Bayesian Analysis Of Time Series
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Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models
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Author : Mike West
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-05-02
Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models written by Mike West and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-02 with Mathematics categories.
This text is concerned with Bayesian learning, inference and forecasting in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models and their uses in forecasting and time series analysis. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting and time - ries analysis have been developed extensively during the last thirty years. Thisdevelopmenthasinvolvedthoroughinvestigationofmathematicaland statistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with applications in a variety of areas in commercial, industrial, scienti?c, and socio-economic ?elds. Much of the technical - velopment has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners and applied researchers. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, presented and illustrated here. In writing and revising this book, our primary goals have been to present a reasonably comprehensive view of Bayesian ideas and methods in m- elling and forecasting, particularly to provide a solid reference source for advanced university students and research workers.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian t
Smoothness Priors Analysis Of Time Series
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Author : Genshiro Kitagawa
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Smoothness Priors Analysis Of Time Series written by Genshiro Kitagawa and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.
Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition
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Author : Andrew Gelman
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2013-11-01
Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-01 with Mathematics categories.
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling and analysis, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and emerging topics at research frontiers. The book presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. The authors also explore the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. They illustrate the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, and finance. Data sets, R and MATLAB® code, and other material are available on the authors’ websites. Along with core models and methods, this text offers sophisticated tools for analyzing challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas.
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods For Empirical Macroeconomics
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Author : Gary Koop
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2010
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods For Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
A First Course In Bayesian Statistical Methods
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Author : Peter D. Hoff
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-06-02
A First Course In Bayesian Statistical Methods written by Peter D. Hoff and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-02 with Mathematics categories.
A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.
Bayesian Analysis Of Time Series
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Author : Lyle D. Broemeling
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-04-16
Bayesian Analysis Of Time Series written by Lyle D. Broemeling and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-16 with Mathematics categories.
In many branches of science relevant observations are taken sequentially over time. Bayesian Analysis of Time Series discusses how to use models that explain the probabilistic characteristics of these time series and then utilizes the Bayesian approach to make inferences about their parameters. This is done by taking the prior information and via Bayes theorem implementing Bayesian inferences of estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction. The methods are demonstrated using both R and WinBUGS. The R package is primarily used to generate observations from a given time series model, while the WinBUGS packages allows one to perform a posterior analysis that provides a way to determine the characteristic of the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. Features Presents a comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian analysis of time series. Gives many examples over a wide variety of fields including biology, agriculture, business, economics, sociology, and astronomy. Contains numerous exercises at the end of each chapter many of which use R and WinBUGS. Can be used in graduate courses in statistics and biostatistics, but is also appropriate for researchers, practitioners and consulting statisticians. About the author Lyle D. Broemeling, Ph.D., is Director of Broemeling and Associates Inc., and is a consulting biostatistician. He has been involved with academic health science centers for about 20 years and has taught and been a consultant at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Texas School of Public Health. His main interest is in developing Bayesian methods for use in medical and biological problems and in authoring textbooks in statistics. His previous books for Chapman & Hall/CRC include Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine, and Bayesian Methods for Agreement.
Macroeconometrics And Time Series Analysis
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Author : Steven Durlauf
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-04-30
Macroeconometrics And Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Statistical Decision Theory And Bayesian Analysis
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Author : James O. Berger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 1985-08-21
Statistical Decision Theory And Bayesian Analysis written by James O. Berger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985-08-21 with Business & Economics categories.
"The outstanding strengths of the book are its topic coverage, references, exposition, examples and problem sets... This book is an excellent addition to any mathematical statistician's library." -Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.