Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Mr. Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-10
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment
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Author : Mr. Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-05-04
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment written by Mr. Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
The Algebraic Galaxy Of Simple Macroeconomic Models
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Author : Mr.Evan C Tanner
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-24
The Algebraic Galaxy Of Simple Macroeconomic Models written by Mr.Evan C Tanner and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Simple macroeconomic frameworks like the IS/LM have survived because they help us conceptualize complex problems while also providing ‘back of the envelope’ estimates of macroeconomic outcomes. Herein, a bare-bones New Keynesian extension of the IS/LM model yields solutions for core macro variables (output gap, inflation, interest rate, real exchange rate misvaluation)—expressed in percent. We then extend that standard model to also generate a corresponding set of demand-side elements—expressed in currency units. A key aim of the paper is to reconcile these two metrics in ways that also aid communication and intuition—including through IS/LM-style graphs.
An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka
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Author : Chandranath Amarasekara
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-25
An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-07-07
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of volatile capital flows on their economies. We develop an empirically-oriented New Keynesian model to evaluate and quantify how using multiple policy tools can potentially improve monetary policy tradeoffs. Our model embeds nonlinear balance sheet channels and includes a range of empirically-relevant frictions. We show that FXI and CFMs may improve policy tradeoffs under certain conditions, especially for economies with less well-anchored inflation expectations, substantial foreign currency mismatch, and that are more vulnerable to shocks likely to induce capital outflows and exchange rate pressures.
Wage Growth And Inflation In Europe A Puzzle
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Author : Vizhdan Boranova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20
Wage Growth And Inflation In Europe A Puzzle written by Vizhdan Boranova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
Sterilization Of Money Inflows
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Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
Sterilization Of Money Inflows written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Capital movements categories.
Wildlife Dna Analysis
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Author : Adrian Linacre
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-03-27
Wildlife Dna Analysis written by Adrian Linacre and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-27 with Medical categories.
Clearly structured throughout, the introduction highlights the different types of crime where these techniques are regularly used. This chapter includes a discussion as to who performs forensic wildlife examinations, the standardisation and validation of methods, and the role of the expert witness in this type of alleged crime. This is followed by a detailed section on the science behind DNA typing including the problems in isolating DNA from trace material and subsequent genetic analysis are also covered. The book then undertakes a comprehensive review of species testing using DNA, including a step-by-step guide to sequence comparisons. A comparison of the different markers used in species testing highlights the criteria for a genetic marker. A full set of case histories illustrates the use of the different markers used. The book details the use of genetic markers to link two or more hairs/feather/leaves/needles to the same individual organism and the software used in population assignment. The problems and possibilities in isolating markers, along with the construction of allele databases are discussed in this chapter. The book concludes with evaluation and reporting of genetic evidence in wildlife forensic science illustrated by examples of witness statements.
The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle Some New Empirical Regularities
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Author : Jose Saboin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07
The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle Some New Empirical Regularities written by Jose Saboin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this paper contribute to the literature of modern hyperinflations in that these cycles occur in contexts where there are (i) depressed economic freedoms, (ii) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions and rule of law, as well as (iii) high levels of domestic conflictivity and government instability. Despite social infraestructure factors improve during stabilization, they keep being substantially lower than the respresentative non-hyperinflation country, suggesting an important role for them in the occurrence of modern hypeinflations. Finally, the role of international financial assistance in stabilization was studied, noting that (i) a clear majority of hyperinflation countries used it, further improving their (ii) economic freedoms, and allowing themselves (iii) greater fiscal flexibility and (iv) more exchange rate stability.
Transportation Of Liquefied Natural Gas
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Author : United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Transportation Of Liquefied Natural Gas written by United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Liquefied natural gas categories.