An Economy Wide Model Of Papua New Guinea
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An Economy Wide Model Of Papua New Guinea
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991
An Economy Wide Model Of Papua New Guinea written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Papua New Guinea categories.
Effects Of Covid 19 On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis
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Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-12-04
Effects Of Covid 19 On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-04 with Political Science categories.
Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.
Synopsis Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-08-22
Synopsis Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-22 with Political Science categories.
Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-07-07
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-07 with Political Science categories.
Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.
The General Equilibrium Model Of Papua New Guinea
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Author : Berhanu Woldekidan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
The General Equilibrium Model Of Papua New Guinea written by Berhanu Woldekidan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Equilibrium (Economics) categories.
General equilibrium model of Papua New Guinea designed to accommodate economic analyses of the consequences of changes in both domestic and international economic conditions. Designed for government and business use. Includes references. The author is a research associate with the National Centre for Development Studies at the Australian National University.
Effects Of Covid 19 And Other Shocks On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis
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Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Effects Of Covid 19 And Other Shocks On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Political Science categories.
Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Aid As A Booming Sector
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Author : Ethan Weisman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Aid As A Booming Sector written by Ethan Weisman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Economic assistance categories.
Islands Australia Working paper no. 90/13 of the National Centre for Development Studies. An analysis of the effect of the aid boom on the Papua New Guinean economy. Includes diagrams, tables and a list of the centre's publications relating to Papua New Guinea and the Pacific.
Papua New Guinea Critical Development Constraints
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2012-04-01
Papua New Guinea Critical Development Constraints written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Papua New Guinea's economic growth has outpaced the majority of economies in Southeast Asia and the Pacific since 2007. Its development challenges, however, remain daunting, and it lags behind other countries in the region in terms of per capita income and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. This raises the question of how the country can make its economic growth high, sustained, inclusive, and broad-based to more effectively improve its population's welfare. This report identifies the critical constraints to these objectives and discusses policy options to help overcome such constraints.
Development And Dependency
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Author : Azeem Amarshi
language : en
Publisher: Melbourne ; New York : Oxford University Press
Release Date : 1979
Development And Dependency written by Azeem Amarshi and has been published by Melbourne ; New York : Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Business & Economics categories.
The political economy of Papua New Guinea.
Agri Food Trade Trends In Papua New Guinea Reflections On Covid 19 Policies And Dietary Change
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Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-09-04
Agri Food Trade Trends In Papua New Guinea Reflections On Covid 19 Policies And Dietary Change written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-04 with Political Science categories.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.