Uncertainty In Risk Assessment
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Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making
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Author : V.T. Covello
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-08
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-08 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Science And Judgment In Risk Assessment
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1994-01-01
Science And Judgment In Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-01-01 with Science categories.
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-12-17
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-17 with Mathematics categories.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Uncertainty Characterization In Risk Analysis For Decision Making Practice
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher: FonCSI
Release Date : 2012-05-01
Uncertainty Characterization In Risk Analysis For Decision Making Practice written by Enrico Zio and has been published by FonCSI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making
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Author : V.T. Covello
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1987-05-31
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987-05-31 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Risk And Uncertainty Assessment For Natural Hazards
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Author : Jonathan Rougier
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-02-21
Risk And Uncertainty Assessment For Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-21 with Science categories.
Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
Science And Decisions
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2009-03-24
Science And Decisions written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-24 with Political Science categories.
Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Risk Assessment Framework
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Author : Ray W. Frohnhoefer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019-10-26
Risk Assessment Framework written by Ray W. Frohnhoefer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.
All initiatives start with uncertainty, creating consequences ranging from unfulfilled plans to total organizational failure. Yet ongoing research has shown risk management to be a frequently neglected area of planning. A framework is a simple, basic conceptual structure of a process, modifiable to fit the needs and circumstances of initiatives, whether they be projects, programs, operations, or even a collection of activities. Strong frameworks (known as shikumi in Japanese), allow an organization to change and weather changes quickly. A good framework is usable by a small initiative, but is also usable across the organization and organizations.Risk Assessment Framework provides a complete framework and a recommended means of implementation to establish a complete, reusable, and sustainable risk management methodology for any initiative. Tools, templates, forms, and guidance provide support for the implementation of the framework. It is up to the initiative manager to review the framework, tailor the framework to be appropriate for the initiative as needed, and select tools and techniques to support the tailored framework.This newly revised edition of Risk Assessment Framework includes: - an updated, scalable framework to proactively manage risk for any initiative- a guide to tailoring and scaling the framework to put it to immediate use- stress on positive risks as encouragement to use it (hint: it can pay for itself )- a focus on a risk assessment workshop (the recommended framework implementation method)- access to tools, techniques, templates, and guidance to continuously improve risk management- alignment with the PMBOK(R) Guide - Sixth Edition and ISO 31000Whether you are an aspiring, new, accidental, or experienced manager, this book will help you successfully navigate uncertainty for any effort.
Knowledge In Risk Assessment And Management
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-02-20
Knowledge In Risk Assessment And Management written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.
Foundations Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2004-01-09
Foundations Of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-01-09 with Mathematics categories.
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.