Cointegration And Long Horizon Forecasting
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Cointegration And Long Horizon Forecasting
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Author : Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-05-01
Cointegration And Long Horizon Forecasting written by Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.
Cointegration And Long Horizon Forecasting
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Author : Peter Christoffersen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Cointegration And Long Horizon Forecasting written by Peter Christoffersen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
We consider the forecasting of cointegrated variables, and we show that at long horizonsquot; nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariatequot; forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. quot; Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracyquot; measures they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships amongquot; variables and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.
Long
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Author : Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-01-01
Long written by Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater than one time period. We also show that in small to medium samples the long-horizon procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates, diagnostic statistics and graphical evidence incorrectly suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable.
Cointegration Causality And Forecasting
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Author : Halbert White
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 1999
Cointegration Causality And Forecasting written by Halbert White and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.
Forecasting Economic Time Series
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Author : Michael Clements
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1998-10-08
Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty
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Author : David E. Rapach
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2008-02-29
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2011-06-29
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Estimation Of Stochastic Processes With Stationary Increments And Cointegrated Sequences
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Author : Maksym Luz
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2019-09-20
Estimation Of Stochastic Processes With Stationary Increments And Cointegrated Sequences written by Maksym Luz and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-20 with Mathematics categories.
Estimation of Stochastic Processes is intended for researchers in the field of econometrics, financial mathematics, statistics or signal processing. This book gives a deep understanding of spectral theory and estimation techniques for stochastic processes with stationary increments. It focuses on the estimation of functionals of unobserved values for stochastic processes with stationary increments, including ARIMA processes, seasonal time series and a class of cointegrated sequences. Furthermore, this book presents solutions to extrapolation (forecast), interpolation (missed values estimation) and filtering (smoothing) problems based on observations with and without noise, in discrete and continuous time domains. Extending the classical approach applied when the spectral densities of the processes are known, the minimax method of estimation is developed for a case where the spectral information is incomplete and the relations that determine the least favorable spectral densities for the optimal estimations are found.
Recent Developments In Cointegration
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Author : Katarina Juselius
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2018-07-05
Recent Developments In Cointegration written by Katarina Juselius and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-05 with Electronic books categories.
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Recent Developments in Cointegration" that was published in Econometrics
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : G. Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2006-07-14
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.