An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Heuristic Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Heuristic Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Wendell Phillips Simpson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Heuristic Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Wendell Phillips Simpson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Economics categories.
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Government Reports Announcements Index
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Government Reports Announcements Index written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Science categories.
Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Paul R. Garvey
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2000-01-03
Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-01-03 with Mathematics categories.
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case studies, results, observations, and interpretations that clarify the challenges in cost risk analysis. It includes references, equations, and illustrations, provides theoretical and applied exercises, and uses examples and case discussions derived from systems engineering projects to describe key concepts.
The Journal Of Cost Analysis Management
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
The Journal Of Cost Analysis Management written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Cost accounting categories.
Principles Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-01-30
Principles Of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-30 with Technology & Engineering categories.
In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
Microgrids
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Author : Amjad Anvari-Moghaddam
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2021-05-21
Microgrids written by Amjad Anvari-Moghaddam and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-21 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Microgrids are a growing segment of the energy industry, representing a paradigm shift from centralized structures toward more localized, autonomous, dynamic, and bi-directional energy networks, especially in cities and communities. The ability to isolate from the larger grid makes microgrids resilient, while their capability of forming scalable energy clusters permits the delivery of services that make the grid more sustainable and competitive. Through an optimal design and management process, microgrids could also provide efficient, low-cost, clean energy and help to improve the operation and stability of regional energy systems. This book covers these promising and dynamic areas of research and development and gathers contributions on different aspects of microgrids in an aim to impart higher degrees of sustainability and resilience to energy systems.
Primer On Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-01-18
Primer On Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-18 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner, tackling the question, "What is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of many risk dialects into serviceable definitions, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk management and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all disciplines. New in this edition is an expanded risk management emphasis that includes an overview chapter on enterprise risk management and a chapter on decision making under uncertainty designed to help decision makers use the results of risk analysis in practical ways to improve decisions and their outcomes. This book will empower you to enter the world of risk management in your own domain of expertise by providing you with practical, insightful, useful and adaptable knowledge of risk analysis science including risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Features: Answers the fundamental question, "What is Risk Analysis?" Presents the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Responds to the continuing evolution of risk science and addresses the language of risk as it continues to evolve Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Includes a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty provides practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis This book is suitable for executives, professionals and students who seek a fundamental understanding of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. A more detailed examination of this topic, suitable for practitioners from any discipline as well as students and professionals who aspire to become experts in the practice of risk analysis science, is found in Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-47820-6.
Optimal Investment Decision Making For Highway Transportation Asset Management Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Zongzhi Li
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Optimal Investment Decision Making For Highway Transportation Asset Management Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Zongzhi Li and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Highway departments categories.
44th Congress Of The International Astronautical Federation
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
44th Congress Of The International Astronautical Federation written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Astronautics categories.
Handbook Of Military And Defense Operations Research
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Author : Natalie M. Scala
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-02-10
Handbook Of Military And Defense Operations Research written by Natalie M. Scala and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Operations research (OR) is a core discipline in military and defense management. Coming to the forefront initially during World War II, OR provided critical contributions to logistics, supply chains, and strategic simulation, while enabling superior decision-making for Allied forces. OR has grown to include analytics and many applications, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and big data, and is the cornerstone of management science in manufacturing, marketing, telecommunications, and many other fields. The Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research presents the voices leading OR and analytics to new heights in security through research, practical applications, case studies, and lessons learned in the field. Features Applies the experiences of educators and practitioners working in the field Employs the latest technology developments in case studies and applications Identifies best practices unique to the military, security, and national defense problem space Highlights similarities and dichotomies between analyses and trends that are unique to military, security, and defense problems