Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation
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Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1988-10-03
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation
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Author : James M. Boughton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988
Commodity Prices As A Leading Indicator Of Inflation written by James M. Boughton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Commercial products categories.
This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
Leading Economic Indicators
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Author : Kajal Lahiri
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1991
Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Business & Economics categories.
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Are Commodity Prices Leading Indicators Of Oecd Prices
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Author : Martine Durand
language : en
Publisher: OECD
Release Date : 1988
Are Commodity Prices Leading Indicators Of Oecd Prices written by Martine Durand and has been published by OECD this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Commercial products categories.
Commodity Prices And The New Inflation
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Author : Barry Bosworth
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 1982
Commodity Prices And The New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Business & Economics categories.
The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.
Commodity Prices And Inflation
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1989-09-14
Commodity Prices And Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-09-14 with Business & Economics categories.
A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the model. Commodity price levels tend to be cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Commodity price movements contribute weakly to predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.
Guide To Economic Indicators
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Author : The Economist
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-09-20
Guide To Economic Indicators written by The Economist and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The ultimate resource for understanding and interpreting important economic figures Economic indicators are increasingly complicated to compute and comprehend. Yet in today's challenging economic environment, economic indicators are also more important than ever. This highly accessible seventh edition of the Guide to Economic Indicators presents the complicated subject of economic indicators in a conversational tone, helping readers to quickly gain an understanding of economic indicators, including why they're important, how to interpret them, and their reliability in predicting future economic performance. The book Describes how economic indicators can be manipulated to demonstrate almost any business cycle Examines how GDP, invisible balances, the terms of trade, and unemployment are used to interpret economic data Includes over ninety tables and charts Fully updated and revised, the Guide to Economic Indicators, 7th Edition is an invaluable resource for anyone searching for a clear explanation of the world's underlying economic realities.
World Commodity Prices As A Forecasting Tool For Retail Prices
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Author : Mr.John Thornton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-06-01
World Commodity Prices As A Forecasting Tool For Retail Prices written by Mr.John Thornton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices. The results show noncointegration and no unidirectional Granger causality from commodity to retail prices. These findings suggest that little may be gained from using developments in commodity prices to forecast movements in retail prices in the inflation-targeting framework followed by the U.K. monetary authorities.
Recent Inflationary Trends In World Commodities Markets
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Author : Noureddine Krichene
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2008-05-01
Recent Inflationary Trends In World Commodities Markets written by Noureddine Krichene and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-05-01 with categories.
Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots. In contrast, consumer price indices, a leading indicator for monetary policy, were showing almost no inflation and posed a price puzzle insofar their evolution was not responsive to record low interest rates, double digit commodities inflation, and sharp exchange rate depreciation. Commodities prices were shown to be driven by one common trend, identified as a monetary shock. Policy makers may have to face a policy dilemma: maintain monetary policy stance with accelerating commodities price inflation, subsequent world recession, and financial disorder; or tighten monetary policy with subsequent world recession followed by recovery and financial and price stability.
World Economic And Financial Surveys
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1990-01-01
World Economic And Financial Surveys written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses commodity prices might serve as a useful leading indicator of inflation, based on the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. They thus may have a tendency to respond relatively quickly, especially in response to monetary disturbances. Estimation of alternative commodity-price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, was not fully successful. The commodity prices do have a useful role to play as an aid in predicting inflation, so long as one is careful to interpret the relationships qualitatively and in the context of more general macroeconomic developments. The ratio of consumer to commodity price movements’ changes over time, and the relative price of commodities undergoes long sustained swings; nonetheless, the qualitative linkages are quite evident in the data. Perhaps most importantly, turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.