Adjusting To Policy Expectations In Climate Change Modeling
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Adjusting To Policy Expectations In Climate Change Modeling
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Adjusting To Policy Expectations In Climate Change Modeling written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Atmospheric circulation categories.
This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of 19 climate modellers to several questions and a discussion document circulated in 1995. We interpret the responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold about how the environmental policy process deals with scientific uncertainty over human-related global warming; the different scientific styles that exist in climate research; and the influence of organisations, institutions, and policy upon research agendas. We find evidence that scientists' perceptions of the policy process do play a role in shaping their scientific practices. In particular, many of our respondents expressed a preference for keeping discussion of the issue of flux adjustments within the climate modeling community, apparently fearing that climate contrarians would exploit the issue in the public domain. While this may be true, we point to the risk that such an approach may backfire. We also identify assumptions and cultural commitments lying at a deeper level which play at least as important a role as perceptions of the policy process in shaping scientific practices. This leads us to identify two groups of scientists, 'pragmatists' and 'purists, ' who have different implicit standards for model adequacy, and correspondingly are or are not willing to use flux adjustments.
Climate Change And Policy
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Author : Gabriele Gramelsberger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-03-30
Climate Change And Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-30 with Science categories.
The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project
Climate Policy From Rio To Kyoto
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Author : Siegfried Fred Singer
language : en
Publisher: Hoover Press
Release Date : 2000
Climate Policy From Rio To Kyoto written by Siegfried Fred Singer and has been published by Hoover Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Climatic changes categories.
A Critical Assessment Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
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Author : Mike Hulme
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2022-12-31
A Critical Assessment Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change written by Mike Hulme and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-31 with Business & Economics categories.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has become a hugely influential institution. It is the authoritative voice on the science on climate change, and an exemplar of an intergovernmental science-policy interface. This book introduces the IPCC as an institution, covering its origins, history, processes, participants, products, and influence. Discussing its internal workings and operating principles, it shows how IPCC assessments are produced and how consensus is reached between scientific and policy experts from different institutions, countries, and social groups. A variety of practices and discourses - epistemic, diplomatic, procedural, communicative - that make the institution function are critically assessed, allowing the reader to learn from its successes and failures. This volume is the go-to reference for researchers studying or active within the IPCC, as well as invaluable for students concerned with global environmental problems and climate governance. This title is also available as Open Access via Cambridge Core.
What The Future Holds
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Author : Richard N. Cooper
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2003
What The Future Holds written by Richard N. Cooper and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business & Economics categories.
This book considers how we might think intelligently about the future. Taking different methodological approaches, well-known specialists forecast likely future developments and trends in human life.
Problems Philosophy And Politics Of Climate Science
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Author : Guido Visconti
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-09-17
Problems Philosophy And Politics Of Climate Science written by Guido Visconti and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-17 with Science categories.
This book is a critical appraisal of the status of the so-called Climate Sciences (CS). These are contributed by many other basic sciences like physics, geology, chemistry and as such employ theoretical and experimental methods. In the last few decades most of the CS have been identified with the global warming problem and numerical models have been used as the main tool for their investigations. The produced predictions can only be partially tested against experimental data and may represent one of the reasons CS are drifting away from the route of the scientific method. On the other hand the study of climate faces many other interesting and mostly unsolved problems (think about ice ages) whose solution could clarify how the climatic system works. As for the global warming, while its existence is largely proved, scientifically it can be solved only with a large experimental effort carried out for a few decades. Problems can arise when not proved hypotheses are adopted as the basis for public policy without the recognition that they may be on shaky ground. The strong interactions of the Global Warming (GW) with the society create another huge problem of political nature for the CS. The book argues that the knowledge gained so far on the specific GW problem is enough for the relevant political decisions to be taken and that Climate Science should resume the study of the climate system with appropriate means and methods. The book introduces the most relevant concepts needed for the discussion in the text or in appropriate appendices and it is directed to the general public with upper undergraduate background. Each chapter closes with a debate between a climate scientist and a humanist to reflect the discussions between climate science and philosophy or climate scientists and society.
Computing The Climate
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Author : Steve M. Easterbrook
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2023-08-31
Computing The Climate written by Steve M. Easterbrook and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-31 with Computers categories.
Accurate climate models have existed since the 1800s. Learn how these models have developed - and why we should believe them.
Understanding Risks And Uncertainties In Energy And Climate Policy
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Author : Haris Doukas
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-12-10
Understanding Risks And Uncertainties In Energy And Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
Globalising The Climate
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Author : Stefan C Aykut
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2017-03-03
Globalising The Climate written by Stefan C Aykut and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Frequently presented as a historic last chance to set the world on a course to prevent catastrophic climate change, the 21st Conference of the Parties to the Climate convention (COP21) was a global summit of exceptional proportions. Bringing together negotiators, scientists, journalists and representatives of global civil society, it also constituted a privileged vantage point for the study of global environmental governance "in the making". This volume offers readers an original account of the current state of play in the field of global climate governance. Building upon a collaborative research project on COP21 carried out by a multidisciplinary team of twenty academics with recognised experience in the field of environmental governance, the book takes COP21 as an entry point to analyse ongoing transformations of global climate politics, and to scrutinise the impact of climate change on global debates more generally. The book has three key objectives: To analyse global climate governance through a combination of long-term analysis and on-sight observation; To identify and analyse the key spaces of participation in the global climate debate; To examine the "climatisation" of a series of crosscutting themes, including development, energy, security and migration. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars and policymakers of climate politics and governance, international relations and environmental studies.
Climate And Culture
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Author : Giuseppe Feola
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2019-10-03
Climate And Culture written by Giuseppe Feola and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Discusses how culture both facilitates and inhibits our ability to address, live with, and make sense of climate change.