What Prevents A Real Business Cycle Model From Matching The U S Data Decomposing The Labor Wedge
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What Prevents A Real Business Cycle Model From Matching The U S Data Decomposing The Labor Wedge
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Author : Dmitry Plotnikov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-08
What Prevents A Real Business Cycle Model From Matching The U S Data Decomposing The Labor Wedge written by Dmitry Plotnikov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on the U.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast to a conventional approach, this approach preserves common medium-term business cycle fluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it facilitates decomposition of the labor wedge into the labor supply and the labor demand wedges. Using this business cycle accounting methodology, I find that in the transformed data, most movements in GDP are accounted for by the labor supply wedge. Therefore, I reverse a key finding of the real business cycle literature which asserts that 70% or more of economic fluctuations can be explained by TFP shocks. In other words, the real business cycle model fits the data badly because the assumption that households are on their labor supply equation is flawed. This failure is masked by data that has been filtered with a conventional approach that removes fluctuations at medium frequencies. My findings are consistent with the literature on incomplete labor markets.
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-09
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-11
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.
Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations
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Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2004-12-01
Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Inflation And Output Dynamics In Models Of The Business Cycle
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Author : Oleksiy Kryvtsov
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Inflation And Output Dynamics In Models Of The Business Cycle written by Oleksiy Kryvtsov and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with categories.
Optimal Unemployment Insurance
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Author : Andreas Pollak
language : en
Publisher: Mohr Siebeck
Release Date : 2007
Optimal Unemployment Insurance written by Andreas Pollak and has been published by Mohr Siebeck this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
Designing a good unemployment insurance scheme is a delicate matter. In a system with no or little insurance, households may be subject to a high income risk, whereas excessively generous unemployment insurance systems are known to lead to high unemployment rates and are costly both from a fiscal perspective and for society as a whole. Andreas Pollak investigates what an optimal unemployment insurance system would look like, i.e. a system that constitutes the best possible compromise between income security and incentives to work. Using theoretical economic models and complex numerical simulations, he studies the effects of benefit levels and payment durations on unemployment and welfare. As the models allow for considerable heterogeneity of households, including a history-dependent labor productivity, it is possible to analyze how certain policies affect individuals in a specific age, wealth or skill group. The most important aspect of an unemployment insurance system turns out to be the benefits paid to the long-term unemployed. If this parameter is chosen too high, a large number of households may get caught in a long spell of unemployment with little chance of finding work again. Based on the predictions in these models, the so-called "Hartz IV" labor market reform recently adopted in Germany should have highly favorable effects on the unemployment rates and welfare in the long run.
Household Leverage And The Recession
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Author : Callum Jones
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-08-30
Household Leverage And The Recession written by Callum Jones and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-30 with Business & Economics categories.
We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.
New Developments In Productivity Analysis
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Author : Charles R. Hulten
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-11-01
New Developments In Productivity Analysis written by Charles R. Hulten and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-01 with Medical categories.
The productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s and the resumption of productivity growth in the 1990s have provoked controversy among policymakers and researchers. Economists have been forced to reexamine fundamental questions of measurement technique. Some researchers argue that econometric approaches to productivity measurement usefully address shortcomings of the dominant index number techniques while others maintain that current productivity statistics underreport damage to the environment. In this book, the contributors propose innovative approaches to these issues. The result is a state-of-the-art exposition of contemporary productivity analysis. Charles R. Hulten is professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He has been a senior research associate at the Urban Institute and is chair of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Michael Harper is chief of the Division of Productivity Research at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Edwin R. Dean, formerly associate commissioner for Productivity and Technology at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is adjunct professor of economics at The George Washington University.
Dissertation Abstracts International
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Dissertation Abstracts International written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Dissertations, Academic categories.