibrium model, featuring heterogeneous firms that face time-varying idiosyncratic uncertainty, irreversibility, nonconvex capital adjustment costs, and financial frictions. The model successfully replicates the stylized facts concerning the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty and financial shocks. By influencing the effective supply of credit, both types of shocks exert a powerful effect on investment and generate countercyclical credit spreads and procyclical leverage, dynamics consistent with the data and counter to those implied by the technology-driven real business cycle models.
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-09
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg
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Author : Carlos de Resende
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-09
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg written by Carlos de Resende and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-09 with categories.
The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.
State Space Models With Regime Switching
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Author : Chang-Jin Kim
language : en
Publisher: Mit Press
Release Date : 1999
State Space Models With Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and has been published by Mit Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Frontiers Of Business Cycle Research
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Author : Thomas F. Cooley
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 1995-02-26
Frontiers Of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-02-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
The Global Integrated Monetary And Fiscal Model Gimf
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Author : Mr. Douglas Laxton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-02-01
The Global Integrated Monetary And Fiscal Model Gimf written by Mr. Douglas Laxton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.
Toward An Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-10-08
Toward An Integrated Policy Framework written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Laurent Ferrara
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-06-13
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.