Bayesian Time Series Models
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Bayesian Time Series Models
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Author : David Barber
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-08-11
Bayesian Time Series Models written by David Barber and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-11 with Computers categories.
The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.
Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models
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Author : Mike West
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-05-02
Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models written by Mike West and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-02 with Mathematics categories.
This text is concerned with Bayesian learning, inference and forecasting in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models and their uses in forecasting and time series analysis. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting and time - ries analysis have been developed extensively during the last thirty years. Thisdevelopmenthasinvolvedthoroughinvestigationofmathematicaland statistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with applications in a variety of areas in commercial, industrial, scienti?c, and socio-economic ?elds. Much of the technical - velopment has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners and applied researchers. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, presented and illustrated here. In writing and revising this book, our primary goals have been to present a reasonably comprehensive view of Bayesian ideas and methods in m- elling and forecasting, particularly to provide a solid reference source for advanced university students and research workers.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling and analysis, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and emerging topics at research frontiers. The book presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. The authors also explore the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. They illustrate the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, and finance. Data sets, R and MATLAB® code, and other material are available on the authors’ websites. Along with core models and methods, this text offers sophisticated tools for analyzing challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas.
Time Series
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Author : Raquel Prado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-05-21
Time Series written by Raquel Prado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-21 with Mathematics categories.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian t
Bayesian Modeling Of Spatio Temporal Data With R
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Author : Sujit Sahu
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-02-23
Bayesian Modeling Of Spatio Temporal Data With R written by Sujit Sahu and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-23 with Mathematics categories.
Applied sciences, both physical and social, such as atmospheric, biological, climate, demographic, economic, ecological, environmental, oceanic and political, routinely gather large volumes of spatial and spatio-temporal data in order to make wide ranging inference and prediction. Ideally such inferential tasks should be approached through modelling, which aids in estimation of uncertainties in all conclusions drawn from such data. Unified Bayesian modelling, implemented through user friendly software packages, provides a crucial key to unlocking the full power of these methods for solving challenging practical problems. Key features of the book: • Accessible detailed discussion of a majority of all aspects of Bayesian methods and computations with worked examples, numerical illustrations and exercises • A spatial statistics jargon buster chapter that enables the reader to build up a vocabulary without getting clouded in modeling and technicalities • Computation and modeling illustrations are provided with the help of the dedicated R package bmstdr, allowing the reader to use well-known packages and platforms, such as rstan, INLA, spBayes, spTimer, spTDyn, CARBayes, CARBayesST, etc • Included are R code notes detailing the algorithms used to produce all the tables and figures, with data and code available via an online supplement • Two dedicated chapters discuss practical examples of spatio-temporal modeling of point referenced and areal unit data • Throughout, the emphasis has been on validating models by splitting data into test and training sets following on the philosophy of machine learning and data science This book is designed to make spatio-temporal modeling and analysis accessible and understandable to a wide audience of students and researchers, from mathematicians and statisticians to practitioners in the applied sciences. It presents most of the modeling with the help of R commands written in a purposefully developed R package to facilitate spatio-temporal modeling. It does not compromise on rigour, as it presents the underlying theories of Bayesian inference and computation in standalone chapters, which would be appeal those interested in the theoretical details. By avoiding hard core mathematics and calculus, this book aims to be a bridge that removes the statistical knowledge gap from among the applied scientists.
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods For Empirical Macroeconomics
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Author : Gary Koop
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2010
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods For Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Bayesian Models For Categorical Data
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Author : Peter Congdon
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2005-12-13
Bayesian Models For Categorical Data written by Peter Congdon and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-12-13 with Mathematics categories.
The use of Bayesian methods for the analysis of data has grown substantially in areas as diverse as applied statistics, psychology, economics and medical science. Bayesian Methods for Categorical Data sets out to demystify modern Bayesian methods, making them accessible to students and researchers alike. Emphasizing the use of statistical computing and applied data analysis, this book provides a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian methods of categorical outcomes. * Reviews recent Bayesian methodology for categorical outcomes (binary, count and multinomial data). * Considers missing data models techniques and non-standard models (ZIP and negative binomial). * Evaluates time series and spatio-temporal models for discrete data. * Features discussion of univariate and multivariate techniques. * Provides a set of downloadable worked examples with documented WinBUGS code, available from an ftp site. The author's previous 2 bestselling titles provided a comprehensive introduction to the theory and application of Bayesian models. Bayesian Models for Categorical Data continues to build upon this foundation by developing their application to categorical, or discrete data - one of the most common types of data available. The author's clear and logical approach makes the book accessible to a wide range of students and practitioners, including those dealing with categorical data in medicine, sociology, psychology and epidemiology.
Smoothness Priors Analysis Of Time Series
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Author : Genshiro Kitagawa
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Smoothness Priors Analysis Of Time Series written by Genshiro Kitagawa and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.
Bayesian Modeling And Computation In Python
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Author : Osvaldo A. Martin
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2021-12-28
Bayesian Modeling And Computation In Python written by Osvaldo A. Martin and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-28 with Computers categories.
Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.
Bayesian Inference Of State Space Models
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Author : Kostas Triantafyllopoulos
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2022-11-13
Bayesian Inference Of State Space Models written by Kostas Triantafyllopoulos and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-13 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.