Bayesian Reasoning In Data Analysis

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Bayesian Reasoning In Data Analysis

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Author : Giulio D'Agostini
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2003

Bayesian Reasoning In Data Analysis written by Giulio D'Agostini and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Mathematics categories.

This book provides a multi-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning (as opposed to OC conventional statisticsOCO) and its applications to data analysis. The basic ideas of this OC newOCO approach to the quantification of uncertainty are presented using examples from research and everyday life. Applications covered include: parametric inference; combination of results; treatment of uncertainty due to systematic errors and background; comparison of hypotheses; unfolding of experimental distributions; upper/lower bounds in frontier-type measurements. Approximate methods for routine use are derived and are shown often to coincide OCo under well-defined assumptions! OCo with OC standardOCO methods, which can therefore be seen as special cases of the more general Bayesian methods. In dealing with uncertainty in measurements, modern metrological ideas are utilized, including the ISO classification of uncertainty into type A and type B. These are shown to fit well into the Bayesian framework.

Data Analysis In Forensic Science

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Author : Franco Taroni
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2010-03-19

Data Analysis In Forensic Science written by Franco Taroni and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-19 with Mathematics categories.

This is the first text to examine the use of statistical methods in forensic science and bayesian statistics in combination. The book is split into two parts: Part One concentrates on the philosophies of statistical inference. Chapter One examines the differences between the frequentist, the likelihood and the Bayesian perspectives, before Chapter Two explores the Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective further, and looks at the benefits it carries. Part Two then introduces the reader to the practical aspects involved: the application, interpretation, summary and presentation of data analyses are all examined from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. A wide range of statistical methods, essential in the analysis of forensic scientific data is explored. These include the comparison of allele proportions in populations, the comparison of means, the choice of sampling size, and the discrimination of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Throughout this practical appraisal there are a wide variety of examples taken from the routine work of forensic scientists. These applications are demonstrated in the ever-more popular R language. The reader is taken through these applied examples in a step-by-step approach, discussing the methods at each stage.

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis

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Author : John Kruschke
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-11-11

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis written by John Kruschke and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-11 with Mathematics categories.

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes' rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. - Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling - Examples with R programming language and JAGS software - Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis) - Coverage of experiment planning - R and JAGS computer programming code on website - Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment - Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs

Bayesian Logical Data Analysis For The Physical Sciences

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Author : Phil Gregory
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-04-14

Bayesian Logical Data Analysis For The Physical Sciences written by Phil Gregory and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-14 with Mathematics categories.

Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.

Bayesian Data Analysis

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Author : Andrew Gelman
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2013-11-27

Bayesian Data Analysis written by Andrew Gelman and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-27 with Mathematics categories.

Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian AnalysisNow in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied

Bayes Factors For Forensic Decision Analyses With R

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Author : Silvia Bozza
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-10-31

Bayes Factors For Forensic Decision Analyses With R written by Silvia Bozza and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-31 with Mathematics categories.

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: Probabilistic Inference - Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. Decision Making - Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. Operational Relevance - Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes. This book is Open Access.

Social Inquiry And Bayesian Inference

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Author : Tasha Fairfield
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2022-08-04

Social Inquiry And Bayesian Inference written by Tasha Fairfield and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-04 with Political Science categories.

Fairfield and Charman provide a modern, rigorous and intuitive methodology for case-study research to help social scientists and analysts make better inferences from qualitative evidence. The book develops concrete guidelines for conducting inference to best explanation given incomplete information; no previous exposure to Bayesian analysis or specialized mathematical skills are needed. Topics covered include constructing rival hypotheses that are neither too simple nor overly complex, assessing the inferential weight of evidence, counteracting cognitive biases, selecting cases, and iterating between theory development, data collection, and analysis. Extensive worked examples apply Bayesian guidelines, showcasing both exemplars of intuitive Bayesian reasoning and departures from Bayesian principles in published case studies drawn from process-tracing, comparative, and multimethod research. Beyond improving inference and analytic transparency, an overarching goal of this book is to revalue qualitative research and place it on more equal footing with respect to quantitative and experimental traditions by illustrating that Bayesianism provides a universally applicable inferential framework.

Mathematical Underpinnings Of Analytics

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Author : Peter Grindrod
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2014-11-27

Mathematical Underpinnings Of Analytics written by Peter Grindrod and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-27 with Mathematics categories.

Analytics is the application of mathematical and statistical concepts to large data sets so as to distil insights that offer the owner some options for action and competitive advantage or value. This makes it the most desirable and valuable part of big data science. Driven by the increased data capture from digital platforms, commercial fields are becoming data rich and analytics is growing in many sectors. This book presents analytics within a framework of mathematical theory and concepts building upon firm theory and foundations of probability theory, graphs and networks, random matrices, linear algebra, optimization, forecasting, discrete dynamical systems, and more. Following on from the theoretical considerations, applications are given to data from commercially relevant interests: supermarket baskets; loyalty cards; mobile phone call records; smart meters; 'omic' data; sales promotions; social media; and microblogging. Each chapter tackles a topic in analytics: social networks and digital marketing; forecasting; clustering and segmentation; inverse problems; Markov models of behavioural changes; multiple hypothesis testing and decision-making; and so on. Chapters start with background mathematical theory explained with a strong narrative and then give way to practical considerations and then to exemplar applications. Exercises (and solutions), external data resources, and suggestions for project work are given. The book includes an appendix giving a crash course in Bayesian reasoning, for both ease and completeness.

The Data Science Design Manual

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Author : Steven S. Skiena
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-07-01

The Data Science Design Manual written by Steven S. Skiena and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-01 with Computers categories.

This engaging and clearly written textbook/reference provides a must-have introduction to the rapidly emerging interdisciplinary field of data science. It focuses on the principles fundamental to becoming a good data scientist and the key skills needed to build systems for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data. The Data Science Design Manual is a source of practical insights that highlights what really matters in analyzing data, and provides an intuitive understanding of how these core concepts can be used. The book does not emphasize any particular programming language or suite of data-analysis tools, focusing instead on high-level discussion of important design principles. This easy-to-read text ideally serves the needs of undergraduate and early graduate students embarking on an “Introduction to Data Science” course. It reveals how this discipline sits at the intersection of statistics, computer science, and machine learning, with a distinct heft and character of its own. Practitioners in these and related fields will find this book perfect for self-study as well. Additional learning tools: Contains “War Stories,” offering perspectives on how data science applies in the real world Includes “Homework Problems,” providing a wide range of exercises and projects for self-study Provides a complete set of lecture slides and online video lectures at www.data-manual.com Provides “Take-Home Lessons,” emphasizing the big-picture concepts to learn from each chapter Recommends exciting “Kaggle Challenges” from the online platform Kaggle Highlights “False Starts,” revealing the subtle reasons why certain approaches fail Offers examples taken from the data science television show “The Quant Shop” (www.quant-shop.com)

Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition

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Author : Andrew Gelman
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2013-11-01

Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-01 with Mathematics categories.

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.