Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Release Date : 2020-03-05
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and has been published by Pickle Partners Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-05 with History categories.
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Routledge Handbook Of Bounded Rationality
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Author : Riccardo Viale
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-12-02
Routledge Handbook Of Bounded Rationality written by Riccardo Viale and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-05-28
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-28 with Political Science categories.
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Noise
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: HarperCollins UK
Release Date : 2021-05-18
Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by HarperCollins UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-18 with Psychology categories.
THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER ‘A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding’ SUNDAY TIMES
Transdisciplinary Perspectives On Risk Management And Cyber Intelligence
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Author : Dall'Acqua, Luisa
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2020-08-28
Transdisciplinary Perspectives On Risk Management And Cyber Intelligence written by Dall'Acqua, Luisa and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-28 with Computers categories.
The emergence of artificial intelligence has created a vast amount of advancements within various professional sectors and has transformed the way organizations conduct themselves. The implementation of intelligent systems has assisted with developing traditional processes including decision making, risk management, and security. An area that requires significant attention and research is how these companies are becoming accustomed to computer intelligence and applying this technology to their everyday practices. Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the application of intelligent systems within various professional sectors as well as the exploration of theories and empirical findings. While highlighting topics such as decision making, cognitive science, and knowledge management, this publication explores the management of risk and uncertainty using training exercises, as well as the development of managerial intelligence competency. This book is ideally designed for practitioners, educators, researchers, policymakers, managers, developers, analysts, politicians, and students seeking current research on modern approaches to the analysis and performance of cyber intelligence.
Time Perspective
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Author : Aleksandra Kostić
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-29
Time Perspective written by Aleksandra Kostić and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-29 with Psychology categories.
This book focusses on the theory and application of ‘time perspective theory’. Time perspective can be an important factor in determining psychological well-being and the way we see our world and others around us. The unique contemporary nature of this theory’s evolution has spurred great interest over the last 20 years. The editors responded to this interest by bringing together contributors across a multitude of subjects and perspectives to facilitate an unprecedented discussion on the topic; covering areas such as financial health, psychotherapy across adulthood and old age, prenatal past, metacognition, community and change, fear of crime and intrinsic motivations. The interdisciplinary nature of this project makes it of interest to a wide cross-section of academics and practitioners including psychologist, social workers, criminologists and anyone who has or wishes to adopted time perspective theorization to assist them in their understanding.
Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Cognitive styles categories.
The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.
Cases In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-04-28
Cases In Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-28 with Political Science categories.
In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.