Understanding The Role Of Risk And Uncertainty In Sequential Decision Making During Information Acquisition
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Understanding The Role Of Risk And Uncertainty In Sequential Decision Making During Information Acquisition
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Author : Michael Thomas Braun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Understanding The Role Of Risk And Uncertainty In Sequential Decision Making During Information Acquisition written by Michael Thomas Braun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Choice (Psychology) categories.
When employees are faced with novel situations it is often necessary for them to acquire new information. Unreliability of information sources and uncertainty regarding information usefulness make the information acquisition process analogous to a sequence of risky decisions. Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) and its generalizations are currently the dominant approach to the study of risky decision making in psychology and economics due to their ability to accurately describe the decision biases that are frequently document in the presence of risk and uncertainty. Using a lab-based computer simulation, CRONUS SOLO, common biases from the Prospect Theory literature are examined for sequential risky decision making during information acquisition. Additionally, common relationships between individual differences and sequential risky decision making as well as the effect of learning and feedback on risky decision making are explored. The biases present during the information acquisition process are not fully explained by Prospect Theory and its generalizations. Overall, individuals became more efficient and optimal decision makers over time. The effects of information reliability, information framing, and specific individual differences are presented. Finally, potential explanations for the current findings as well as implications for training are discussed. -- Abstract.
Completing The Forecast
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2006-10-09
Completing The Forecast written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-10-09 with Science categories.
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2015-07-24
Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-24 with Computers categories.
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Understanding Initial Coin Offerings
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Author : Dmitri Boreiko
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2024-03-14
Understanding Initial Coin Offerings written by Dmitri Boreiko and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Delving into the comprehensive evolution of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), this innovative book traces their origins and transition into modern forms such as Security Token Offerings, Initial Exchange Offerings, Initial DEX Offerings, and Non-Fungible Tokens. It provides an in-depth analysis of the factors behind the appeal of ICOs, the complex ecosystem surrounding them, and the key developments within the blockchain and cryptocurrency space.
Structured Decision Making
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Author : David R. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Release Date : 2020-05-12
Structured Decision Making written by David R. Smith and has been published by Johns Hopkins University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-12 with Science categories.
Smith, Jennifer A. Szymanski, Terry Walshe, Nicolas Zuël
Handbook On Decision Making
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Author : Jie Lu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-03-15
Handbook On Decision Making written by Jie Lu and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Value Of Information And Flexibility
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Author : Martin J. Vilela
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-10-21
Value Of Information And Flexibility written by Martin J. Vilela and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-21 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Cengage AU
Release Date :
written by and has been published by Cengage AU this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Personality Information Acquisition And Choice Under Uncertainty
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Author : Guillaume R. Fréchette
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Personality Information Acquisition And Choice Under Uncertainty written by Guillaume R. Fréchette and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
This article studies the role of personality in choice under risk and uncertainty. We explore the hypothesis that personality plays a role in decision making in situations of uncertainty but not in situations of risk. In addition to offering support for this main hypothesis, we explore the various pathways through which personality exerts its influence. What we find is that in uncertain environments, where decision makers are able to acquire information about the unknown probability distributions they face, personality variables influence the type of information people acquire, which then influences their choice. Our experimental design brings in two novel aspects of choice under uncertainty: information acquisition and advice. The findings indicate that indeed, under uncertainty, personality matters for choice in a way it does not under risk. Furthermore, the results suggest that personality can play a role at multiple levels, such as people's preferences for certain types of information and the likelihood of following advice.
Predecisional Processes In Decision Making
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1964
Predecisional Processes In Decision Making written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1964 with categories.