Reckoning With Risk
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Reckoning With Risk
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2003-04-24
Reckoning With Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-24 with Mathematics categories.
"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
Risk Savvy
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2014-04-17
Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-17 with Self-Help categories.
A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives. 'Gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' Steven Pinker 'Catchily optimistic and slyly funny' Guardian Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.
Dead Reckoning
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Author : Diane Vaughan
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2023-02-13
Dead Reckoning written by Diane Vaughan and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-13 with Social Science categories.
Vaughan unveils the complicated and high-pressure world of air traffic controllers as they navigate technology and political and public climates, and shows how they keep the skies so safe. When two airplanes were flown into the World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Americans watched in uncomprehending shock as first responders struggled to react to the situation on the ground. Congruently, another remarkable and heroic feat was taking place in the air: more than six hundred and fifty air traffic control facilities across the country coordinated their efforts to ground four thousand flights in just two hours—an achievement all the more impressive considering the unprecedented nature of the task. In Dead Reckoning, Diane Vaughan explores the complex work of air traffic controllers, work that is built upon a close relationship between human organizational systems and technology and is remarkably safe given the high level of risk. Vaughan observed the distinct skill sets of air traffic controllers and the ways their workplaces changed to adapt to technological developments and public and political pressures. She chronicles the ways these forces affected their jobs, from their relationships with one another and the layouts of their workspace to their understanding of their job and its place in society. The result is a nuanced and engaging look at an essential role that demands great coordination, collaboration, and focus—a role that technology will likely never be able to replace. Even as the book conveys warnings about complex systems and the liabilities of technological and organizational innovation, it shows the kinds of problem-solving solutions that evolved over time and the importance of people.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2015-11-10
Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-10 with Social Science categories.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Lolita In The Afterlife
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Author : Jenny Minton Quigley
language : en
Publisher: Vintage
Release Date : 2021-03-16
Lolita In The Afterlife written by Jenny Minton Quigley and has been published by Vintage this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-16 with Literary Criticism categories.
A vibrant collection of sharp and essential modern pieces on Vladimir Nabokov’s perennially provocative book—with original contributions from a stellar cast of prominent twenty-first century writers. In 1958, Vladimir Nabokov’s Lolita was published in the United States to immediate controversy and bestsellerdom. More than sixty years later, this phenomenal novel generates as much buzz as it did when originally published. Central to countless issues at the forefront of our national discourse—art and politics, race and whiteness, gender and power, sexual trauma—Lolita lives on, in an afterlife as blinding as a supernova. Lolita in the Afterlife is edited by the daughter of Lolita’s original publisher in America. WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY Robin Givhan • Aleksandar Hemon • Jim Shepard • Emily Mortimer • Laura Lippman • Erika L. Sánchez • Sarah Weinman • Andre Dubus III • Mary Gaitskill • Zainab Salbi • Christina Baker Kline • Ian Frazier • Cheryl Strayed • Sloane Crosley • Victor LaValle • Jill Kargman • Lila Azam Zanganeh • Roxane Gay • Claire Dederer • Jessica Shattuck • Stacy Schiff • Susan Choi • Kate Elizabeth Russell • Tom Bissell • Kira Von Eichel • Bindu Bansinath • Dani Shapiro • Alexander Chee • Lauren Groff • Morgan Jerkins
Risk Reward
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Author : Anne Kreamer
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-06-09
Risk Reward written by Anne Kreamer and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
A persuasive and eye-opening look at the importance of embracing risk in our working lives—and how to use it to achieve lifelong career success Some of us relish the chance to fly without a net, others . . . not so much. But no matter how adventurous we might be in our personal lives, most of us are wary of allowing risk into our careers. With an economy in constant flux and a job market in which uncertainty is the only constant, stepping outside one’s comfort zone can feel dangerous. But as the findings of this eye-opening and urgent book attest, the avoidance of risk might pose the greatest danger of all to our career prospects. In Risk/Reward, trend-spotter and career guru Anne Kreamer makes the compelling case that embracing risk is essential to managing a twenty-first-century career. Risk-taking isn’t just for entrepreneurs, nor does it require working on a figurative tightrope. Rather, Kreamer says, conscious, consistent, and modest risk-taking can help us become more able to recognize opportunity when it appears, and more likely to seize the chance to make the right change at the right moment. Risk/Reward presents a framework for making the most of today’s ever-evolving workplace and turning risk-taking into a daily practice. Using proprietary data from three national studies about the American worker, Kreamer explores the importance of career risk-taking through profiles of four Risk/Reward personality types: Pioneers, Thinkers, Defenders, and Drifters. She presents a Risk/Reward Matrix that anyone can use to identify his or her own innate risk threshold, and she identifies constructive ways to implement risk in everyday situations—from initiating an uncomfortable conversation with a boss to sharing out-of-the-box ideas with colleagues or constructively challenging long-held practices in an organization. Peppered throughout Risk/Reward are insights and hard-won wisdom from notable achievers such as bestselling author Anna Quindlen, journalist Jane Pauley, CNBC financial maven Jim Cramer, thought leader Po Bronson, and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Timely and insightful, Risk/Reward is a unique blend of practical and inspirational wisdom that even the most risk-averse person can harness on the path toward success and fulfillment. Praise for Anne Kreamer’s It’s Always Personal: Navigating Emotion in the New Workplace “A stimulating read bolstered by . . . some of the best recent work on emotional intelligence and the science of happiness.”—The Wall Street Journal “So what should be the rules and boundaries for showing how you feel while you work? That’s a question asked and answered in Anne Kreamer’s fascinating . . . look at an issue that rarely gets discussed.”—The Washington Post “Finally, someone is willing to unpack the morass of anger, anxiety, sadness, and joy that drives the workday. . . . [Kreamer] has hit the ‘It’s about time!’ button.”—Elle “[A] lively, well-researched exploration of emotions on the job.”—Oprah.com “Explores how to be true to your ‘emotional flashpoints—anger, fear, anxiety, empathy, happiness and crying’—without sabotaging your career.”—The New York Times Book Review
Understanding And Managing Model Risk
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Author : Massimo Morini
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-10-20
Understanding And Managing Model Risk written by Massimo Morini and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-20 with Business & Economics categories.
