Uncertainty Premia Sovereign Default Risk And State Contingent Debt
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Uncertainty Premia Sovereign Default Risk And State Contingent Debt
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Author : Mr. Francisco Roch
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-12
Uncertainty Premia Sovereign Default Risk And State Contingent Debt written by Mr. Francisco Roch and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model à la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond structure (e.g., the GDP-linked bond issued by Argentina in 2005), the model with robustness generates ambiguity premia in bond spreads that can explain most of what the literature has labeled as novelty premium. While the government would be better off with this bond when facing rational expectations lenders, this additional source of premia leads to welfare losses when facing robust lenders. Finally, we characterize the optimal design of the state-contingent bond and show how it varies with the level of robustness. Our findings rationalize the little use of these instruments in practice and shed light on their optimal design.
The Premia On State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
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Author : Deniz Igan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-03
The Premia On State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments written by Deniz Igan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-03 with Business & Economics categories.
State-contingent debt instruments such as GDP-linked warrants have garnered attention as a potential tool to help debt-stressed economies smooth repayments over business cycles, yet very few studies of the empirical properties of these instruments exist. This paper develops a general f ramework to estimate the time-varying risk premium of a state-contingent sovereign debt instrument. Our estimation framework applied to GDP-linked warrants issued by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine reveals three stylized facts: (i) the risk premium in state-contingent instruments is high and persistent; (ii) the risk premium exhibits a pro-cyclical pattern; and (iii) the liquidity premium is higher and more volatile than that for plain-vanilla government bonds issued by the same sovereign. We then present a model in which investors fear ambiguity and that can account for the cyclical properties of the risk premium.
Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
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Author : Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-10
Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments written by Mr. Alejandro D Guerson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper shows that the optimal sovereign lending contract is state-contingent when a government can default. It provides a theoretical basis for the specification of optimal state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) in countries subject to large shocks that can be observed and verified by all parties involved, such as natural disasters or global pandemics. The result is obtained as the endogenous solution to a contracting problem under time-inconsistency when a government cannot credibly commit to honor debt service obligations in all possible states of nature. It is shown that rational investors optimally offer SCDIs that include additional financing when the default constraint is binding, keeping the debtor engaged in the contractual relationship and avoiding asset loss. The debtor benefits because the contract implies net-positive financing when facing a large shock, increasing concurrent welfare, while maintaining access to financing in the future for consumption smoothing at the same terms as with precommitment. SCDIs require maintaining debt at a low level compared to the precommitment case, and also a fiscal consolidation when triggered to contain the increase in debt. Extension of the time inconsistency problem to add the taxation of capital returns shows that the optimal physical capital investment is also state-contingent.
Sovereign Debt
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Author : Rob Quail
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-02-25
Sovereign Debt written by Rob Quail and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Sovereign Debt
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Author : Mr. Leonardo Martinez
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-17
Sovereign Debt written by Mr. Leonardo Martinez and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper surveys the literature on sovereign debt from the perspective of understanding how sovereign debt differs from privately issue debt, and why sovereign debt is deemed safe in some countries but risky in others. The answers relate to the unique power of the sovereign. One the one hand, a sovereign has the power to tax, making debt relatively safe; on the other, it also has control over its territory and most of its assets, making debt enforcement difficult. The paper discusses debt contracts and the sovereign debt market, sovereign debt restructurings, and the empirical and theoretical literatures on the costs and causes of defaults. It describes the adverse impact of sovereign default risk on the issuing countries and what explains this impact. The survey concludes with a discussion of policy options to reduce sovereign risk, including fiscal frameworks that act as commitment devices, state-contingent debt, and independent and credible monetary policy.
State Contingent Debt Instruments For Sovereigns
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-22
State Contingent Debt Instruments For Sovereigns written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Background. The case for sovereign state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) as a countercyclical and risk-sharing tool has been around for some time and remains appealing; but take-up has been limited. Earlier staff work had advocated the use of growth-indexed bonds in emerging markets and contingent financial instruments in low-income countries. In light of recent renewed interest among academics, policymakers, and market participants—staff has analyzed the conceptual and practical issues SCDIs raise with a view to accelerate the development of self-sustaining markets in these instruments. The analysis has benefited from broad consultations with both private market participants and policymakers. The economic case for SCDIs. By linking debt service to a measure of the sovereign’s capacity to pay, SCDIs can increase fiscal space, and thus allow greater policy flexibility in bad times. They can also broaden the sovereign’s investor base, open opportunities for risk diversification for investors, and enhance the resilience of the international financial system. Should SCDI issuance rise to account for a large share of public debt, it could also significantly reduce the incidence and cost of sovereign debt crises. Some potential complications require mitigation: a high novelty and liquidity premium demanded by investors in the early stage of market development; adverse selection and moral hazard risks; undesirable pricing effects on conventional debt; pro-cyclical investor demand; migration of excessive risk to the private sector; and adverse political economy incentives.
The Role Of State Contingent Debt Instruments In Sovereign Debt Restructurings
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Author : Charles Cohen
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-11-19
The Role Of State Contingent Debt Instruments In Sovereign Debt Restructurings written by Charles Cohen and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.
Debt Dilution And Sovereign Default Risk
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Author : Dr. Leonardo Martinez
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-03-01
Debt Dilution And Sovereign Default Risk written by Dr. Leonardo Martinez and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose a modification to a baseline sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of debt dilution in accounting for the level and volatility of the interest rate spread paid by sovereigns. We measure the effects of debt dilution by comparing the simulations of the baseline model (with debt dilution) with the ones of the modified model without dilution. We calibrate the baseline model to mimic the mean and standard deviation of the spread, as well as the external debt level, the mean debt duration and a measure of default frequency in the data. We find that, even without commitment to future repayment policies and withoutcontingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate debt dilution, the number of default per 100 years decreases from 3.10 to 0.42. The mean spread decreases from 7.38% to 0.57%. The standard deviation of the spread decreases from 2.45 to 0.72. Default risk falls in part because of a reduction of the level of sovereign debt (36% of the face value and of 11% of the market value). But we show that the most important effect of dilution on default risk results from a shift in the set of government''s borrowing opportunities. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could be present.
Care Homes In A Turbulent Era
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Author : Komla Dzigbede
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-08-14
Care Homes In A Turbulent Era written by Komla Dzigbede and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-14 with Political Science categories.
This scholarly Research Handbook captures key observations and analyses within the field of public financial management. It offers much-needed insights into possible future research ventures while presenting contemporary summaries of past studies in this ever-evolving field.
Research Handbook Of Financial Markets
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Author : Refet S. Gürkaynak
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-05-09
Research Handbook Of Financial Markets written by Refet S. Gürkaynak and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The Research Handbook of Financial Markets carefully discusses the histories and current states of the most important financial markets and institutions, as well as explicitly underscoring open questions that need study. By describing the institutional structure of different markets and highlighting recent changes within them, it accurately highlights their evolving nature.