Commodity Price Volatility And The Sources Of Growth
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Commodity Price Volatility And The Sources Of Growth
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Commodity Price Volatility And The Sources Of Growth written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.
Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-02-15
Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
Commodity Price Movements And Banking Crises
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Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-06
Commodity Price Movements And Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-06 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
The Economics Of Food Price Volatility
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Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2014-10-14
The Economics Of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.
"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Commodity Markets
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Author : John Baffes
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-12-07
Commodity Markets written by John Baffes and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford
The Relative Volatility Of Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-12-01
The Relative Volatility Of Commodity Prices written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, even though most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities may be less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods.
The Comovement In Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Ron Alquist
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-05
The Comovement In Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Commodities
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Author : M. A. H. Dempster
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-11-05
Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After an extensive theoretical and practical introduction, the book is divided into four parts: Oil Products – considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities – examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets – investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets – supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets With contributions from well-known academics and practitioners, this volume includes coverage of the fundamental theory of futures/forwards and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets. The contributions to Sections I and II of this volume, which treat storable or agricultural commodities, take speculation into account through a consideration of markets over time being either in backwardation or contango. Up-to-date considerations of both trading and investment are included in Sections I, II, and III. The book also reviews the effects of urbanization and the expanding middle-class population on commodities.
Food Price Volatility And Its Implications For Food Security And Policy
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Author : Matthias Kalkuhl
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-04-12
Food Price Volatility And Its Implications For Food Security And Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Managing Global Growth Risks And Commodity Price Shocks Vulnerabilities And Policy Challenges For Low Income Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-09-21
Managing Global Growth Risks And Commodity Price Shocks Vulnerabilities And Policy Challenges For Low Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-21 with Business & Economics categories.
As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.