Adversarial Risk Analysis
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Adversarial Risk Analysis
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Author : David L. Banks
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-06-30
Adversarial Risk Analysis written by David L. Banks and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Risk Analysis Ix
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Author : C. A. Brebbia
language : en
Publisher: WIT Press
Release Date : 2014-06-04
Risk Analysis Ix written by C. A. Brebbia and has been published by WIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-04 with Nature categories.
Containing papers presented at the 9th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation this book covers a series of important topics of current research interests and many practical applications. It is concerned with all aspects of risk management and hazard mitigation, associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards. The analysis and management of risk and the mitigation of hazards is of fundamental importance to planners and researchers around the world. We live in an increasingly complex society with the potential for disasters on a worldwide scale. Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, fires and others have always affected human societies. Man-made hazards, however, played a comparatively small role a few centuries ago until the risk of catastrophic events started to increase due to the rapid growth of new technologies. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic risks adds to the complexity of the problem. Topics covered include: Risk assessment; Risk management; Hazard prevention, management and control; Early warning systems; Risk mapping; Natural hazards; Disaster management; Vulnerability assessment; Health risk; Debris flow and flood hazards; Case studies; Climate change; Safety and security; Evacuation simulation and design; Political and economic vulnerability.
Improving Risk Analysis
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Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-02-03
Improving Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University
The Psychology Of Risk
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Author : Glynis M. Breakwell
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2014-09-15
The Psychology Of Risk written by Glynis M. Breakwell and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-15 with Psychology categories.
Since the first edition of The Psychology of Risk there have been enormous macro-economic and socio-political changes globally - the chaos in the world banking system and the financial crisis and recessions that it presaged; the Arab Spring and the revolutionary shifts in power in the Middle East with rippled consequences around the world; the development of ever-more sophisticated cyber-terrorism that can strike the private individual or the nation state with equal ease. Amidst these changes in the face of hazard, do the psychological models built to explain human reactions to risk still apply? Has the research over the last few years resulted in an improvement in our understanding of how people perceive and act in relation to risk? In this second edition Professor Dame Breakwell uses illustrations and current examples to address these questions and provide a totally up-to-the minute review of what is known about the psychology of risk.
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis
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Author : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-02-23
Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-02-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.
Ai Ml For Decision And Risk Analysis
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Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-07-05
Ai Ml For Decision And Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making. The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.
Adversarial Machine Learning
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Author : Aneesh Sreevallabh Chivukula
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-03-06
Adversarial Machine Learning written by Aneesh Sreevallabh Chivukula and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-06 with Computers categories.
A critical challenge in deep learning is the vulnerability of deep learning networks to security attacks from intelligent cyber adversaries. Even innocuous perturbations to the training data can be used to manipulate the behaviour of deep networks in unintended ways. In this book, we review the latest developments in adversarial attack technologies in computer vision; natural language processing; and cybersecurity with regard to multidimensional, textual and image data, sequence data, and temporal data. In turn, we assess the robustness properties of deep learning networks to produce a taxonomy of adversarial examples that characterises the security of learning systems using game theoretical adversarial deep learning algorithms. The state-of-the-art in adversarial perturbation-based privacy protection mechanisms is also reviewed. We propose new adversary types for game theoretical objectives in non-stationary computational learning environments. Proper quantification of the hypothesis set in the decision problems of our research leads to various functional problems, oracular problems, sampling tasks, and optimization problems. We also address the defence mechanisms currently available for deep learning models deployed in real-world environments. The learning theories used in these defence mechanisms concern data representations, feature manipulations, misclassifications costs, sensitivity landscapes, distributional robustness, and complexity classes of the adversarial deep learning algorithms and their applications. In closing, we propose future research directions in adversarial deep learning applications for resilient learning system design and review formalized learning assumptions concerning the attack surfaces and robustness characteristics of artificial intelligence applications so as to deconstruct the contemporary adversarial deep learning designs. Given its scope, the book will be of interest to Adversarial Machine Learning practitioners and Adversarial Artificial Intelligence researchers whose work involves the design and application of Adversarial Deep Learning.
Current Trends In Bayesian Methodology With Applications
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Author : Satyanshu K. Upadhyay
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-05-21
Current Trends In Bayesian Methodology With Applications written by Satyanshu K. Upadhyay and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics. Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on a Bayesian methodology. It gives an overview of the area, presents theoretical insights, and emphasizes applications through motivating examples. This book reflects the diversity of Bayesian analysis, from novel Bayesian methodology, such as nonignorable response and factor analysis, to state-of-the-art applications in economics, astrophysics, biomedicine, oceanography, and other areas. It guides readers in using Bayesian techniques for a range of statistical analyses.