Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test

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Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test

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Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-11-01

Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.

Are Currency Crises Predictable

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Author : Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998

Are Currency Crises Predictable written by Andrew Berg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Currency question categories.

Imf Staff Papers Volume 46 No 2

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-01-01

Imf Staff Papers Volume 46 No 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

Exits From Pegged Regimes

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Author : Ms.Inci Ötker
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-07-01

Exits From Pegged Regimes written by Ms.Inci Ötker and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments within the existing regime. Distinguishing episodes characterized by "exchange market pressure" from orderly exits, the estimated probabilities of alternative exit episodes indicate that crises are preceded by a deterioration of economic conditions. In contrast, orderly exits to less flexible regimes are preceded by long regime duration, a decline in financial liabilities of the banking system, and an increase in official reserves. Exits to more flexible regimes are associated with both emerging market and other developing countries, and an increase in trade openness and government borrowing from banks. The results are robust to alternative sensitivity analyses and have reasonable predictive performance, confirming that economic and financial conditions and regime duration play important roles in determining the future course of exchange rate regimes.

The Asia Crisis

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Author : Mr.Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-10-01

The Asia Crisis written by Mr.Andrew Berg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, what were the policy responses, and what have been the outcomes? The paper takes the view that none of these questions can be understood without appreciating the fundamental vulnerabilities that left authorities without effective tools to counter sudden capital outflows. The pattern of output decline suggests that these vulnerabilities, particularly weaknesses in domestic financial systems, played a larger role than tight monetary policy in determining outcomes.

Regional And Global Capital Flows

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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2009-02-15

Regional And Global Capital Flows written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.

The volume of capital flows between industrial and developing countries has grown dramatically in the past decade and has become a major issue in a world that is increasingly "globalized." Here Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, two leading experts on this topic, have assembled a group of scholars who address different types of capital flows—bank lending, bonds, direct foreign investment—and the implications they hold for economic performance. With its particular focus on the Asian financial crises, this work presents a new model for policy makers everywhere in thinking about the role of private capital flows.

Reforming The International Monetary And Financial System

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Author : Mr.Alexander K. Swoboda
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-12-18

Reforming The International Monetary And Financial System written by Mr.Alexander K. Swoboda and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-12-18 with Business & Economics categories.

This volume examines the implications of greater financial integration on the international monetary and financial system, and how it should be reformed. Various experts consider the most disruptive manifestations of instability and the appropriate policy responses, including exchange rate volatility and misalignments; unstable capital flows to emerging market economies; abrupt capital flow reversals; and private sector involvement in crisis resolution. The IMF’s role in crisis prevention and resolution is also examined.

International Financial Contagion

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Author : Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17

International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.

No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.

Prevention And Crisis Management

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Author : Steven Rosefielde
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2013

Prevention And Crisis Management written by Steven Rosefielde and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.

This book highlights the future threat to Asia from a broader perspective that takes account of the Japanese and Asian financial crises during the 1990s as well as the global crisis of 2008. It reveals that Asian crises take many diverse forms, and that the solutions devised to date have only been locally and not universally effective. Policymakers are accordingly advised to always plan for the element of surprise.

Financial Crises

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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-19

Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.

The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.