When Can Trend Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted

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When Can Trend Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted

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Author : Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

When Can Trend Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted written by Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.

The Great Web 3 0 Glossary

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Author : Nikolas Beutin
language : en
Publisher: Fachmedien Recht und Wirtschaft
Release Date : 2023-02-14

The Great Web 3 0 Glossary written by Nikolas Beutin and has been published by Fachmedien Recht und Wirtschaft this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-14 with Law categories.

Metaverse, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Service Robots etc. are a rapidly expanding field with an ever-increasing number of terms and community-specific jargon. A new term is not always accompanied by something truly novel. In addition to verbal "pseudo-innuendos" and "crypto-slang" introduced with the intent of attracting attention quickly, there are several significant new developments. The issue with this development is that the risk of "Babylonian language confusion" is growing exponentially. Our observations indicate that this risk is particularly prevalent in the dialogue between science and practice. This book hopes to contribute to the clarification with quick access to all key terms. Obviously, many online marketplaces, platforms, encyclopedias, and glossaries already exist. However, our pre-book analysis has revealed that neither is even close to completion, sometimes with imprecise language and often with contradictory definitions and explanations. This glossary provides quick access for managers, students, and professors alike who are faced with the topics in their daily work. Students may keep track of the web 3.0's numerous terms as they study it. Instructors, teachers, and professors may use it as a guide for a consistent use of Metaverse, NFT, Cryptocurrency, and Blockchain terminology. Although, the more than 1,300 explanations of the individual terms are scientifically based, the focus is on easy understanding of the terms. The authors have made an effort to provide clear and concise definitions, an application-focused perspective, and simple language.

A Steady State Approach To Trend Cycle Decomposition

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Author : James Christopher Morley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

A Steady State Approach To Trend Cycle Decomposition written by James Christopher Morley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Economic forecasting categories.

Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators

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Author : Tahsin Saadi-Sedik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-08-01

Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators written by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.

Forecasting Financial And Economic Cycles

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Author : Michael P. Niemira
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 1994-03-31

Forecasting Financial And Economic Cycles written by Michael P. Niemira and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.

Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago

Seasonal Adjustment Methods And Real Time Trend Cycle Estimation

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Author : Estela Bee Dagum
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-06-20

Seasonal Adjustment Methods And Real Time Trend Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-20 with Business & Economics categories.

This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.

Practicing Trustworthy Machine Learning

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Author : Yada Pruksachatkun
language : en
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Release Date : 2023-01-03

Practicing Trustworthy Machine Learning written by Yada Pruksachatkun and has been published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc." this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-03 with Computers categories.

With the increasing use of AI in high-stakes domains such as medicine, law, and defense, organizations spend a lot of time and money to make ML models trustworthy. Many books on the subject offer deep dives into theories and concepts. This guide provides a practical starting point to help development teams produce models that are secure, more robust, less biased, and more explainable. Authors Yada Pruksachatkun, Matthew McAteer, and Subhabrata Majumdar translate best practices in the academic literature for curating datasets and building models into a blueprint for building industry-grade trusted ML systems. With this book, engineers and data scientists will gain a much-needed foundation for releasing trustworthy ML applications into a noisy, messy, and often hostile world. You'll learn: Methods to explain ML models and their outputs to stakeholders How to recognize and fix fairness concerns and privacy leaks in an ML pipeline How to develop ML systems that are robust and secure against malicious attacks Important systemic considerations, like how to manage trust debt and which ML obstacles require human intervention

Housing Markets In Europe

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Author : Olivier de Bandt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-10-14

Housing Markets In Europe written by Olivier de Bandt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.

During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.

An Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

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Author : Robert Alan Yaffee
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2000-05-12

An Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting written by Robert Alan Yaffee and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-05-12 with Mathematics categories.

Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques. Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology Math level pitched to general social science usage Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels

Multiplicity Of Time Scales In Complex Systems

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Author : Bernhelm Booss
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024

Multiplicity Of Time Scales In Complex Systems written by Bernhelm Booss and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024 with System theory categories.

This highly interdisciplinary volume brings together a carefully curated set of case studies examining complex systems with multiple time scales (MTS) across a variety of fields: materials science, epidemiology, cell physiology, mathematics, climatology, energy transition planning, ecology, economics, sociology, history, and cultural studies. The book addresses the vast diversity of interacting processes underlying the behaviour of different complex systems, highlighting the multiplicity of characteristic time scales that are a common feature of many and showcases a rich variety of methodologies across disciplinary boundaries. Self-organizing, out-of-equilibrium, ever-evolving systems are ubiquitous in the natural and social world. Examples include the climate, ecosystems, living cells, epidemics, the human brain, and many socio-economic systems across history. Their dynamical behaviour poses great challenges in the pressing context of the climate crisis, since they may involve nonlinearities, feedback loops, and the emergence of spatial-temporal patterns, portrayed by resilience or instability, plasticity or rigidity; bifurcations, thresholds and tipping points; burst-in excitation or slow relaxation, and worlds of other asymptotic behaviour, hysteresis, and resistance to change. Chapters can be read individually by the reader with special interest in such behaviours of particular complex systems or in specific disciplinary perspectives. Read together, however, the case studies, opinion pieces, and meta-studies on MTS systems presented and analysed here combine to give the reader insights that are more than the sum of the book's individual chapters, as surprising similarities become apparent in seemingly disparate and unconnected systems. MTS systems call into question naïve perceptions of time and complexity, moving beyond conventional ways of description, analysis, understanding, modelling, numerical prediction, and prescription of the world around us. This edited collection presents new ways of forecasting, introduces new means of control, and -- perhaps as the most demanding task -- it singles out a sustainable description of an MTS system under observation, offering a more nuanced interpretation of the floods of quantitative data and images made available by high- and low-frequency measurement tools in our unprecedented era of information flows.