Commodity Prices And The New Inflation
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Commodity Prices And The New Inflation
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Author : Barry Bosworth
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 1982
Commodity Prices And The New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Business & Economics categories.
The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1988-10-03
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Commodity Prices And Inflation
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1989-09-14
Commodity Prices And Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-09-14 with Business & Economics categories.
A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the model. Commodity price levels tend to be cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Commodity price movements contribute weakly to predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Commodity Prices And Inflation Expectations In The United States
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Author : Oya Celasun
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-03-01
Commodity Prices And Inflation Expectations In The United States written by Oya Celasun and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
Commodity Prices And Markets
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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2011-03
Commodity Prices And Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation
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Author : James M. Boughton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation written by James M. Boughton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Commercial products categories.
This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
Commodity Prices And Markets
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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2011-02-15
Commodity Prices And Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Consumers And Food Price Inflation
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Author : Randy Schnepf
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2011-08
Consumers And Food Price Inflation written by Randy Schnepf and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08 with Business & Economics categories.
The heightened commodity price volatility of 2008 and 2010 and the subsequent acceleration in U.S. food price inflation associated with those market shifts generated questions about farm and food price movements. This report addresses the nature and measurement of retail food price inflation. Contents of this report: Intro.; Consumer Demand; The Consumer Price Index (CPI); Consumer Income and Expenditures; Recent Food Price Inflation; Federal Spending for Domestic Food Assistance Programs: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly Food Stamps); Child Nutrition; The WIC Program; Additional Commodity Assistance Programs; Foreign Food Aid. Charts and tables. A print on demand report.
Commodities As An Asset Class
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Author : Alan G. Futerman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-11-03
Commodities As An Asset Class written by Alan G. Futerman and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This book challenges the notion that commodities are always good hedges against inflation, which is the conventional belief today in financial markets. Specifically, it focuses on gold as a traditional hedge and the ways in which crypto assets are argued to be positioned as an alternative hedge against inflationary risk. The book engages with emerging debates around the performance of gold since the 2008 financial crisis, analyzing its characteristics, relationship with inflation, and the role of mining companies, and discusses ways that cryptocurrencies have replaced precious metals as an attractive asset class during an inflationary scenario. In considering the case of crypto as being or not a good inflation hedge, the book devotes particular attention to the theoretical financial and macroeconomic implications of a monetary system based on Bitcoin, dealing with the concept of money and the determination of Bitcoin’s supply and purchasing power. Additionally, it outlines the consequences that such a system would entail for the banking industry, and financial conditions involving interest rates, exchange rates, and the inflation-deflation dynamic. The book also analyses the relative impact of past and future events on the different commodity families. This work will be of interest to students and researchers in financial economics, macroeconomics, and monetary economics, as well as analysts and traders in financial and commodity markets.
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Commodity Prices
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Author : Jorge Miranda-Pinto
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-10
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Commodity Prices written by Jorge Miranda-Pinto and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Monetary policy influences inflation dynamics by exerting impact on a diverse array of commodity prices. At high frequencies, we show that a 10 basis points increase in US monetary policy rate reduces commodity prices between 0.5% and 2.5%, after 18 to 24 business days. Beyond the dollar appreciation channel, the effects are larger for highly storable and industrial commodities, consistent with the cost of carry and the expected demand channel. We then study the quantitative importance of the commodity-price channel of monetary policy on domestic and international inflation at longer horizons (6-36 months). The results indicate that the response of commodity prices—oil, base metals, and food prices—to monetary policy accounts for 47% of the total effect of US monetary policy on US headline inflation, and 57% of the effect of US monetary policy on other countries’ headline inflation. The commodity price channel on core inflation is smaller and mainly driven by base metal prices. Finally, the commodity-price channel of ECB monetary policy is smaller, and it mainly operates through its effect on energy prices.