Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Author : Mary A. Meyer
language : en
Publisher: SIAM
Release Date : 2001-01-01
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and has been published by SIAM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-01-01 with Mathematics categories.
Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Elicitation
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Author : Luis C. Dias
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-16
Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Risks And Decisions For Conservation And Environmental Management
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Author : Mark Burgman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-04-07
Risks And Decisions For Conservation And Environmental Management written by Mark Burgman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This book outlines how to conduct a complete environmental risk assessment. The first part documents the psychology and philosophy of risk perception and assessment, introducing a taxonomy of uncertainty and the importance of context. It provides a critical examination of the use and abuse of expert judgement and goes on to outline approaches to hazard identification and subjective ranking that account for uncertainty and context. The second part of the book describes technical tools that can assist risk assessments to be transparent and internally consistent. These include interval arithmetic, ecotoxicological methods, logic trees and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods have an established place in risk assessments in many disciplines and their strengths and weaknesses are explored. The last part of the book outlines some new approaches, including p-bounds and information-gap theory, and describes how quantitative and subjective assessments can be used to make transparent decisions.
Trusting Judgements
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Author : Mark A. Burgman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2016
Trusting Judgements written by Mark A. Burgman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Business & Economics categories.
Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.
Educational Research And Innovation Ai And The Future Of Skills Volume 2 Methods For Evaluating Ai Capabilities
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2023-11-16
Educational Research And Innovation Ai And The Future Of Skills Volume 2 Methods For Evaluating Ai Capabilities written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-16 with categories.
This volume describes the second phase of the project: exploring three different approaches to assessing AI.
Security Risk Models For Cyber Insurance
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Author : David Rios Insua
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-12-21
Security Risk Models For Cyber Insurance written by David Rios Insua and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-21 with Mathematics categories.
Tackling the cybersecurity challenge is a matter of survival for society at large. Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing in sophistication and magnitude—and in their destructive potential. New threats emerge regularly, the last few years having seen a ransomware boom and distributed denial-of-service attacks leveraging the Internet of Things. For organisations, the use of cybersecurity risk management is essential in order to manage these threats. Yet current frameworks have drawbacks which can lead to the suboptimal allocation of cybersecurity resources. Cyber insurance has been touted as part of the solution – based on the idea that insurers can incentivize companies to improve their cybersecurity by offering premium discounts – but cyber insurance levels remain limited. This is because companies have difficulty determining which cyber insurance products to purchase, and insurance companies struggle to accurately assess cyber risk and thus develop cyber insurance products. To deal with these challenges, this volume presents new models for cybersecurity risk management, partly based on the use of cyber insurance. It contains: A set of mathematical models for cybersecurity risk management, including (i) a model to assist companies in determining their optimal budget allocation between security products and cyber insurance and (ii) a model to assist insurers in designing cyber insurance products. The models use adversarial risk analysis to account for the behavior of threat actors (as well as the behavior of companies and insurers). To inform these models, we draw on psychological and behavioural economics studies of decision-making by individuals regarding cybersecurity and cyber insurance. We also draw on organizational decision-making studies involving cybersecurity and cyber insurance. Its theoretical and methodological findings will appeal to researchers across a wide range of cybersecurity-related disciplines including risk and decision analysis, analytics, technology management, actuarial sciences, behavioural sciences, and economics. The practical findings will help cybersecurity professionals and insurers enhance cybersecurity and cyber insurance, thus benefiting society as a whole. This book grew out of a two-year European Union-funded project under Horizons 2020, called CYBECO (Supporting Cyber Insurance from a Behavioral Choice Perspective).
The Digital Supply Chain
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Author : Bart L. MacCarthy
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2022-06-09
The Digital Supply Chain written by Bart L. MacCarthy and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-09 with Transportation categories.
The Digital Supply Chain is a thorough investigation of the underpinning technologies, systems, platforms and models that enable the design, management, and control of digitally connected supply chains. The book examines the origin, emergence and building blocks of the Digital Supply Chain, showing how and where the virtual and physical supply chain worlds interact. It reviews the enabling technologies that underpin digitally controlled supply chains and examines how the discipline of supply chain management is affected by enhanced digital connectivity, discussing purchasing and procurement, supply chain traceability, performance management, and supply chain cyber security. The book provides a rich set of cases on current digital practices and challenges across a range of industrial and business sectors including the retail, textiles and clothing, the automotive industry, food, shipping and international logistics, and SMEs. It concludes with research frontiers, discussing network science for supply chain analysis, challenges in Blockchain applications and in digital supply chain surveillance, as well as the need to re-conceptualize supply chain strategies for digitally transformed supply chains.
Transforming Conservation
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Author : William J. Sutherland
language : en
Publisher: Open Book Publishers
Release Date : 2022-12-07
Transforming Conservation written by William J. Sutherland and has been published by Open Book Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-07 with Nature categories.
There are severe problems with the decision-making processes currently widely used, leading to ineffective use of evidence, faulty decisions, wasting of resources and the erosion of public and political support. In this book an international team of experts provide solutions. The transformation suggested includes rethinking how evidence is assessed, combined, communicated and used in decision-making; using effective methods when asking experts to make judgements (i.e. avoiding just asking an expert or a group of experts!); using a structured process for making decisions that incorporate the evidence and having effective processes for learning from actions. In each case, the specific problem with decision making is described with a range of practical solutions. Adopting this approach to decision-making requires societal change so detailed suggestions are made for transforming organisations, governments, businesses, funders and philanthropists. The practical suggestions include twelve downloadable checklists. The vision of the authors is to transform conservation so it is more effective, more cost-efficient, learns from practice and is more attractive to funders. However, the lessons of this important book go well beyond conservation to decision-makers in any field.
Risk Analysis And Decision Processes
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Author : H.C. Kunreuther
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Risk Analysis And Decision Processes written by H.C. Kunreuther and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
For old and new studies in decision making and risk analysis, this book should stand at tlle watershed. Studies of conflict resolution and public policy will surely now have to take account of the model investigation provided by the IIASA team, and many things will not be the same again. This is a report of inquiries into the siting of liquefied energy gas (LEG) facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The risks of transporting this highly combustible stuff, and the economic benefits of being able to bring a natural energy source from one side of the globe to the other, holding it, and piping it out as needed, make LEG a model case for studying the public response to dangerous technology. The dangers of LEG are differ ent from those of nuclear power, for instance, where the response too often becomes entangled with the fear of nuclear war. The dangers of LEG include unco~trollable explosions, rather than insidious contami nation. But the degree of dangerousness is very much of the same order as that of nuclear power, and is at least as difficult to assess. In four different countries the constitutional procedures involved in obtaining approval of nuclear or LEG facilities are on record. The four case histories here are a model for comparative study of conflict resolu tion. The period over which the negotiations developed is much the same.