Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications
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Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-11-15
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-11-15 with categories.
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries
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Author : Valeriu Nalban
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-23
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries written by Valeriu Nalban and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-23 with categories.
Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies.
Macroeconomic Research In Low Income Countries
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Author : Hites Ahir
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-24
Macroeconomic Research In Low Income Countries written by Hites Ahir and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Quarterly Projection Model For India
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Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-02-13
Quarterly Projection Model For India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-04-13
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
Evaluating The Net Benefits Of Macroprudential Policy
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Author : Mr.Nicolas Arregui
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-07-17
Evaluating The Net Benefits Of Macroprudential Policy written by Mr.Nicolas Arregui and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper proposes a simple, new, analytical framework for assessing the cost and benefits of macroprudential policies. It proposes a measure of net benefits in terms of parameters that can be estimated: the probability of crisis, the loss in output given crisis, policy effectiveness in bringing down both the probability and damage during crisis, and the output-cost of a policy decision. It discusses three types of policy leakages and identifies instruments that could best minimize the leakages. Some rules of thumb for policymakers are provided.
World Economic Outlook October 2013
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-08
World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Asset Purchase Programs In European Emerging Markets
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Author : Mr. Marco Arena
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-24
Asset Purchase Programs In European Emerging Markets written by Mr. Marco Arena and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary policy and keep a safe distance from the risk of fiscal dominance. As central banks in the region move towards monetary policy tightening, the tapering, ending, and unwinding of APPs must also be carefully considered. Clear and transparent communication is critical at each step of the process, from the inception to the closure of APPs, particularly when a large shock hits and triggers a major policy shift.
Adjustment In Africa
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Adjustment In Africa written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Political Science categories.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-02
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.