Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making
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Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Cognitive styles categories.
The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Release Date : 2020-03-05
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and has been published by Pickle Partners Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-05 with History categories.
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Noise
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: HarperCollins UK
Release Date : 2021-05-18
Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by HarperCollins UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-18 with Psychology categories.
THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER ‘A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding’ SUNDAY TIMES
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Judgment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1982-04-30
Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982-04-30 with Psychology categories.
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Perception And Misperception In International Politics
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Author : Robert Jervis
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-05-02
Perception And Misperception In International Politics written by Robert Jervis and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-02 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as "the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology." This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book's lasting impact and legacy, particularly in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making, and brings that analysis up to date by discussing the relevant psychological research over the past forty years. Jervis describes the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one's influence). He then tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history. Perception and Misperception in International Politics is essential for understanding international relations today.
Thinking Fast And Slow
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2011
Thinking Fast And Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.
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Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Randolph H. Pherson
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2019-12-05
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis written by Randolph H. Pherson and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-05 with Political Science categories.
The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
Challenges In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Timothy Walton
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-08-30
Challenges In Intelligence Analysis written by Timothy Walton and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-30 with History categories.
In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.
Self Insight
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Author : David Dunning
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2012-10-12
Self Insight written by David Dunning and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-12 with Psychology categories.
People base thousands of choices across a lifetime on the views they hold of their skill and moral character, yet a growing body of research in psychology shows that such self-views are often misguided or misinformed. Anyone who has dealt with others in the classroom, in the workplace, in the medical office, or on the therapist’s couch has probably experienced people whose opinions of themselves depart from the objectively possible. This book outlines some of the common errors that people make when they evaluate themselves. It also describes the many psychological barriers - some that people build by their own hand - that prevent individuals from achieving self-insight about their ability and character. The first section of the book focuses on mistaken views of competence, and explores why people often remain blissfully unaware of their incompetence and personality flaws. The second section focuses on faulty views of character, and explores why people tend to perceive they are more unique and special than they really are, why people tend to possess inflated opinions of their moral fiber that are not matched by their deeds, and why people fail to anticipate the impact that emotions have on their choices and actions. The book will be of great interest to students and researchers in social, personality, and cognitive psychology, but, through the accessibility of its writing style, it will also appeal to those outside of academic psychology with an interest in the psychological processes that lead to our self-insight.