Are Currency Crises Predictable

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Are Currency Crises Predictable

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Author : Mr.Ilan Goldfajn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-12-01

Are Currency Crises Predictable written by Mr.Ilan Goldfajn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.

Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test

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Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-11-01

Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.

Are Currency Crises Predictable

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Author : Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998

Are Currency Crises Predictable written by Andrew Berg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Currency question categories.

Currency Crises

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Author : Paul Krugman
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-12-01

Currency Crises written by Paul Krugman and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

There is no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most would agree that they all involve one key element: investors fleeing a currency en masse out of fear that it might be devalued, in turn fueling the very devaluation they anticipated. Although such crises—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the speculations on European currencies in the early 1990s, and the ensuing Mexican, South American, and Asian crises—have played a central role in world affairs and continue to occur at an alarming rate, many questions about their causes and effects remain to be answered. In this wide-ranging volume, some of the best minds in economics focus on the historical and theoretical aspects of currency crises to investigate three fundamental issues: What drives currency crises? How should government behavior be modeled? And what are the actual consequences to the real economy? Reflecting the latest thinking on the subject, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom.

Information Dissemination In Currency Crises

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Author : Christina Evelies Metz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Information Dissemination In Currency Crises written by Christina Evelies Metz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

As the complexity of financial markets keeps growing, so does the need to understand the decision-making and the coordination of the exsuing actions in the marketplace. In particular, the disclosure of information to market participants and its impact on the market outcome mertis attention. This study analyses the role of private and public information in currency crises. Calls for increased dissemination of economic and policy-related information by central banks notwithstanding, the study shows that transparency is not generally conductive to preventing speculative attacks in fixed exchange-rate regimes. Rather, the role of private and public information in the market-place depencs critically on the prevailing market sentiment. The study also highlights the import of market transparency design in an environment that allows for herding and market leadership of individual speculators.

Perspectiveson The Recent Currency Crisis Literature

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Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-09-01

Perspectiveson The Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Financial Crises

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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-19

Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.

The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Global Financial Crises And Reforms

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Author : B. N. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2000-12-14

Global Financial Crises And Reforms written by B. N. Ghosh and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.

This is an innovative collection of papers written by a panel of highly respected academics and financial experts. Whilst providing an insight into the phenomenology of the financial crises of the 1990s in Asia and Latin America, the book also explores possibilities for their solution.

Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance And Debt Crises

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Author : Jerome L. Stein
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2006-04-06

Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance And Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both the return on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions. * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis? * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis? * What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate? The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.

Asean In An Interdependent World

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Author : Muzafar Shah Habibullah
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-11-01

Asean In An Interdependent World written by Muzafar Shah Habibullah and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-01 with Social Science categories.

This title was first published in 2000. This volume contains nine selected applied economic papers presented during the 1999 Faculty of Economics and Management Seminar in Melaka. The articles included focus the studies on trade and finance in Malaysia and other ASEAN member countries.