Utility Theories Measurements And Applications
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Utility Theories Measurements And Applications
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Author : Ward Edwards
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-01
Utility Theories Measurements And Applications written by Ward Edwards and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.
Choice Decision And Measurement
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Author : A.A.J. Marley
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-05-23
Choice Decision And Measurement written by A.A.J. Marley and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-23 with Psychology categories.
This volume is the result of a conference held at the University of California, Irvine, on the topics that provide its title -- choice, decision, and measurement. The conference was planned, and the volume prepared, in honor of Professor R. Duncan Luce on his 70th birthday. Following a short autobiographical statement by Luce, the volume is organized into four topics, to each of which Luce has made significant contributions. The book provides an overview of current issues in each area and presents some of the best recent theoretical and empirical work. Personal reflections on Luce and his work begin each section. These reflections were written by outstanding senior researchers: Peter Fishburn (Preference and Decision Making), Patrick Suppes (Measurement Theory and Axiomatic Systems), William J. McGill (Psychophysics and Reaction Time), and W.K. Estes (Choice, Identification and Categorization). The first section presents recent theoretical and empirical work on descriptive models of decision making, and theoretical results on general probabilistic models of choice and ranking. Luce's recent theoretical and empirical work on rank- and sign-dependent utility theory is important in many of these contributions. The second section presents results from psychophysics, probabilistic measurement, aggregation of expert opinion, and test theory. The third section presents various process oriented models, with supportive data, for tasks such as redundant signal detection, forced choice, and absolute identification. The final section contains theory and data on categorization and attention, and general theoretical results for developing and testing models in these domains.
Behavioral Decision Theory
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Author : Kazuhisa Takemura
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-09-29
Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.
Decision Science And Technology
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Author : James Shanteau
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Decision Science And Technology written by James Shanteau and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
Probability In Economics
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Author : Omar Hamouda
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-04-15
Probability In Economics written by Omar Hamouda and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed. This book addresses: * probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice * concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy * experimental economics * econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.
Research On Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : William M. Goldstein
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1997-06-13
Research On Judgment And Decision Making written by William M. Goldstein and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-06-13 with Education categories.
This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.
Decisionmaking On War And Peace
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Author : Nehemia Geva
language : en
Publisher: Lynne Rienner Publishers
Release Date : 1997
Decisionmaking On War And Peace written by Nehemia Geva and has been published by Lynne Rienner Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Political Science categories.
Reviewing, comparing, and contrasting models of foreign policy, this volume focuses on the cognitive vs rational debate about decisionmaking on war and peace. It provides alternative models of foreign policy choice and identifies when one strategy is more appropriate than another.
Prospect Theory
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Author : Peter P. Wakker
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-07-22
Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Multicriteria Methodology For Decision Aiding
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Author : B. Roy
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-11
Multicriteria Methodology For Decision Aiding written by B. Roy and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
axiomatic results should be at the heart of such a science. Through them, we should be able to enlighten and scientifically assist decision-making processes especially by: - making that wh ich is objective stand out more c1early from that which is less objective; - separating robust from fragile conc1usions; - dissipating certain forms of misunderstanding in communication; - avoiding the pitfall of illusory reasoning; - emphasizing, once they are understood, incontrovertible results. The difficulties I encountered at the begining of my career as an operations researcher, and later as a consultant, made me realize that there were some limitations on objectivity in decision-aiding. In my opinion, five major aspects must be taken into consideration: 1) The borderline (or frontier) between what is and what is not feasible is often fuzzy. Moreover, this borderline is frequently modified in light of what is found from the study itself. 2) In many real-world problems, the "decision maker D" does not really exist as a person truly able to make adecision. Usually, several people (actors or stakeholders) take part in the decision process, and it is important not to confuse the one who ratifies adecision with the so-called decision maker in the decision ai ding process. This decision maker is in fact the person or the set of persons for whom or in the name of whom decision aiding effort is provided.
Utility Of Gains And Losses
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Author : R. Duncan Luce
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2014-04-04
Utility Of Gains And Losses written by R. Duncan Luce and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-04 with Psychology categories.
This new monograph presents Dr. Luce's current understanding of the behavioral properties people exhibit (or should exhibit) when they make selections among alternatives and how these properties lead to numerical representations of those preferences. It summarizes, and places in historical perspective, the research Dr. Luce has done on utility theory for over 10 years. Included are axiomatic theoretical formulations, experiments designed to test individual assumptions, and analyses of the fit to bodies of data of numerical representations derived from the theory.