Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Mr. Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-10
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
A Projection Model For Resource Rich And Dollarized Economy The Democratic Republic Of The Congo
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Author : Victor Musa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-06-21
A Projection Model For Resource Rich And Dollarized Economy The Democratic Republic Of The Congo written by Victor Musa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-21 with categories.
The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
G3mod A Multi Country Global Forecasting Model
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Author : Mr. Iaroslav Miller
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-12-13
G3mod A Multi Country Global Forecasting Model written by Mr. Iaroslav Miller and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-13 with categories.
This paper develops G3MOD, a semi-structural gap-trend model designed for frequent external sector forecasts crucial in macroeconomic forecasting. Focused on the G3 economies (US, Euro Area, and China) and the rest of the world, G3MOD leverages insights from central banks’ policy models, to consistently translate external forecasts such as the IMF’s World Economic Outlook into a Quarterly Projection Model format. The model offers flexible simulations and policy assessments and is structured around trade and financial linkages. G3MOD supports model-based forecasts and risk evaluations, helping central banks integrate external forecasts and scenarios into their own forecasts, thus generating timely macroeconomic projections. Its calibration ensures alignment with historical data, economic coherence, and robust predictive capability, and it has been validated against major global projection models. The complete set of codes, calibrated parameter values, and supporting programs are posted with this working paper.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-11-15
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-11-15 with categories.
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries
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Author : Valeriu Nalban
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-23
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries written by Valeriu Nalban and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-23 with categories.
Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies.
Ghana
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-20
Ghana written by International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-20 with categories.
This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year Bank of Ghana (BOG) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2019 and mid-2024 over a total of seven missions, three in-person and four virtual. The project has focused on upgrading and building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. BOG staff has made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset in providing analytical support to the policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the BOG internal deliberations and represents the key input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation, including in regular external communications. Remaining recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamline external communications.
A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga
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Author : Mr. Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-06-20
A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga written by Mr. Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-20 with categories.
This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of domestic output, core inflation and interest rates, as well as Tonga’s monetary policy transmission. It is then used to study three scenarios and assess their impact on the baseline. The first scenario involves shocks proxying for a bank failure. The second scenario introduces shocks that simulate the consequences of a natural disaster. Finally, the third scenario introduces shocks that represent a significant negative external shock on Tonga. These shocks were chosen to reflect the sensitivity of Tonga to adverse financial shocks, to their trading partners’ macroeconomic policies, and to extreme weather events.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment
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Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-05-04
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
A Quantitative Model For The Integrated Policy Framework written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
The Sex Starved Marriage
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Author : Michele Weiner-Davis
language : en
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Limited
Release Date : 2004
The Sex Starved Marriage written by Michele Weiner-Davis and has been published by Simon & Schuster Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Psychosexual disorders categories.
'Not tonight, darling, I've got a headache...' An estimated one in three couples suffer from problems associated with one partner having a higher libido than the other. Marriage therapist Michele Weiner Davis has written THE SEX-STARVED MARRIAGE to help couples come to terms with this problem. Weiner Davis shows you how to address pyschological factors like depression, poor body image and communication problems that affect sexual desire. With separate chapters for the spouse that's ready for action and the spouse that's ready for sleep, THE SEX-STARVED MARRIAGE will help you re-spark your passion and stop you fighting about sex. Weiner Davis is renowned for her straight-talking style and here she puts it to great use to let you know you're not alone in having marital sex problems. Bitterness or complacency about ho-hum sex can ruin a marriage, breaking the emotional tie of good sex.