Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models
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Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models
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Author : Mike West
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models written by Mike West and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Mathematics categories.
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Dynamic Linear Models With R
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Author : Giovanni Petris
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2009-06-02
Dynamic Linear Models With R written by Giovanni Petris and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-02 with Mathematics categories.
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Operationalizing Dynamic Pricing Models
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Author : Steffen Christ
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-04-02
Operationalizing Dynamic Pricing Models written by Steffen Christ and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Steffen Christ shows how theoretic optimization models can be operationalized by employing self-learning strategies to construct relevant input variables, such as latent demand and customer price sensitivity.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian t
Bayesian Inference In Dynamic Econometric Models
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Author : Luc Bauwens
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2000-01-06
Bayesian Inference In Dynamic Econometric Models written by Luc Bauwens and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-01-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This book contains an up-to-date coverage of the last twenty years advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of Bayesian inference for linear regression models. It thus covers a broad range of rather recent models for economic time series, such as non linear models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic regressions, and cointegrated vector autoregressive models. It contains also an extensive chapter on unit root inference from the Bayesian viewpoint. Several examples illustrate the methods.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling and analysis, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and emerging topics at research frontiers. The book presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. The authors also explore the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. They illustrate the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, and finance. Data sets, R and MATLAB® code, and other material are available on the authors’ websites. Along with core models and methods, this text offers sophisticated tools for analyzing challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas.
Bayesian Inference Of State Space Models
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Author : Kostas Triantafyllopoulos
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2022-11-13
Bayesian Inference Of State Space Models written by Kostas Triantafyllopoulos and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-13 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.
Probabilistic Forecasting And Bayesian Data Assimilation
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Author : Sebastian Reich
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2015-05-14
Probabilistic Forecasting And Bayesian Data Assimilation written by Sebastian Reich and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-14 with Computers categories.
This book covers key ideas and concepts. It is an ideal introduction for graduate students in any field where Bayesian data assimilation is applied.
Forecasting Structural Time Series Models And The Kalman Filter
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Author : Andrew C. Harvey
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990
Forecasting Structural Time Series Models And The Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Time Series And Dynamic Models
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Author : Christian Gourieroux
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1997
Time Series And Dynamic Models written by Christian Gourieroux and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
In this book Christian Gourieroux and Alain Monfort provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of modern time series econometrics. They have succeeded in synthesising in an organised and integrated way a broad and diverse literature. While the book does not assume a deep knowledge of economics, one of its most attractive features is the close attention it pays to economic models and phenomena throughout. The coverage represents a major reference tool for graduate students, researchers and applied economists. The book is divided into four sections. Section one gives a detailed treatment of classical seasonal adjustment or smoothing methods. Section two provides a thorough coverage of various mathematical tools. Section three is the heart of the book, and is devoted to a range of important topics including causality, exogeneity shocks, multipliers, cointegration and fractionally integrated models. The final section describes the main contribution of filtering and smoothing theory to time series econometric problems.