X Risk
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X Risk
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Author : Thomas Moynihan
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2020-11-03
X Risk written by Thomas Moynihan and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-03 with Social Science categories.
How humanity came to contemplate its possible extinction. From forecasts of disastrous climate change to prophecies of evil AI superintelligences and the impending perils of genome editing, our species is increasingly concerned with the prospects of its own extinction. With humanity's future on this planet seeming more insecure by the day, in the twenty-first century, existential risk has become the object of a growing field of serious scientific inquiry. But, as Thomas Moynihan shows in X-Risk, this preoccupation is not exclusive to the post-atomic age of global warming and synthetic biology. Our growing concern with human extinction itself has a history. Tracing this untold story, Moynihan revisits the pioneers who first contemplated the possibility of human extinction and stages the historical drama of this momentous discovery. He shows how, far from being a secular reprise of religious prophecies of apocalypse, existential risk is a thoroughly modern idea, made possible by the burgeoning sciences and philosophical tumult of the Enlightenment era. In recollecting how we first came to care for our extinction, Moynihan reveals how today's attempts to measure and mitigate existential threats are the continuation of a project initiated over two centuries ago, which concerns the very vocation of the human as a rational, responsible, and future-oriented being.
X Risk
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Author : Thomas Moynihan
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2020-10-20
X Risk written by Thomas Moynihan and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-20 with Social Science categories.
How humanity came to contemplate its possible extinction. From forecasts of disastrous climate change to prophecies of evil AI superintelligences and the impending perils of genome editing, our species is increasingly concerned with the prospects of its own extinction. With humanity's future on this planet seeming more insecure by the day, in the twenty-first century, existential risk has become the object of a growing field of serious scientific inquiry. But, as Thomas Moynihan shows in X-Risk, this preoccupation is not exclusive to the post-atomic age of global warming and synthetic biology. Our growing concern with human extinction itself has a history. Tracing this untold story, Moynihan revisits the pioneers who first contemplated the possibility of human extinction and stages the historical drama of this momentous discovery. He shows how, far from being a secular reprise of religious prophecies of apocalypse, existential risk is a thoroughly modern idea, made possible by the burgeoning sciences and philosophical tumult of the Enlightenment era. In recollecting how we first came to care for our extinction, Moynihan reveals how today's attempts to measure and mitigate existential threats are the continuation of a project initiated over two centuries ago, which concerns the very vocation of the human as a rational, responsible, and future-oriented being.
Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis
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Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-06-19
Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
Operational Risk Management
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Author : Philippa X. Girling
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-10-14
Operational Risk Management written by Philippa X. Girling and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.
A best practices guide to all of the elements of an effective operational risk framework While many organizations know how important operational risks are, they still continue to struggle with the best ways to identify and manage them. Organizations of all sizes and in all industries need best practices for identifying and managing key operational risks, if they intend on exceling in today's dynamic environment. Operational Risk Management fills this need by providing both the new and experienced operational risk professional with all of the tools and best practices needed to implement a successful operational risk framework. It also provides real-life examples of successful methods and tools you can use while facing the cultural challenges that are prevalent in this field. Contains informative post-mortems on some of the most notorious operational risk events of our time Explores the future of operational risk in the current regulatory environment Written by a recognized global expert on operational risk An effective operational risk framework is essential for today's organizations. This book will put you in a better position to develop one and use it to identify, assess, control, and mitigate any potential risks of this nature.
The Precipice
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Author : Toby Ord
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2020-03-24
The Precipice written by Toby Ord and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-24 with Philosophy categories.
