Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation
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Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation
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Author : Mai Dao
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09
Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation written by Mai Dao and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation.
Precautionary Monetary And Fiscal Policies
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Author : Pelin Berkmen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2007-02
Precautionary Monetary And Fiscal Policies written by Pelin Berkmen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explains why the debt reduction motive for countries that are subject to borrowing constraints and a volatile environment is greater than for those with a more stable environment and relatively better access to the financial markets. In particular, it shows that the possibility of losing the ability to borrow in the future induces precautionary debt reduction. When a government loses its ability to borrow, shocks are more costly to the economy, since they cannot be spread over time. The precautionary motive arises from the need to make these adjustments less painful when the borrowing constraints bind. To avoid large losses in the constrained period, the government prefers to raise taxes and inflation in earlier periods more than would be implied otherwise, leaving less debt to the future periods, and thereby shifting some of the required adjustment to the earlier periods. In other words, the coexistence of large shocks and borrowing constraints forces the government to be more prudent in its management of debt.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
World Economic Outlook April 2024
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-16
World Economic Outlook April 2024 written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-16 with Business & Economics categories.
The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-03-01
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation
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Author : Mr. Jiaqian Chen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-15
Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation written by Mr. Jiaqian Chen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.
Firms Resilience To Energy Shocks And Response To Fiscal Incentives Assessing The Impact Of 2022 Energy Crisis
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Author : David Amaglobeli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-02-09
Firms Resilience To Energy Shocks And Response To Fiscal Incentives Assessing The Impact Of 2022 Energy Crisis written by David Amaglobeli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The energy price shock in 2022 led to government support for firms in some countries, sparking debate about the rationale and the nature of such support. The results from nationally representative firm surveys in the United States and Germany indicate that firms in these countries were generally resilient. Coping strategies adopted by firms included the pass-through of higher costs to consumers, adjustment of profit margins (United States) and investments in energy saving and efficiency (Germany). Firms in energy-intensive industries would have been significantly more affected if international energy prices were fully passed through to domestic prices in Europe. Survey responses further reveal that most firms are uncertain about the impact of recent policy announcments on green subsidies. Firms take advantage of fiscal incentives to accelerate their climate-related investment plans are often those that have previous plans to do so. These findings suggest better targeting and enhancing policy certainty will be important when facilitate the green transition among firms.
Shared Problem Shared Solution Benefits From Fiscal Monetary Interactions In The Euro Area
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Author : Robert C. M. Beyer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-21
Shared Problem Shared Solution Benefits From Fiscal Monetary Interactions In The Euro Area written by Robert C. M. Beyer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper employs two established macroeconomic models to show that fiscal policy in the euro area can help monetary policy in reducing inflation. Specifically, a fiscal consolidation of 1 percent of GDP for two years and 0.5 percent in the third year across the euro area would ease the policy interest rate by 30-50 basis points relative to the baseline scenario, while lowering inflation. It would also put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path, with the output costs reversing after the second year. Additionally, a stronger fiscal contribution to the policy mix could mitigate financial fragmentation risks. In the current context of elevated inflation in all euro area economies, the findings suggest two key takeaways: first, synchronized fiscal and monetary policies offer gains even when monetary policy is unconstrained and, second, sharing the burden of lowering inflation through fiscal consolidation among euro area members is beneficial for union-wide inflation reduction, improving debt sustainability and inducing a lower policy rate path.
Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation
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Author : Christopher J. Erceg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-05
Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation written by Christopher J. Erceg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Many countries have used energy subsidies to cushion the effects of high energy prices on households and firms. After documenting the transmission of oil supply shocks empirically in the United States and the Euro Area, we use a New Keynesian modeling framework to study the conditions under which these policies can curb inflation. We first consider a closed economy model to show that a consumer subsidy may be counterproductive, especially as an inflation-fighting tool, when applied globally or in a segmented market, at least under empirically plausible conditions about wage-setting. We find more scope for energy subsidies to reduce core inflation and stimulate demand if introduced by a small group of countries which collectively do not have much influence on global energy prices. However, the conditions under which consumer energy subsidies reduce inflation are still quite restrictive, and this type of policy may well be counterproductive if the resulting increase in external debt is high enough to trigger sizeable exchange rate depreciation. Such effects are more likely in emerging markets with shallow foreign exchange markets. If the primary goal of using fiscal measures in response to spikes in energy prices is to shield vulnerable households, then targeted transfers are much more efficient as they achieve their goals at lower fiscal cost and transmit less to core inflation.
Demand Vs Supply Decomposition Of Inflation Cross Country Evidence With Applications
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Author : Melih Firat
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-17
Demand Vs Supply Decomposition Of Inflation Cross Country Evidence With Applications written by Melih Firat and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-17 with Business & Economics categories.
What are the contributions of demand and supply factors to inflation? To address this question, we follow Shapiro (2022) and construct quarterly demand-driven and supply-driven inflation series for 32 countries utilizing sectoral Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. We highlight global trends and country-specific differences in inflation decompositions during critical periods such as the great financial crisis of 2008 and the recent inflation surge since 2021. Validating our inflation series, we find that supply-driven inflation is more reactive to oil shocks and supply chain pressures, while demand-driven inflation displays a more pronounced response to monetary policy shocks. Our results also suggest a steeper Phillips curve when inflation is demand-driven, holding significant implications for effective policy design.