Comparing The Performance Of Logit And Probit Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies
DOWNLOAD
Download Comparing The Performance Of Logit And Probit Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Comparing The Performance Of Logit And Probit Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Comparing The Performance Of Logit And Probit Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Fabio Comelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-17
Comparing The Performance Of Logit And Probit Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
Comparing Parametric And Non Parametric Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Fabio Comelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-30
Comparing Parametric And Non Parametric Early Warning Systems For Currency Crises In Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, as the total misclassification error of the former is lower than that of the latter. In addition, we find that the performances of the parametric and non-parametric EWS do not improve if the policymaker becomes more prudent. From a policy perspective, the policymaker faces the standard trade-off when using EWS. Greater prudence allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective macroeconomic policies prematurely.
Assessing Financial Vulnerability
DOWNLOAD
Author : Morris Goldstein
language : en
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Release Date : 2000
Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and has been published by Peterson Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Business & Economics categories.
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Early Warning Systems
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-02-01
Early Warning Systems written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.
Research Bulletin June 2014
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-09
Research Bulletin June 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Business Intelligence In Economic Forecasting Technologies And Techniques
DOWNLOAD
Author : Wang, Jue
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2010-06-30
Business Intelligence In Economic Forecasting Technologies And Techniques written by Wang, Jue and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-06-30 with Computers categories.
With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, the field of economic forecasting continues its expeditious advancement, providing business and government with applicable technologies. This book discusses various business intelligence techniques including neural networks, support vector machine, genetic programming, clustering analysis, TEI@I, fuzzy systems, text mining, and many more. It serves as a valuable reference for professionals and researchers interested in BI technologies and their practical applications in economic forecasting, as well as policy makers in business organizations and governments.
Ieis2019
DOWNLOAD
Author : Menggang Li
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-07-02
Ieis2019 written by Menggang Li and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents a range of recent advances concerning industrial restructuring strategies, industrial organization, industrial policy, departmental economic research, industrial competitiveness, regional industrial structure, national industrial economic security theory and empirical research. Successfully combining theory and practice, the book gathers the outcomes of the “6th International Conference on Industrial Economics System and Industrial Security Engineering”, which was held at the University of Maryland, USA.
Evolution And Performance Of Exchange Rate Regimes
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-12-01
Evolution And Performance Of Exchange Rate Regimes written by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.
Economic And Social Survey Of Asia And The Pacific 2000
DOWNLOAD
Author : United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
language : en
Publisher: United Nations
Release Date : 2000-08-04
Economic And Social Survey Of Asia And The Pacific 2000 written by United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and has been published by United Nations this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-08-04 with Political Science categories.
This survey analyzes recent economic and social developments in the region with particular emphasis on economic and social policy issues and broad development strategies. An essential resource for every multinational corporation intending to expand their business into Asia or to invest in the region.
Global Waves Of Debt
DOWNLOAD
Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.