Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Paul R. Garvey
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-01-06
Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-06 with Mathematics categories.
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Paul R. Garvey
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Electronic books categories.
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof
An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Heuristic Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Wendell Phillips Simpson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Heuristic Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Wendell Phillips Simpson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Economics categories.
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis
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Author : Lionel A. Galway
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis written by Lionel A. Galway and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Ralph E. Thomas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
Uncertainty Analysis written by Ralph E. Thomas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Probabilities categories.
Cost Analysis And Estimating
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Author : Willis R., Jr. Greer
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Cost Analysis And Estimating written by Willis R., Jr. Greer and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES), provides such a forum. Presen tations will focus on new and improved tools and techniques of cost analysis. This volume is the second in a series. The first was produced in conjunction with the 1989 National Meeting of ICA/NES in Washington, D.C. The articles in this volume, all refereed, were selected from about 100 submitted for presen tation at the Los Angeles meeting.
Impossible Certainty
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2006
Impossible Certainty written by and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with History categories.
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Cost Estimation
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Author : Gregory K. Mislick
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-04-27
Cost Estimation written by Gregory K. Mislick and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Presents an accessible approach to the cost estimation tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support analytical and cost decisions Written with an easy-to-understand approach, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools provides comprehensive coverage of the quantitative techniques needed by professional cost estimators and for those wanting to learn about this vibrant career field. Featuring the underlying mathematical and analytical principles of cost estimation, the book focuses on the tools and methods used to predict the research and development, production, and operating and support costs for successful cost estimation in industrial, business, and manufacturing processes. The book begins with a detailed historical perspective and key terms of the cost estimating field in order to develop the necessary background prior to implementing the presented quantitative methods. The book proceeds to fundamental cost estimation methods utilized in the field of cost estimation, including working with inflation indices, regression analysis, learning curves, analogies, cost factors, and wrap rates. With a step-by-step introduction to the practicality of cost estimation and the available resources for obtaining relevant data, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools also features: Various cost estimating tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support business decisions Multiple questions at the end of each chapter to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the discussed methods and techniques An overview of the software used in cost estimation, as well as an introduction to the application of risk and uncertainty analysis A Foreword from Dr. Douglas A. Brook, a professor in the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School, who spent many years working in the Department of Defense acquisition environment Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools is an excellent reference for academics and practitioners in decision science, operations research, operations management, business, and systems and industrial engineering, as well as a useful guide in support of professional cost estimation training and certification courses for practitioners. The book is also appropriate for graduate-level courses in operations research, operations management, engineering economics, and manufacturing and/or production processes.
Uncertainty
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Author : Millett Granger Morgan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990
Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.
Strategic Cost Fundamentals
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Author : Robert Creese
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-06-01
Strategic Cost Fundamentals written by Robert Creese and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book is designed to introduce designers, engineers, technologists, estimators, project managers, and financial analysts as well as students in engineering and business to strategic cost tools for project cost evaluations. The three main sections are as follows. (1) Cost Relationships, Financial Statements, and Performance Measures—This section describes the relationships between cash flows and profits; the relationships between financial statements and the Purcell Diagram; and the issues of cost estimating, time-based breakeven analysis and time-based earned schedule. (2) Tools for Economic Evaluations—This section considers the basic mathematical relations used behind the economic equations and factors; discrete and continuous interest; depreciation terms and methods; and the Present Value of Principal Approach for evaluating loans. (3) Methods for Project Evaluation and Risk Analysis—This section considers payback periods, present worth analysis, return on investment, internal rate of return, benefit/cost ratios and positive-negative project balances; risk techniques of sensitivity analysis, optimistic-pessimistic analysis, discrete probability examples, and continuous probability models using the normal and triangular distributions.