Current Account Reversals

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Current Account Reversals

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Author : Barry J. Eichengreen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Current Account Reversals written by Barry J. Eichengreen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Financial crises categories.

"Using panel data and case studies, we analyze the pre-1970 history of international capital flows and current account reversals. Considering a sample of emerging markets and advanced economies with per capita GDPs at least 60 per cent those of the lead country, we show that the incidence of reversals has been unusually great in recent years. The only prior period that matched the last three decades in terms of the frequency and magnitude of reversals was the 1920s and 1930s, decades notorious for the instability of capital flows. In contrast, reversals were both less common and smaller in the Bretton Woods and pre-World War I gold standard eras"--NBER website

Do Workers Remittances Reduce The Probability Of Current Account Reversals

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Author : Matteo Bugamelli
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005

Do Workers Remittances Reduce The Probability Of Current Account Reversals written by Matteo Bugamelli and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Balance of payments categories.

The authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers' remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows: these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies, might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment. The authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect. In particular, they show that a high level of remittances, as a ratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP) and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly, for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and the probability of current account reversals. The results point also to a threshold effect of remittances: the mechanisms just described are, in fact, much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of GDP.

Thirty Years Of Current Account Imbalances Current Account Reversals And Sudden Stops

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Author : Sebastian Edwards
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

Thirty Years Of Current Account Imbalances Current Account Reversals And Sudden Stops written by Sebastian Edwards and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Accounts current categories.

"In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The probability of a country experiencing a reversal is captured by a small number of variables that include the (lagged) current account to GDP ratio, the external debt to GDP ratio, the level of international reserves, domestic credit creation, and debt services. (c) Current account reversals have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investments. (d) There is persuasive evidence indicating that the negative effect of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country's degree of openness. More open countries will suffer less in terms of lower growth than countries with a lower degree of openness. (e) I was unable to find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries with a higher degree of dollarization are more severely affected by current account reversals than countries with a lower degree of dollarization. And, (f) the empirical analysis suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate the shocks stemming from a reversal better than countries with more rigid exchange rate regime"--NBER website

Current Account Reversals And Currency Crises

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Author : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-06-01

Current Account Reversals And Currency Crises written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Rebalancing In The Euro Area And Cyclicality Of Current Account Adjustments

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Author : Mr.Thierry Tressel
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-07-22

Rebalancing In The Euro Area And Cyclicality Of Current Account Adjustments written by Mr.Thierry Tressel and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.

The paper examines progress with the external rebalancing of euro area deficit countries. Relative prices are adjusting at different pace across countries and with different compositions of wage cuts and labor shedding. There is so far limited evidence of resource re-allocation from non-tradable to tradable sectors, while improved export performance is still dependent on external demand from the rest of world. Current account adjustments have taken place, reflecting structural changes but also cyclical forces, suggesting that part of the improvements may unwind when cyclical conditions improve. Looking ahead, relying only on relative price adjustments (which adversely affects demand) to rebalance the euro area could prove very challenging. Structural reforms will play an important role in the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector and the associated relative price adjustment, while boosting non-price and price competitiveness.

Reforms And External Imbalances

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Author : Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-03-28

Reforms And External Imbalances written by Rabah Arezki and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.

World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.

Growth Following Investment And Consumption Driven Current Account Crises

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Author : Mr.Alexander Klemm
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-23

Growth Following Investment And Consumption Driven Current Account Crises written by Mr.Alexander Klemm and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.

Current account deficits imply increasing liabilities to the rest of the world. External sustainability then depends on whether these can be met in the future without defaulting, i.e., normally through trade account surpluses. To run such surpluses without a fall in consumption, capital inflows should be used to increase future output. This paper tentatively finds that current account deficits reversals that follow investment booms are marked by better growth performance than those following consumption booms. It also shows that many recent large current account deficits have been predominantly the result of consumption or non-productive investment booms.

Imf Staff Papers Volume 51 Special Issue Imf Fourth Annual Research Conference

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Author : Mr.Ashoka Mody
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2004-06-10

Imf Staff Papers Volume 51 Special Issue Imf Fourth Annual Research Conference written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-10 with Business & Economics categories.

This is the 2004 (Volume 51) Special Issue of IMF Staff Papers, which includes 6 selected papers (from more than 20) that were presented at the IMF's Fourth Annual Research Conference, November 6-7, 2003.

Current Account Reversals And Currency Crises

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Author : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Current Account Reversals And Currency Crises written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.

This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Exchange Rate Regimes And The Stability Of The International Monetary System

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Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-03-15

Exchange Rate Regimes And The Stability Of The International Monetary System written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.

The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the system (external adjustment, trade integration, capital flows); and potential sources of stress to the international monetary system.