A guide to the validation and risk management of quantitative models used for pricing and hedging Whereas the majority of quantitative finance books focus on mathematics and risk management books focus on regulatory aspects, this book addresses the elements missed by this literature--the risks of the models themselves. This book starts from regulatory issues, but translates them into practical suggestions to reduce the likelihood of model losses, basing model risk and validation on market experience and on a wide range of real-world examples, with a high level of detail and precise operative indications.
The Reckoning
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Author : Jacob Soll
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2014-04-29
The Reckoning written by Jacob Soll and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-29 with History categories.
Whether building a road or fighting a war, leaders from ancient Mesopotamia to the present have relied on financial accounting to track their state's assets and guide its policies. Basic accounting tools such as auditing and double-entry bookkeeping form the basis of modern capitalism and the nation-state. Yet our appreciation for accounting and its formative role throughout history remains minimal at best-and we remain ignorant at our peril. The 2008 financial crisis is only the most recent example of how poor or risky practices can shake, and even bring down, entire societies. In The Reckoning, historian and MacArthur "Genius" Award-winner Jacob Soll presents a sweeping history of accounting, drawing on a wealth of examples from over a millennia of human history to reveal how accounting has shaped kingdoms, empires, and entire civilizations. The Medici family of 15th century Florence used the double-entry method to win the loyalty of their clients, but eventually began to misrepresent their accounts, ultimately contributing to the economic decline of the Florentine state itself. In the 17th and 18th centuries, European rulers shunned honest accounting, understanding that accurate bookkeeping would constrain their spending and throw their legitimacy into question. And in fact, when King Louis XVI's director of finances published the crown's accounts in 1781, his revelations provoked a public outcry that helped to fuel the French Revolution. When transparent accounting finally took hold in the 19th Century, the practice helped England establish a global empire. But both inept and willfully misused accounting persist, as the catastrophic Stock Market Crash of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2008 have made all too clear. A masterwork of economic and political history, and a radically new perspective on the recent past, The Reckoning compels us to see how accounting is an essential instrument of great institutions and nations-and one that, in our increasingly transparent and interconnected world, has never been more vital.
Road To Reckoning
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Author : Robert Lautner
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2015-01-06
Road To Reckoning written by Robert Lautner and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-06 with Fiction categories.
When his traveling salesman father is murdered in 19th-century Pennsylvania, spirited 12-year-old Thomas forges an unlikely partnership with surly ex-ranger, Henry, who embarks on a perilous quest for vengeance that is challenged by dangerous thieves.
Winter S Reckoning
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Author : Adele Holmes, M.D.
language : en
Publisher: She Writes Press
Release Date : 2022-08-09
Winter S Reckoning written by Adele Holmes, M.D. and has been published by She Writes Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-09 with Fiction categories.
William Faulkner Literary Competition, Honorable Mention Forty-six-year-old Madeline Fairbanks has no use for ideas like “separation of the races” or “men as the superior sex.” There are many in her dying Southern Appalachian town who are upset by her socially progressive views, but for years—partly due to her late husband’s still-powerful influence, and partly due to her skill as a healer in a remote town with no doctor of its own—folks have been willing to turn a blind eye to her “transgressions.” Even Maddie’s decision to take on a Black apprentice, Ren Morgan, goes largely unchallenged by her white neighbors, though it’s certainly grumbled about. But when a charismatic and power-hungry new reverend blows into town in 1917 and begins to preach about the importance of racial segregation, the long-idle local KKK chapter fires back into action—and places Maddie and her friends in Jamesville’s Black community squarely in their sights. Maddie had better stop intermingling with Black folks, discontinue her herbalistic “witchcraft,” and leave town immediately, they threaten, or they’ll lynch Ren’s father, Daniel. Faced with this decision, Maddie is terrified . . . and torn. Will she bow to their demands and walk away—or will she fight to keep the home she’s built in Jamesville and protect the future of the people she loves, both Black and white?