This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last. "A book that seems made for the present moment." —New Yorker
Risk And The Smart Investor
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Author : David C. Martin
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2010-08-20
Risk And The Smart Investor written by David C. Martin and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Master the most important investing skill of all—DECISION MAKING “De-risking your investments requires knowing that there is much you don’t know.” –David X Martin Risk exists because of one simple fact: Decisions are always based on incomplete information. Therefore, to meet your investment goals over the long term, you must learn to manage the risks associated with a decision-making process that is by nature flawed. Risk and the Smart Investor provides a framework for making such decisions. Avoiding unrealistic promises of completely risk-free investing, world-renowned risk management expert David X Martin familiarizes you with the principles of risk management. Based on Martin’s experience in managing risk at several of the world’s largest financial institutions, this principlebased approach presents a unique perspective that helps you manage the risk in every investment you make. Risk and the Smart Investor provides not only a framework for managing risk in today’s markets, it also prepares you to handle the next financial crisis—which is coming, sooner or later—by separating risk management into four separate processes: Assessment—know where you are, but accept the fact that you cannot know everything The Rules of the Game—determine your appetite for risk, diversify accordingly, demand transparency, and institute checks and balances Decision Making—consider all alternatives, fit your plans into specific time frames, and always have an exit strategy Reevaluation—continually monitor the outcomes of your decisions and learn from your mistakes Praise for Risk and the Smart Investor “Interesting and instructive. A good book for those who want to learn about risk and build this knowledge into their financial decisions.” —John Reed, former CEO, Citigroup “David Martin has produced a popular yet serious post-financial crisis reflection on the fundamentals of risk management as a living process. Rich in experience and wisdom, Risk and the Smart Investor is both a useful handbook brimming with insights, and a moral tale for our times. Simply a must-read for every serious investor, risk manager, and just about everyone else.” —Michael Power, professor, London School of Economics and Political Science “David Martin knows risk and the active investor and his book proves it.” —Jerry Lieberman “This book is like having your own mentor to guide you through risk management decisions.” —William Rhodes, Chairman, Citigroup and Citibank
The Nature Of Risk
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Author : David X. Martin
language : en
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2012-07-17
The Nature Of Risk written by David X. Martin and has been published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-17 with Risk management categories.
The Nature of Risk is a short, beautifully illustrated and easy-to-understand book written to help readers face one of modern life's most important and difficult tasks-confronting risk. Free of complicated theories or formulas, The Nature of Risk relies instead on a simple story featuring a cast of familiar, forest-dwelling animals, each of which embodies a different approach to risk management. At least one of these approaches will seem familiar to every reader-whether they knew they had an approach to risk management or not. Then, as the story unfolds, the strengths and weaknesses of each approach will be revealed through a series of "natural" tests. Finally, at the conclusion of the story, readers will come to a short review section designed to help them frame their first attempts at managing risk-with or without professional help.
Risks Of Artificial Intelligence
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Author : Vincent C. Müller
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-01-05
Risks Of Artificial Intelligence written by Vincent C. Müller and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-05 with Computers categories.
Featuring contributions from leading experts and thinkers in the theory of artificial intelligence (AI), this is one of the first books dedicated to examining the risks of AI. The book evaluates predictions of the future of AI, proposes ways to ensure that AI systems will be beneficial to humans, and then critically evaluates such proposals. The book covers the latest AI research, including the risks and future impacts. Ethical issues in AI are covered extensively along with an exploration of autonomous technology and its impact on humanity.
The Known The Unknown And The Unknowable In Financial Risk Management
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2010-04-19
The Known The Unknown And The Unknowable In Financial Risk Management written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-19 with Business & Economics categories.
A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU --the K nown, the u nknown, and the U nknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety of KuU risks. Along the way, the strengths and limitations of "quantitative" risk management are revealed. In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. Introduces a new risk-management paradigm Features contributions by leaders in finance and economics Demonstrates how "killer risks" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentives Shows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty
The Social Contours Of Risk Risk Analysis Corporations And The Globalization Of Risk
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Author : Jeanne X. Kasperson
language : en
Publisher: Earthscan
Release Date : 2005
The Social Contours Of Risk Risk Analysis Corporations And The Globalization Of Risk written by Jeanne X. Kasperson and has been published by Earthscan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
The Social Contours of RiskVolume I: Publics, Risk Communication and the Social Amplification of RiskWe live in a 'risk society' where the identification, distribution and management of risks, from new technology, environmental factors or other sources are crucial to our individual and social existence. In The Social Contours of Risk, Volumes I and II, two of the world's leading and most influential analysts of the social dimensions of risk bring together their most important contributions to this fundamental and wide-ranging field.Volume I collects their fundamental work on how risks are communicated among different publics and stakeholders, including local communities, corporations and the larger society. It analyses the problems of lack of transparency and trust, and explores how even minor effects can be amplified and distorted through media and social responses, preventing effective management. The final section investigates the difficult ethical issues raised by the unequal distribution of risk depending on factors such as wealth, location and genetic inheritance - with examples from worker and public protection, facility-siting conflicts, transporting hazardous waste and widespread impacts such as climate change.