Using Quantitative And Qualitative Models To Forecast Instability
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Using Quantitative And Qualitative Models To Forecast Instability
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Author : Jack A. Goldstone
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Using Quantitative And Qualitative Models To Forecast Instability written by Jack A. Goldstone and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Conflict management categories.
Using Quantitative And Qualitative Models To Forecast Instability
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Author : Jack A. Goldstone
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Using Quantitative And Qualitative Models To Forecast Instability written by Jack A. Goldstone and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
Cult Of The Irrelevant
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Author : Michael C. Desch
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2021-09-28
Cult Of The Irrelevant written by Michael C. Desch and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-28 with History categories.
How professionalization and scholarly “rigor” made social scientists increasingly irrelevant to US national security policy To mobilize America’s intellectual resources to meet the security challenges of the post–9/11 world, US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates observed that “we must again embrace eggheads and ideas.” But the gap between national security policymakers and international relations scholars has become a chasm. In Cult of the Irrelevant, Michael Desch traces the history of the relationship between the Beltway and the Ivory Tower from World War I to the present day. Recounting key Golden Age academic strategists such as Thomas Schelling and Walt Rostow, Desch’s narrative shows that social science research became most oriented toward practical problem-solving during times of war and that scholars returned to less relevant work during peacetime. Social science disciplines like political science rewarded work that was methodologically sophisticated over scholarship that engaged with the messy realities of national security policy, and academic culture increasingly turned away from the job of solving real-world problems. In the name of scientific objectivity, academics today frequently engage only in basic research that they hope will somehow trickle down to policymakers. Drawing on the lessons of this history as well as a unique survey of current and former national security policymakers, Desch offers concrete recommendations for scholars who want to shape government work. The result is a rich intellectual history and an essential wake-up call to a field that has lost its way.
The Politics And Science Of Prevision
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Author : Andreas Wenger
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-05-28
The Politics And Science Of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-28 with Political Science categories.
This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Non Traditional Security In Asia
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Author : Mely Caballero-Anthony
language : en
Publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
Release Date : 2013
Non Traditional Security In Asia written by Mely Caballero-Anthony and has been published by Institute of Southeast Asian Studies this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Political Science categories.
Non-Traditional Security in Asia examines the critical security challenges faced by states and societies in Asia including health, food, water, natural disasters, internal conflict, forced migration, energy, transnational crime, and cyber security. Through the development of a comprehensive analytical framework that establishes the key ingredients to policy evaluation, the editors draw on a wide variety of experts to collaborate in investigating these crucial issues. This inclusive framework ensures that all voices are heard including those oftentimes under-represented and marginalized in society to ensure that academic and policy debates are well informed about the often complex and nuanced nature of these non-traditional security challenges. Through an investigation into these specific non-traditional security threats, Non-Traditional Security in Asia documents and evaluates many of the most pressing challenges faced by Asia today. The authors analyse the ways in which particular issues are addressed by the many stakeholders involved in the policy-making process, both within governments and across societies. The question of how these challenges are addressed across and between the different levels of global governance highlights the strengths and weakness that are directly attributable to policy successes and failures. It is through this layered and comprehensive approach, together with an evaluation of the role of stakeholders, which binds together the chapter contributions to this collection. The book undertakes an issue-specific chapter study of how Asian states and societies address these non-traditional security concerns from environmental adaptation and mitigation measures to conflict resolution. For each issue area, it identifies and explains the concerns of various policy communities, identifying the motivations behind some of the key decisions made to affect change or stabilize the status quo. Essentially it questions not only what a security issue is but also for whom the issue is important and the interaction this has with policy outcomes. With a focus on regional and global institutions as well as national and local ones, this collection illustrates the variety of stakeholders involved in non-traditional security concerns, and reflects on their relative importance in the decision-making process. Through a systematic evaluation of these non-traditional security issues by employing a comprehensive analytical framework, critical appreciation of the dynamics of the policy-making process surrounding issues of crucial national, regional and international significance in Asia are made. As a result of sharing these insights, the contributors provide the tools as well as a selection of issue-specific stakeholders to illuminate the key but complex characteristics of non-traditional security in Asia.
Piracy And Maritime Terrorism Logistics Strategies Scenarios
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Author : Silvia Ciotti Galletti
language : en
Publisher: SAGE Publications Limited
Release Date : 2012-04-15
Piracy And Maritime Terrorism Logistics Strategies Scenarios written by Silvia Ciotti Galletti and has been published by SAGE Publications Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-15 with Social Science categories.
For much of history, pirates and buccaneers constituted one of the most serious threats to maritime activities all over the world. More recently, apart from adventure stories and swashbuckling films, maritime piracy was largely thought of as a thing of the past. This began to change in 1994 when an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review drew public attention to the renaissance of a phenomenon: piracy was back, and it was becoming increasingly violent, involving huge ships in international waters. This book is based on the proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, held in 2009 in Lisbon, Portugal. Its main purpose was to promote dialogue on the phenomenon of maritime piracy between international policymakers, law enforcement officers, port authorities and other professionals, and to provide a response to the need for research and analysis at an international level on maritime piracy and its connection to terrorism. The book does not simply report on the proceedings of the workshop, but also includes some new topics not covered by the ARW, and is organized in three sections: new methodological approaches to maritime threats; new threats and new challenges in piracy and maritime terrorism and lastly; some selected case studies: different threats, different solutions. The book offers qualified ideas, opinions and talking points to the international practitioner community, will foster debate and help law enforcement agencies and policymakers to face the new world wide maritime threats of piracy and terrorism.
Studies In Intelligence Vol 56 No 1
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Government Printing Office
Release Date :
Studies In Intelligence Vol 56 No 1 written by and has been published by Government Printing Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Critical Thinking For Strategic Intelligence
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Author : Katherine Hibbs Pherson
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2016-10-14
Critical Thinking For Strategic Intelligence written by Katherine Hibbs Pherson and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-14 with Political Science categories.
With this second edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Randolph H. Pherson and Katherine Hibbs Pherson update their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. New material includes a chapter on working with statistics and probabilities at an introductory level; discussions on how to work with social media; managing the “big data” phenomenon and what role analysis plays both at the front and back end of utilizing such information. Each of the book’s chapters are consistently organized, enabling students and analysts alike to easily trace the key steps of: Setting the Stage; Looking More Deeply; Key Takeaways; Considering the Case Study, and the book’s illustrations include useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques for arriving at the best possible analytical products. The “Analyst’s Roadmap” provides an at-a-glance “map” for readers depicting the best practices involved in perfecting the analytical product. A set of carefully crafted case studies on national intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement issues illustrate how to apply these critical thinking skills tie directly to end-of-chapter questions, providing valuable self-assessment opportunities.
Warning About War
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Author : Christoph O. Meyer
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2020
Warning About War written by Christoph O. Meyer and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with History categories.
Explains how and when public and non-public warnings about future conflicts affect decision-making in Western states and international organisations.
Studies In Intelligence
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Studies In Intelligence written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Intelligence service categories.