Acting Under Uncertainty
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Acting Under Uncertainty
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Author : George M. Von Furstenberg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014-01-15
Acting Under Uncertainty written by George M. Von Furstenberg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-15 with categories.
Acting Under Uncertainty
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Author : George M. von Furstenberg
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Acting Under Uncertainty written by George M. von Furstenberg and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty
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Author : Oliver Sauter
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2014-01-31
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty written by Oliver Sauter and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-31 with Political Science categories.
Oliver Sauter analyzes three aspects of monetary policy under uncertainty. First he shows that the terms risk and uncertainty are often wrongly used as synonyms despite their different meanings. The second aspect is the proper examination and incorporation of uncertainty into a monetary policy framework. The author undertakes systematization with a closer look at each identified form of uncertainty. Thirdly, he focuses on the quantification of uncertainty from two different perspectives, either from a market perspective or from a central bank perspective.
Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty From A Stochastic Programming Point Of View
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Author : Harald Held
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-05-30
Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty From A Stochastic Programming Point Of View written by Harald Held and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-30 with Mathematics categories.
Optimization problems are relevant in many areas of technical, industrial, and economic applications. At the same time, they pose challenging mathematical research problems in numerical analysis and optimization. Harald Held considers an elastic body subjected to uncertain internal and external forces. Since simply averaging the possible loadings will result in a structure that might not be robust for the individual loadings, he uses techniques from level set based shape optimization and two-stage stochastic programming. Taking advantage of the PDE’s linearity, he is able to compute solutions for an arbitrary number of scenarios without significantly increasing the computational effort. The author applies a gradient method using the shape derivative and the topological gradient to minimize, e.g., the compliance and shows that the obtained solutions strongly depend on the initial guess, in particular its topology. The stochastic programming perspective also allows incorporating risk measures into the model which might be a more appropriate objective in many practical applications.
Managing Water Under Uncertainty And Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols
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Author : UNESCO
language : en
Publisher: UNESCO
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Managing Water Under Uncertainty And Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols written by UNESCO and has been published by UNESCO this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Risk assessment categories.
Released every three years since March 2003, the United Nations World Water Development Report (WWDR), a flagship UN-Water report published by UNESCO, has become the voice of the United Nations system in terms of the state, use and management of the world's freshwater resources. The report is primarily targeted at national decision-makers and water resource managers, but is also aimed at educating and informing a broader audience, from governments to the private sector and civil society. It underlines the important roles water plays in all social, economic and environmental decisions, highlighting policy implications across various sectors, from local and municipal to regional and international levels. Similarly to the first two editions, this report includes a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of several key challenge areas, such as water for food, energy and human health, and governance challenges such as institutional reform, knowledge and capacity-building, and financing, each produced by individual UN agencies.
Understanding Uncertainty
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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-08-28
Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-08-28 with Mathematics categories.
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty Second Edition
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Author : Richard T. Froyen
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2019
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty Second Edition written by Richard T. Froyen and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Mathematical optimization categories.
This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk
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Author : Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk written by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2015-07-24
Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-24 with Computers categories.
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Ijcai 97
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Author : International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
language : en
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
Release Date : 1997
Ijcai 97 written by International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence and has been published by Morgan Kaufmann this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Artificial intelligence categories.