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Uncertainty In A Disaggregate Model


Uncertainty In A Disaggregate Model
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Uncertainty In A Disaggregate Model


Uncertainty In A Disaggregate Model
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Author : Kalvinder K. Shields
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019

Uncertainty In A Disaggregate Model written by Kalvinder K. Shields and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.




Uncertainty Within Economic Models


Uncertainty Within Economic Models
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Author : Lars Peter Hansen
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2014-09-09

Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.


Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.



Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Civil Engineering


Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Civil Engineering
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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1997-12-29

Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Civil Engineering written by Bilal M. Ayyub and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-29 with Technology & Engineering categories.


With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.



Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty


Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : J. Geweke
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.


As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).



Stochastic Hydrology And Its Use In Water Resources Systems Simulation And Optimization


Stochastic Hydrology And Its Use In Water Resources Systems Simulation And Optimization
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Author : J.B. Marco
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Stochastic Hydrology And Its Use In Water Resources Systems Simulation And Optimization written by J.B. Marco and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.


Stochastic hydrology is an essential base of water resources systems analysis, due to the inherent randomness of the input, and consequently of the results. These results have to be incorporated in a decision-making process regarding the planning and management of water systems. It is through this application that stochastic hydrology finds its true meaning, otherwise it becomes merely an academic exercise. A set of well known specialists from both stochastic hydrology and water resources systems present a synthesis of the actual knowledge currently used in real-world planning and management. The book is intended for both practitioners and researchers who are willing to apply advanced approaches for incorporating hydrological randomness and uncertainty into the simulation and optimization of water resources systems. (abstract) Stochastic hydrology is a basic tool for water resources systems analysis, due to inherent randomness of the hydrologic cycle. This book contains actual techniques in use for water resources planning and management, incorporating randomness into the decision making process. Optimization and simulation, the classical systems-analysis technologies, are revisited under up-to-date statistical hydrology findings backed by real world applications.



A Model Free Definition Of Increasing Uncertainty


A Model Free Definition Of Increasing Uncertainty
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Author : Simon Grant
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001

A Model Free Definition Of Increasing Uncertainty written by Simon Grant and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.




A Disaggregated Analysis Of Consumer Choice Under Uncertainty


A Disaggregated Analysis Of Consumer Choice Under Uncertainty
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Author : L. Epstein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1974

A Disaggregated Analysis Of Consumer Choice Under Uncertainty written by L. Epstein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1974 with Consumers categories.




Transport Decisions In An Age Of Uncertainty


Transport Decisions In An Age Of Uncertainty
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Author : E.J. Visser
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Transport Decisions In An Age Of Uncertainty written by E.J. Visser and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.


Proceedings of the 3rd World Conference on Transport Research, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, April 1977



Solving The Incomplete Markets Model With Aggregate Uncertainty Using Explicit Aggregation


Solving The Incomplete Markets Model With Aggregate Uncertainty Using Explicit Aggregation
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Author : Wouter J. Den Haan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

Solving The Incomplete Markets Model With Aggregate Uncertainty Using Explicit Aggregation written by Wouter J. Den Haan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Econometric models categories.




Uncertainty And Unemployment


Uncertainty And Unemployment
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Author : Sangyup Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-02-23

Uncertainty And Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-02-23 with Business & Economics categories.


We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.