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Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting

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Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting

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Author : Taylor & Francis Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-08-27

Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting written by Taylor & Francis Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-27 with categories.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting

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Author : John Bryant
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-06-27

Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting written by John Bryant and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-27 with Mathematics categories.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Demographic Forecasting

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Author : Federico Girosi
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2018-06-05

Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-05 with Social Science categories.

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Developments In Demographic Forecasting

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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-28

Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-28 with Social Science categories.

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Bayesian Analysis For Population Ecology

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Author : Ruth King
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2009-10-30

Bayesian Analysis For Population Ecology written by Ruth King and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-10-30 with Mathematics categories.

Emphasizing model choice and model averaging, this book presents up-to-date Bayesian methods for analyzing complex ecological data. It provides a basic introduction to Bayesian methods that assumes no prior knowledge. The book includes detailed descriptions of methods that deal with covariate data and covers techniques at the forefront of research, such as model discrimination and model averaging. Leaders in the statistical ecology field, the authors apply the theory to a wide range of actual case studies and illustrate the methods using WinBUGS and R. The computer programs and full details of the data sets are available on the book's website.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting

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Author : John Bryant
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-06-27

Bayesian Modeling Of Spatio Temporal Data With R

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Author : Sujit Sahu
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-02-23

Bayesian Modeling Of Spatio Temporal Data With R written by Sujit Sahu and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-23 with Mathematics categories.

Applied sciences, both physical and social, such as atmospheric, biological, climate, demographic, economic, ecological, environmental, oceanic and political, routinely gather large volumes of spatial and spatio-temporal data in order to make wide ranging inference and prediction. Ideally such inferential tasks should be approached through modelling, which aids in estimation of uncertainties in all conclusions drawn from such data. Unified Bayesian modelling, implemented through user friendly software packages, provides a crucial key to unlocking the full power of these methods for solving challenging practical problems. Key features of the book: • Accessible detailed discussion of a majority of all aspects of Bayesian methods and computations with worked examples, numerical illustrations and exercises • A spatial statistics jargon buster chapter that enables the reader to build up a vocabulary without getting clouded in modeling and technicalities • Computation and modeling illustrations are provided with the help of the dedicated R package bmstdr, allowing the reader to use well-known packages and platforms, such as rstan, INLA, spBayes, spTimer, spTDyn, CARBayes, CARBayesST, etc • Included are R code notes detailing the algorithms used to produce all the tables and figures, with data and code available via an online supplement • Two dedicated chapters discuss practical examples of spatio-temporal modeling of point referenced and areal unit data • Throughout, the emphasis has been on validating models by splitting data into test and training sets following on the philosophy of machine learning and data science This book is designed to make spatio-temporal modeling and analysis accessible and understandable to a wide audience of students and researchers, from mathematicians and statisticians to practitioners in the applied sciences. It presents most of the modeling with the help of R commands written in a purposefully developed R package to facilitate spatio-temporal modeling. It does not compromise on rigour, as it presents the underlying theories of Bayesian inference and computation in standalone chapters, which would be appeal those interested in the theoretical details. By avoiding hard core mathematics and calculus, this book aims to be a bridge that removes the statistical knowledge gap from among the applied scientists.

Bayesian Data Analysis

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Author : Andrew Gelman
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2013-11-27

Bayesian Data Analysis written by Andrew Gelman and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-27 with Mathematics categories.

Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian AnalysisNow in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied

Bayesian Methods For Statistical Analysis

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Author : Borek Puza
language : en
Publisher: ANU Press
Release Date : 2015-10-01

Bayesian Methods For Statistical Analysis written by Borek Puza and has been published by ANU Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-01 with Mathematics categories.

Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis is a book on statistical methods for analysing a wide variety of data. The book consists of 12 chapters, starting with basic concepts and covering numerous topics, including Bayesian estimation, decision theory, prediction, hypothesis testing, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, finite population inference, biased sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. The book contains many exercises, all with worked solutions, including complete computer code. It is suitable for self-study or a semester-long course, with three hours of lectures and one tutorial per week for 13 weeks.

Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting

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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-03-28

Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Social Science categories.

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting

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