Calculated Risks
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Calculated Risks
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2002
Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Education categories.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Maher Asaad Baker
language : en
Publisher: Maher Asaad Baker
Release Date : 2023-12-01
Calculated Risks written by Maher Asaad Baker and has been published by Maher Asaad Baker this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In CALCULATED RISKS, you will embark on a journey of self-discovery as you learn to evaluate uncertainties and seize opportunities properly. This book reveals the analytical thought processes, research methods, contingency planning, and risk mitigation strategies used by entrepreneurs, executives, and everyday individuals to make carefully considered choices and achieve meaningful success, even in turbulent times. Discover how to shift your thinking from impulsive decision-making based on fleeting feelings, to making strategic, evidence-backed bets on your future after rigorously examining all possible pros and cons. Learn to challenge limiting assumptions, think several moves ahead, and develop the wisdom to differentially manage risk versus reward. Walk in the footsteps of visionaries who transformed industries by calculating probabilities and weighing potential outcomes before taking a chance. By applying the frameworks in these pages, you will gain the confidence to pursue your boldest ambitions and navigate triumphs and setbacks, always with an eye towards long-term prosperity. CALCULATED RISKS guides strategic risk-taking in business, career, relationships, and life.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1994-01-28
Calculated Risks written by Joseph V. Rodricks and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-01-28 with Medical categories.
Public concern regarding environmental pollution and chemicals present in foods, consumer products, and the work place are at an all time high. Whilst there is widespread awareness, confusion still reigns, aggravated by conflicting reports concerning carcinogens in food and drinking water, or about chemicals present in medicines and household products that may cause birth defects. The effort to understand how these pollutants and chemical products may harm human health is led by scientists in the disciplines of toxicology, epidemiology and risk assessment. The central purpose of this book is to describe how scientists come to understand the toxic properties of such chemicals and the health risks they may pose. Rather than attempting to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence or corruption, this book explores the underlying scientific issues. It presents a practical and balanced clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2015-11-10
Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-10 with Social Science categories.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Reckoning With Risk
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2003-04-24
Reckoning With Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-24 with Mathematics categories.
"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Ted Blum
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023-07-30
Calculated Risks written by Ted Blum and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-30 with categories.
Some people face extraordinary and daunting challenges. Ted Blum's grandparents were forced to embark on a journey that would shape them and their future generations' lives. With the backdrop of Europe and World War II on their doorstep, Blum's family became outstanding examples of courage and determination as they sought out a new life in America. This story puts a human face to the countless masses who immigrated to the United States as the threat of war and persecution loomed. Dr. David Abraham, Senior Fellow of the American Leadership Forum, Professor of Urban Environmental Planning and Policy, Rice University "I thoroughly enjoyed reading Calculated Risks. First of all it was a learning experience for me with regards to: the fluidity of Central European country boundaries; the precious nature of cultural political identity differences among people, and how that can devolve into wars; and lastly the separate but endemic position that the Jews adopted in Central Europe. This historical book reads well and would be suitable for general as well as academic discourse."
Calculated Risks
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Author : Kenneth A. Rogers
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-04-15
Calculated Risks written by Kenneth A. Rogers and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This well-documented study examines one of the increasingly pressing problems for US homeland security: the storage and management of radioactive waste. Despite pressing homeland security and energy security concerns associated with highly radioactive waste, political considerations have prevented policy makers from adopting adequate long-term solutions to the problem. This book explores nuclear waste problems through the broader lens of federal, state and local government and the resultant constraints on policy that emerge within the American political system. Presenting specific case studies to highlight the deficiencies in current policy and planning as well as the possibility of terrorist activity, it is highly suited to courses on security studies and environmental politics.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Seanan McGuire
language : en
Publisher: Astra Publishing House
Release Date : 2021-02-23
Calculated Risks written by Seanan McGuire and has been published by Astra Publishing House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-23 with Fiction categories.
The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?
Calculated Risks
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Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2006-11-23
Calculated Risks written by Joseph V. Rodricks and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-11-23 with Science categories.
Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.
Calculated Risk
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Author : General Mark Clark
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1947
Calculated Risk written by General Mark Clark and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1947 with categories.