A Quantitative Microfounded Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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A Quantitative Microfounded Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Mr. Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-17
A Quantitative Microfounded Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr. Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve monetary policy tradeoffs under some conditions, including by reducing the need for procyclical tightening in response to capital outflow pressures. Moreover, they can be used in a preemptive way to reduce the risk of a “sudden stop” through curbing a buildup in leverage. While these tools can materially improve welfare, mainly by dampening inefficient fluctuations in risk premia, our analysis also highlights potential limitations, including the possibility that their deployment may forestall needed adjustment in the external balance. Finally, our results also emphasize the power of FXIs to provide domestic stimulus in a liquidity trap.
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-07-07
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of volatile capital flows on their economies. We develop an empirically-oriented New Keynesian model to evaluate and quantify how using multiple policy tools can potentially improve monetary policy tradeoffs. Our model embeds nonlinear balance sheet channels and includes a range of empirically-relevant frictions. We show that FXI and CFMs may improve policy tradeoffs under certain conditions, especially for economies with less well-anchored inflation expectations, substantial foreign currency mismatch, and that are more vulnerable to shocks likely to induce capital outflows and exchange rate pressures.
A Medium Scale Dsge Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Mr. Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-01-28
A Medium Scale Dsge Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr. Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Exchange Rate Swings And Foreign Currency Intervention
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Author : Andrew Filardo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-07-29
Exchange Rate Swings And Foreign Currency Intervention written by Andrew Filardo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.
Republic Of Kazakhstan Selected Issues
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-04-11
Republic Of Kazakhstan Selected Issues written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
2024 Staff Guidance Note On The Imf S Engagement With Small Developing States
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-25
2024 Staff Guidance Note On The Imf S Engagement With Small Developing States written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-25 with categories.
This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.
Vietnam
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-27
Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-27 with categories.
Vietnam: Selected Issues
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Mr. Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-10
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
Capital Controls On Outflows New Evidence And A Theoretical Framework
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Author : Roberto Chang
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-26
Capital Controls On Outflows New Evidence And A Theoretical Framework written by Roberto Chang and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-26 with categories.
We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such empirical findings and also yields policy and welfare lessons. The theory features costly coordination failures by foreign investors which can sometimes be avoided by suitably tailored CCOs. The benefits of CCOs as coordination devices can make them optimal even if CCOs entail deadweight losses; if the latter are large, however, CCOs are detrimental for welfare. We show that optimal CCOs can suffer from time inconsistency, and also how political opportunism may limit CCO policy. Hence government credibility and reputation building emerge as critical for the successful implementation of CCOs.
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries
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Author : Valeriu Nalban
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-23
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries written by Valeriu Nalban and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-23 with categories.
Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies.